Bush has an excellent chance to win WI and IA, and a modest chance to win MN. If the polls mean anything.
According to RealClear list of poll results
Bush has been ahead or tied in the last 4 polls from WI avergae +6, he has been ahead in the last 4 IA polls, average +4, but he has led in only 1 of the last 3 polls from MN where the average is a tie.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html#ia
Similarly the Hedgehog list shows Bush leaidng in IA in all 7 polls since the RNC, in WI Bush has led in the 6/7 polls since the RNC, while in MN he has led in only 2/6 polls.
http://www.geocities.com/hedgehogreport/bushkerry2004state.html
So unless the national race changes significantly, Bush should win 2 out of 3 of the upper midwest
Well said. I agree completely.
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