This race is a tossup.

[BlueSwan]

Well, I don't just think Trump is slightly more likely to win, I think he is the overwhelming (~90%) favourite for the following reasons:

- His polling lead in the swing states is solid and stable just like Obamas in 2012.

- Polls in the KEY swing states - which are WI/PA/MI - are far more likely to underestimate Trump than overestimate Trump. The polling errors in 2016 and 2020 were largest in the midwestern states which suggest a systemic problem with polling Trumps support in these types of states, that I very much doubt has been solved (probably because it simply can't be solved if these voters just won't talk to pollsters).

- ALL the key issues outside of abortion favours Trump. I believe those issues are immigration/border security, inflation and "wokeness" in general. People underestimate how much the "wokeness" nonsense motivates people who otherwise don't care about or understand politics. Anything that even smells slightly of "trans", no matter how nonsensical it is (like the bathroom "issue") is a losing issue for democrats.

- Abortion is the BIG winning issue for democrats, but Trump has largely diffused this by taking a moderate position. Infact democrats even risk overplaying their cards by arguing hard against a pretty reasonable 15 week ban (and I say this as someone who is totally pro choice).

- Biden squeeked by a victory in 2020 by securing record turnout from an extremely broad coalition of voters who preferred a "generic D" like Biden over Trump. Biden is now deeply unpopular and Trump has been out of office for 4 years, so Biden is unlikely to get the same turnout and getting rid of Trump won't be as big a motivator either.

- Biden has a massive problem with securing the leftist vote and the youth vote. Unfortunately some people just want to see the world burn.

- People are hoping that the court cases will make a difference but I just don't see that happening. As Trump has said himself, he could shoot someone in the middle of 5th Avenue and it wouldn't matter.

As radical and risky as it sounds, and yes I know it sounds mad, I think Biden needs to drop out. I don't even care if Kamala is then the D candidate. I think even she has a better shot at turning this around than Biden does, even though I'd obviously prefer a stronger candidate.