I have consistently said that Trump is the clear favourite to win basically since last october, I think, and as time has passed by I have been more and more certain of this. The more time passes, the less likely it becomes that something will significantly shift the state of the race and the state of the race is that Trump only has a slight lead nationally, but has a clear and stable lead in the swing states, much like Obama did in 2012.
This 100%.
Maybe Europeans are more able to look at the race from a neutral POV as they're less emotionally invested in it, because when talking about the race, i feel like people have more of a need to defend their own candidate why they could still win etc.
And to be fair, six months is long, but i think Trump is favoured and always was since well at some point last year.
Oh, just to be clear, I am VERY emotionally invested in this election, I just generally don't do hopium. I look at the facts at hand and draw the rational conclusion. The rational conclusion is that there is still 6 months to the election, but Trump is very much favoured at this point and there needs be to a real shift in sentiment for that to change and it is hard to see exactly where that shift is gonna come from (I see no evidence that the trials matter). I also think it is very silly to resort to the usual "polls 6 months out has no predictive value" because while that is true on the surface, this is absolutely NOT a normal presidential election. This is basically two pseudo-incumbents with 100% name recognition running against each other. There aren't really any unknowns or skeletons in the closet that can change things much. People KNOW that Trump is a narcissistic crook and the people who are voting for him either DO NOT CARE (your William Barr types) or are part of the brainwashed cult of personality. Biden BARELY squeeked out a victory last time around with an unusually broad coalition of people who were motivated to get Trump out of office. This time around Biden is not "likable generic D", but a deeply unpopular incumbent. You have to be on something strong to believe that the coalition that came out for Biden in 2020 is just gonna come out for him again this time around.
