Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[pepper11]

This was a pretty good sample for McCain I think. I believe the sample that dropped out was +6 or 7 for McCain. meaning the latest was + 3 or + 4, given the 1 point decline. 

[pepper11]

Obama's 'best individual night in weeks' drops off tomorrow.  What's up momentum change. 

[pepper11]

Don't know about Rowan's Gallups numbers but his Rasmussen numbers are WAY off.

[pepper11]

I do not yet see any numbers posted on Gallup today. Where are you getting this?

[pepper11]

Got it. Weird that they didn't update it as they normally do.

Good news for McCain, especially since they noted in Wednesday's update that Tuesday (the day that fell off) was a very good sample for McCain. This one must have been even better.

[pepper11]

Their regular update isn't posted for some reason, only the numbers as Rowan described.

[pepper11]

When a know pro-McCain sample falls off and McCain gains 2 points among LVs, its not bad news.  Might now be ideal, but it sure points to at least a decent McCain sample. Plus, an O+3 average among LVs is the best its been thus far.

[pepper11]

5-6 days ago Obama had just about his largest lead to date in the majority of the trackers.  Since then McCain has gained significant ground in 6 of the 8 trackers.  Data below.

Somehow, I would imagine that when I look at 538s regression tonight, it will magically show, yet again, that despite the polls showing otherwise, that the race is indeed flat.  

Ras: was O + 8, nowO + 5.                     McCain gains 3.
ABC/Post: was O + 11, now O + 7          McCain gains 4.
Zogby: was O + 12, now O + 4.              McCain gains 8
Kos: was O + 12, now O + 7.                  McCain gains 5.
IBD: was O + 6, now O + 3.                     McCain gains 3.
Gallup Trad: was O + 7, now O + 2        McCain gains 5

The sole exceptions are Battleground ang Hotline which show a stable race.