SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS: IL, IN, KY, MI, MD, MO, OH, WV

[nkpatel1279]

Democrats lost 6 seats in the US Senate including Barack Obama's old US Senate Seat in IL.
ND,AR,and IN were expected to Republican. Hoeven-ND goes from being the states popular Governor to Popular US Senator. Boozman-AR Santorumizes Blanche-D.
Coats-IN gets to be US Senator again- any chance Evan Bayh-who is running for Governor in 2012- is going to ran for the US Senate-his old US House Seat in 2022.
WI (Feingold-D narrowly loses re-election to Johnson-R)-less than 5% margin. 52-47. Johnson-R is going to be a one termer in 2016. Had Feingold-D ran a more aggressive campaign. Outcome would have been a little different.
PA(Toomey-R) narrowly defeats Sestak-D) 51-49. Same situation as WI- Had Sestak ran a more aggressive campaign- Outcome would have been a little different.  Toomey-R is going to be a one termer in 2016.
IL(Kirk-R)narrowly defeats Giannoulias-D by a 48-46.  Giannoulias-D was not the right candidate for this election cycle.  Had Hynes-D ran for the US Senate instead of Alexi. The IL US Senate Seat would have remained in the Democratic collumn. Hynes-D was a generic DEM nominee who carried little negative baggage.  Giannoulias-D should have ran for re-election as St Treasurer- He would have won re-election. then ran for US Senate  or Governor in 2014
The big question is does Giannoulias have a future in Statewide Electoral politics. Kirk-R is going to be a one termer in 2016.  

[nkpatel1279]

Democrats held onto CA,NV,and WV. due to Republicans nominating weak candidates and Boxer-CA and Reid-NV running aggressive campaigns.
I expect Bennet-CO and Murray-WA to win re-election. In CO- Bennet-D was a first time candidate- he is going to be US Senator for life. In WA- Murray-D ran against a formidable challenger during a anti DEM anti incumbent wave year.
The breakdown is going to 53-47.
US Senators like Snowe-ME,Collins-ME,Brown-MA,and Kirk-IL are going to be closely watched. Do they cooperate with Senate Democrats or the Obama Whitehouse- which may cause them to get teabagged in their upcoming re-election campaign- causing these seats to Democratic ie 2010 DE. or do they obstruct causing them especially Brown-MA and Kirk-IL to lose re-election to Democratic challenger.
The only DEM US Senate that may be a pain is going to Nelson-NE. He is going to lose re-election Heineman-assuming he runs. plus 2006 class DEM ie Tester-MT if and only if Rehberg runs. McCaskill-MO and possibly Brown-OH and Webb-VA are likely to go down in 2012. Brown-OH will survive due to Strong DEM GOTV. Brown-OH is going to be the next Russ Feingold.

[nkpatel1279]

Democrats are going to retain control of the US Senate in 2012.
Since the breakdown is going to be 53-47.  Republicans need to pick up 4 seats assuming Obama-D wins re-election.
Republicans are going to lose MA-Brown-R loses to a top tier DEM challenger. NV-look for Angle-R to challenge Ensign-R in the GOP primary. ME-Snowe-R gets teabagged.  -3R
Republicans need to win 7 Democratic held Seats in 2012.
They pick up NE,MO,MT if Rehberg-R runs. OH,VA,and WI-if OPEN are in the tossup collumn-Democratic GOTV is strong.

[nkpatel1279]

During the 1994 GOP Wave- One of the casualties in the US House was Maria Cantwell of WA. SHe lost re-election to her WA-1 US House Seat-which was a Democratic leaning Swing District by a high single digit margin. 6 years later in 2000- She ran for the US Senate and defeated long time Rep incumbent Mr. Slate Gorton. WA Republicans love the Flintstones.
Any chance soon to be ex PA US Rep Patrick Murphy follow Cantwell path- run for US Senate in 2016 against Pat Toomey.
Regarding backbencher freshman IL US Senator Mark Kirk. Dem challengers against Kirk will start Lisa Madigan- but she will pass in order to run for Governor in 2018, Then it will be IL-5 US Rep Mike Quigley, (Hoffman,Hynes,or Giannoulias) will be 2nd or 3rd choice candidates. I rate than Giannoulias states a 50-50 chance of winning a rematch.  The wild card is Michelle Obama-will she follow Hillary Clinton's lead. 
Look for Ron Kind to challenge Ron Johnson-WI.

[nkpatel1279]

Kirk won both races- the Special Election to fill the remainder of Obama/Burris terms and the next next 6 years until 2016.
Giannoulias should have followed Lisa Madigan and Beau Biden's lead and taken the safe route- ran for re-election as IL Treasurer- Giannoulias would have won re-election. Then Giannoulias could have ran for Governor in 2018, US Senate in 2014 or 2020-when Durbin steps down.  Dan Hynes should have been the IL Statewide Constitutional Officer to take the US Senate plunge-assuming Lisa Madigan took a pass.

[nkpatel1279]

Harry Reid-NV and Russ Feingold-WI faced tough re-election campaigns before in 1998 against cloass of 1994 GOP House Members John Ensign(NV) and Mark Neumann(WI)- Both narrowly won re-election. Had Reid-NV and Feingold-WI lost in 1998. Ensign(R-NV) would have been facing re-election this year and Reid would been up for re-election in 2012.
Neumann-WI would be facing re-election this year.

[nkpatel1279]

During the 1994 and 2010 GOP wave- 2 Democratic Incumbent US Senators lost re-election.
Red State DEM incumbents Jim Sasser-TN1994 and Blanche Lincoln-AR2010- lost by a landslide margins. Purple State DEM incumbents Harris Wofford-PA1994 and Russ Feingold-WI2010- lost by a narrow margin.  
1994- Republicans won open DEM seats in AZ,OK,and TN were Red or Red trending states. OH-Top Tier GOP vs generic DEM. MI- Generic DEM vs Generic REP- 1994 wave. and ME-Top Tier GOP vs generic DEM. had Snowe been Palinized in 1994- Tom Andrews would have been US Senator of ME.
2010- Republicans won open DEM seats in ND,IN-OPEN Seats in red states-Top Tier GOP vs generic DEM. PA-Swing state Generic DEM vs Generic REP-national wave- IL-narrow loss due to sacandals- A non controversial DEM nominee would have kept IL in the DEM collumn.  Democrats kept WV-due to Manchin candidacy and DE-due to Teabbaggers.

[nkpatel1279]

NH is the only State that has 2 female US Senators from different parties.