UK local by-elections 2013

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Time for a new thread for this.  The Holy Word is out for tomorrow's first four by-elections of the new year:

Fenland, Hill (C defending)
Lambeth, Brixton Hill (Lab defending)
Wirral, Heswall (C defending)
Wirral, Leasowe and Moreton East (Lab defending)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Fenland, Hill

hahahahaha

I have been reliably informed that Hill ward was actually named after Octavia Hill, who was born in Wisbech.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Tonight's Holy Word is out, in two parts.

Dudley, Wollaston and Stourbridge Town (C defending)

Bridgend, Bryncoch (Lab defending)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

The Holy Word for tomorrow.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

This week I also tried introducing non-British people to the lyrics of Ian Dury, but Kris cut that bit out.  Clearly getting kn*b jokes in under the radar two weeks in a row was too much to hope for.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Oldham, Alexandra

Lab 70.7 (+24.3)
UKIP 18.8 (+18.8 )
Lib Dem 4.4 (-14.4)
Con 3.6 (-31.2)
Green 2.5 (+2.5)

Lol, I presume there's a story behind the Tories' performance though?

In 2012, the Labour candidate was called Dilys Fletcher and the Conservative was Raja Iqbal.

In 2013, the Labour candidate was called Zahid Chauhan and the Conservative was Neil Allsopp.

Yes, that just about sums it up.

It's probably a good thing I'm otherwise engaged and can't write previews at the moment, as the residents of Alexandra ward would probably take great exception to what I would write.  Hint: I don't like Oldham much.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Better late than never, this week's preview.  There is just one local by-election this week, on the Derbyshire/Nottinghamshire border.

WHITWELL, Bolsover district council, Derbyshire; caused by the resignation of Green Party councillor Duncan Kerr, who has moved to the west of England.

The large village of Whitwell can be found at the very north-eastern corner of Derbyshire, just off the A619 Worksop-Chesterfield road about four miles west of Worksop.  Possibly best known as the home of snooker player Joe Davis, who held the title of world champion continuously from 1927 until retiring undefeated in 1946, Whitwell once claimed to have the largest number of licensed premises per capita in the country, with eleven pubs for residents to choose from.  While much of Bolsover is a coal-mining (or ex-coal-mining) area, Whitwell's main export is limestone from a large quarry outside the village.  The village's railway station reopened in 1998 as part of the Robin Hood Line from Nottingham to Worksop, and has a generally hourly service (but no trains on Sundays).

While Bolsover district as a whole is generally a Labour fiefdom (fittingly for the area which returns Dennis Skinner to Parliament), Whitwell is very much an exception to the rule, with its election results normally dominated by the Whitwell Residents Association.  The Residents held the ward's two district council seats from at least 2003 until 2011, when one of them was taken by the Green Party candidate Duncan Kerr in a rather close result, with Labour and an Independent candidate only about 70 votes behind Kerr and the remaining Residents councillor.  Kerr didn't stand in the simultaneous parish council election (the ward and parish have the same boundaries), which saw Labour winning four seats, the Residents three and the remaining seat going to an independent.  The village went to the polls just three weeks ago in the Derbyshire county council election, but with no Whitwell Residents candidate for the county council the result (Labour winning easily in Bolsover North division, UKIP a distant second, TUSC beating the Conservatives for third) isn't all that relevant to this by-election.

Duncan Kerr effectively was the Green Party in Bolsover (he had been the council's only Green candidate in 2011) and so there is no defending Green candidate in the by-election which is a straight fight between the Residents and Labour.  The Residents' candidate, parish councillor Viv Mills, is trying to get back on the district council after losing her seat in the 2011 election (in which she finished last).  The Labour candidate Frank Raspin was the runner-up in the 2011 parish council election and is married to a Labour parish councillor.

Parliamentary constituency: Bolsover
Derbyshire county council division: Bolsover North
ONS Travel to Work Area: Worksop and Retford

Viv Mills (Whitwell Res Assoc)
Frank Raspin (Lab)

May 2011 result Grn 453 Whitwell Res Assoc 452/326 Lab 383/342 Ind 378
May 2007 result Whitwell Res Assoc 631/468 Ind 429 Lab 357/308
May 2003 result Whitwell Res Assoc 755/618 Lab 428/373

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

The slow pace of local by-elections continues, with just two contests this week, both in English cities.  Labour have a seat to defend in Newcastle upon Tyne, while the Tories need to fight off a Labour challenge to their safest ward in Nottingham.

WALKERGATE, Newcastle upon Tyne city council; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Tania Armstrong after just over a year in office, for family reasons.

Newcastle's most easterly ward, Walkergate straddles the various roads and the Metro line which connect the city to the suburb of Wallsend, running from the recently-closed Walkergate Hospital at the western end to the Tyne at the eastern end.  A relatively working-class ward according to the census figures, the deprivation indices paint a finer picture, with the area around Shields Road being much less deprived than the rest of the ward.

This ward is a Lib Dem-Labour fight as so much of the rest of Newcastle is.  The Lib Dems won all three seats in the ward when it was redrawn on its current boundaries in 2004, and increased their majorities in the next three elections.  However, Labour have taken over the ward's seats one by one since 2010; the Lib Dem vote held up relatively well in 2011 with the Labour majority being cut to just over 100 votes, but the yellow vote collapsed in 2012.  There is no Conservative vote to speak of here; the party were beaten into fourth place by the BNP at the 2008 election.

This form would suggest that Labour's Stephen Wood should have little trouble holding the seat.  Kevin Brown, who came third in Denton ward last year and comes from Gosforth, is the new Liberal Democrat candidate, while Marian McWilliams tries again for the Conservatives after standing here in 2012 and 2011.  Six other candidates have been nominated on what will be a crowded ballot paper: in alphabetical order they are Martin Collins for the Greens, Bobbie Cranney for the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, independent Davy Hicks, Olga Shorton for the localist Newcastle upon Tyne Community First Party (standing under the description "It's Time to Put Newcastle First"), independent Reg Sibley and UKIP's Lorraine Smith.

Parliamentary constituency: Newcastle upon Tyne East
ONS Travel to Work Area: Newcastle and Durham

Kevin Brown (LD) (@kevinjbrown7)
Martin Collins (Grn)
Bobbie Cranney (TUSC)
Davy Hicks (Ind)
Marian McWilliams (C)
Olga Shorton (NuTCFP)
Reg Sibley (Ind)
Lorraine Smith (UKIP)
Stephen Wood (Lab)

May 2012 result Lab 1912 LD 646 C 149 Comm 102
May 2011 result Lab 1682 LD 1580 C 119
May 2010 result Lab 2009 LD 1706 C 346 BNP 303
May 2008 result LD 1596 Lab 908 BNP 278 C 195
May 2007 result LD 1752 Lab 1005 C 153
May 2006 result LD 1770 Lab 1116 C 155
June 2004 result LD 1973/1885/1630 Lab 1298/1204/1160 C 203/192/171


WOLLATON WEST, Nottingham city council; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Steve Parton at the age of 64.  In his first term as a Nottingham councillor, Parton suffered a stroke while campaigning in the recent Wollaton East and Lenton Abbey by-election.

The ward of Wollaton West covers the whole of Wollaton Park together with housing to the north and west, including the old village of Wollaton which was swallowed up by Nottingham many years ago.  This is one of the most desirable places to live in Nottingham, with competition for places at the local schools being fierce.  One rather unexpected local resident is Batman: Wollaton Hall, former home of the Willoughby family in the middle of Wollaton Park, was used as the exterior of Wayne Manor in the most recent Batman film, The Dark Knight Rises.  (Inside the hall is the Nottingham Natural History Museum.)

While the local residents may not be as rich as Bruce Wayne, given the ward's demographics it's no surprise to find that this is a safe Conservative ward.  In fact, it's Nottingham's only safe Conservative ward, and somewhat of a bastion; even a doubling of the Labour vote in the 2011 election couldn't seriously threaten the blue team.

Batman and the other local residents have six candidates to choose from.  The Tories have gone for youth in defending this ward, having selected 22-year-old James Spencer who works for a media relations company in the Creative Quarter of the city centre.  He fought Wollaton East and Lenton Abbey in the 2011 election.  His main opposition will come from Labour's Steve Battlemuch, a parent governor at the local Fernwood School who is described as heavily involved in the local community.  The Liberal Democrats have a very experienced campaigner in the shape of businesswoman and former lecturer Barbara Pearce, who has stood for Parliament three times, including as the SLD candidate in the 1989 Richmond by-election which sent William Hague to Parliament for the first time, following up on that by fighting Leeds North West in the two 1990s elections.  Nottingham Business School lecturer Chris Clarke stands for UKIP, while the Green Party candidate, psychotherapist Katharina Boettge, comes here straight from fighting the Bilborough ward by-election in April; she is top of the Greens' East Midlands list for next year's Euro-elections.  In this rogues' gallery it's a matter for debate which candidate represents which Batman character, but there is one definite joker: the final candidate is regular frivolous by-election candidate David "Militant Elvis" Bishop, who will be hoping to attract more votes than the 115 he received here in the 2007 election by highlighting his opposition to High Speed 2 on the ballot paper.

Parliamentary constituency: Nottingham South
ONS Travel to Work Area: Nottingham

Steve Battlemuch (Lab) (@battlemuch4ww)
David Bishop (Elvis)
Katharina Boettge (Grn)
Chris Clarke (UKIP)
Barbara Pearce (LD)
James Spencer (C)

May 2011 result C 2870/2646/2593 Lab 2018/1938/1753 LD 770/601/506
Aug 2008 by-election C 2769 Lab 1042 LD 424 UKIP 220
May 2007 result C 2670/2408/2305 Lab 1169/1097/1013 LD 805/744/667 Grn 498 UKIP 483 Church of the Militant Elvis 115
May 2003 result C 2630/2563/2433 Lab 1197/1118/1087 LD 688/678/676

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

On the menu this week: Southampton, West Yorkshire and West Norfolk.

http://blog.englishelections.org.uk/2013/06/by-elections-preview-13-june-2013.html

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Just two by-elections on 18th July 2013, both of which in settlements which have managed to remain obscure despite being the largest in their district by population.  Labour are defending a seat in Flintshire's largest town on the banks of the River Dee, while an Independent seat is up for grabs in the largest village of South Cambridgeshire district.


CONNAH'S QUAY GOLFTYN, Flintshire county council; caused by the death of Labour councillor Peter Macfarlane from liver cancer.  A former firefighter who served in the RAF, Cllr Macfarlane had first been elected to the now-abolished Alyn and Deeside district council and had served on Connah's Quay town council for 26 years.  He was Flintshire's cabinet member for regeneration, enterprise and leisure.


Perhaps surprisingly for those who may have never heard of it, Connah's Quay is Flintshire's largest town with a population of around 17,500.  The town is on the south bank of the River Dee, but its boundaries extend all the way to the English border in what was once the centre of the Dee estuary before the river was channeled and much of what had been the estuary silted up.

The gradual silting of the Dee has created an awful lot of reclaimed land.  On the English side of the boundary, the land just outside the Chester city walls where the Romans once moored their ships is now Chester Racecourse.  Further up on the Wirral is Parkgate, which is a long way from the shoreline now but still has a seafront which used to look out on the main channel of the Dee.  The quay at Connah's Quay itself had fallen victim to silt by the 1960s, but don't despair: the north bank of the Dee within the town boundary is all flat, reclaimed land and has been put to good industrial use: there is still a large steelworks on the north bank together with a very large industrial estate (Deeside Industrial Park) and a pair of gas-fired power stations, one on each bank.  Connah's Quay Power Station can be found on the south bank of the Dee at the western end of the town, which is also the part covered by Connah's Quay Golftyn division.  Linking the
two banks within the division is the Flintshire Bridge, an impressive cable-stayed structure which is a bit of a "road to nowhere", linking as it does an industrial area with Flint and Connah's Quay, and lacking a good link on the south side of the Dee to the main A55 road.

All this heavy industry makes Connah's Quay predisposed to vote Labour.  The Golftyn division returned two Labour councillors unopposed in 2004.  At the 2008 election Labour were opposed only by independent candidate Eric Owen, who topped the poll but served only one term before Labour regained his seat at the 2012 election.

This by-election will be another faceoff between Labour and Owen.  Labour's defending candidate is Connah's Quay town councillor Andy Dundobbin.  Eric Owen, one of two independent members of the town council, wants his county council seat back, and has been accused of scaremongering by Labour after raising concerns that street lights in the area could be turned off to save money.  Also nominated is the first Conservative candidate here for at least a decade, David Chamberlain-Jones from Buckley.

Parliamentary and Assembly constituency: Alyn and Deeside
Assembly electoral region: North Wales
ONS Travel to Work Area: Chester and Flint

David Chamberlain-Jones (C)
Andy Dundobbin (Lab)
Eric Owen (Ind)

May 2012 result Lab 582/553 Ind 382
May 2008 result Ind 544 Lab 412/328
June 2004 result 2 Lab unopposed


SAWSTON, South Cambridgeshire district council; caused by the resignation of Independent councillor Sally Hatton.

With 7,145 inhabitants according to the 2011 census, Sawston is the largest settlement in South Cambridgeshire district but still only has the status of a village.  In fact, South Cambridgeshire doesn't have any towns at all, the town functions in the area being fulfilled by Cambridge which forms a borough of its own.  This hasn't stopped the area having some spectacular population growth since the Second World War, but that growth has been absorbed not by building a new town but by adding bits and bobs and housing estates to the villages that already existed.  As well as Cambridge and London commuting, Sawston does have a little industry of its own, notably a large paper mill north-west of the village, next to the Liverpool Street-Cambridge railway line and the River Cam.

This industry (tanning was also important here) created a base Labour vote that was able to win Sawston ward on occasion during their zenith years.  The Conservatives gained Sawston from Labour in 2000 to hold all three seats in the ward.  Sally Hatton was first elected in 2003 in a close three-way fight with the Tories and Labour.  South Cambridgeshire was re-warded in 2004; while Sawston ward was unchanged, all its three seats were up for election that year and they split three ways, with Sally Hatton topping the poll, the Tories coming in second and Labour winning a close fight for the final seat.  The Labour seat was promptly lost back to the Conservatives in 2006, but in the two attempts since then the Tories failed to dislodge Hatton, who was re-elected by 38 votes at the 2008 election (at which she was not opposed by Labour) and by 30 votes in 2012.  Hatton's resignation means that the Conservatives now have the chance to hold all three seats
here for the first time in ten years.  Sawston forms part of a two-seat county division with Great and Little Shelford to the north, which was comfortably held by the Conservatives in May's Cambridgeshire county elections.

There is no Independent candidate to step into Hatton's shoes so her seat is up for grabs.  The Conservatives have nominated the village cobbler and parish councillor Kevin Cuffley.  Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both picked candidates who stood in Sawston in the county elections in May: respectively Mike Nettleton (from Great Shelford) and Michael Kilpatrick (from Whittlesford).  The ballot paper is completed by UKIP candidate Elizabeth Smith, from Duxford.

I am grateful to Keith Edkins' website for the 1998 and 2000 results in the factfile.

Parliamentary constituency: South Cambridgeshire
Cambridgeshire county council division: Sawston
ONS Travel to Work Area: Cambridge

Kevin Cuffley (C)
Michael Kilpatrick (LD)
Mike Nettleton (Lab)
Elizabeth Smith (UKIP)

May 2012 result Ind 535 C 505 Lab 335 LD 66
May 2011 result C 1397 Lab 767
May 2010 result C 2167 Lab 1304
May 2008 result Ind 747 C 709
May 2007 result C 995 LD 256 Lab 224
May 2006 result C 862 Lab 690 Grn 278
June 2004 result Ind 913 C 900/588/530 Lab 613 LD 530
May 2003 result Ind 482 C 458 Lab 398
May 2002 result C 892 Lab 609
May 2000 result C 615 Lab 363 LD 222
May 1999 result C elected (votes not available)
May 1998 result C 640 Lab 571

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Further up on the Wirral is Parkgate

Further downstream, surely.

This is the Parkgate seafront:


If you can find a stream there, I'll let you have downstream.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Seven council by-elections will be held on Thursday 25th July 2013, all in London and the south of England.  We start in South London where Labour have a seat to defend in inner city Lambeth and the Lib Dems are affected by a scandal in Kingston upon Thames.  Further down the Waterloo line the Tories will try to hold off all comers in affluent Weybridge.  There are a pair of seats up for election in Essex, one defence each for Labour and the Conservatives, and we finish off with Conservative defences in Northamptonshire and Weston-super-Mare.

TULSE HILL, Lambeth borough council, South London; caused by the death of Labour councillor Ruth Ling at the age of 60.  A former freelance journalist who had lived for a time in Brazil, she had been a relatively long-serving councillor by Lambeth standards, first being elected to Lambeth council in 1994.

A few weeks ago this column previewed a by-election in Brixton Hill ward, whose eastern boundary is the A23 Brixton Hill road.  On the other side of the road is Tulse Hill ward, whose eastern boundary likewise is the A204 Tulse Hill road.  The ward runs frm the heart of Brixton at the northern tip towards Streatham and Tulse Hill proper at the southern end.  The population here is majority non-white with over 36% of the population identifying as black in the 2011 census.

Inner-city wards like this normally have strong Labour support, and such it is here.  There was a by-election here two years ago which saw a small swing from Labour to the Liberal Democrats, but that was during the Coalition's short-lived honeymoon period and Labour still polled over 52% of the vote.  At the 2012 GLA elections Ken beat Boris here 62-18; in the list section of that election the Green Party resumed their normal second place in the ward's ballot boxes with 17% to Labour's 60%.

These indicators wouldn't suggest much for the new Labour candidate Mary Atkins to worry about.  Amna Ahmad is standing for the Liberal Democrats, while regular Green candidate Bernard Atwell tries again.  All three candidates give addresses in the local SW2 (Brixton) postal district, and Atkins and Ahmad's publicity describes their employment in the sort of buzzword bingo that gives no clue what they actually do for a living.  This is less of a problem for the Conservative candidate, housing solicitor Tim Briggs who has served in Afghanistan with the Paras.  Another solicitor on the ballot is UKIP's Elizabeth Jones, crossing the road after standing in the Brixton Hill by-election in January.  Adam Buick (SPGB) and Steve Nally (TUSC) will dispute the ward's far-left vote, and independent candidate Valentine Walker is a retired businessman campaigning to save sheltered housing in Lambeth.

Parliamentary constituency: Streatham
GLA constituency: Lambeth and Southwark
ONS Travel to Work Area: London

Amna Ahmad (LD)
Mary Atkins (Lab)
Bernard Atwell (Grn)
Timothy Briggs (C)
Adam Buick (SPGB)
Elizabeth Jones (UKIP)
Steve Nally (TUSC)
Valentine Walker (Ind)

July 2010 by-election Lab 1235 LD 745 Grn 256 C 94 UKIP 36
May 2010 result Lab 3232/3186/3160 LD 1764/1748/1668 Grn 759/698/656 C 608/556/503
May 2006 result Lab 1589/1528/1514 Grn 718 LD 582/432/374 C 353/309/306
May 2002 result Lab 1219/1078/1017 Grn 440/333 LD 334/290/285 C 225/215/184 Socialist Alliance 171
May 2012 GLA elections (excludes postal voters)
Mayor: Ken 2156 Boris 628 Grn 340 Paddick 172 Benita 155 UKIP 22 BNP 13
List: Lab 2102 Grn 601 C 354 LD 217 UKIP 67 TUSC 64 CPA 37 BNP 17 EDP 15 House Party 12 Hayat 8 NF 3 Alagaratnam 1



BEVERLEY, Kingston upon Thames borough council, South London; caused by the resignation of the Leader of the Council, Liberal Democrat councillor Derek Osbourne, after he was arrested on suspicion of possessing indecent images of children.

Further out of London on the south-western main line can be found the suburb of New Malden, one of the London surburbs which owes its existence to the railway line and the commuting opportunities that entails.  The commuting profile has created a relatively well-off middle-class ward.  One surprising feature of New Malden is a very high Korean population, many of whom work in the City for Korean companies; the Korean diet is such that Tesco sell more fruit and vegetables per customer in New Malden than anywhere else.  Most of the resident Koreans, of course, won't be eligible to vote in this by-election.

New Malden's Beverley ward, named ultimately after the Beverley Brook, has been Liberal Democrat-held since 1986 and was a very safe Lib Dem ward in the Noughties, although the Conservatives got a swing in their favour at the most recent Kingston council election, held on general election day in 2010.  The ward most recently went to the polls in 2012 for the GLA elections: in the ward's ballot boxes Boris beat Ken 49-27 and the Liberal Democrats had one of their more decent scores in what was a disastrous election for them (the list votes were C 34 Lab 26 LD 16 Grn 11).  Kingston council is having a rash of by-elections (this is the sixth council by-election in the royal borough since 2010) but with no consistent trend emerging.

Defending for the Liberal Democrats is Lesley Heap, a swimming teacher and wife of one of the two remaining ward councillors.  The Conservative candidate is Terry Paton, a former policeman.  Volunteer theatre usher Marian Freeman is standing for Labour, Chris Walker for the Green Party and Michael Watson for UKIP.

Parliamentary constituency: Kingston and Surbiton
Greater London Assembly constituency: South West
ONS Travel to Work Area: London

Marian Freedman (Lab)
Lesley Heap (LD)
Terence Paton (C)
Chris Walker (Grn)
Michael Watson (UKIP)

May 2010 result LD 2138/2081/2044 C 1738/1591/1530 Lab 657/566/474 Grn 581 Christian Peoples Alliance 158/139/139
May 2006 result LD 1398/1391/1385 C 972/936/874 Grn 416 Lab 284/275/268 Christian Peoples Alliance 125/93/80
May 2002 result LD 1653/1632/1609 C 945/939/889 Lab 249/236/218 Christian Peoples Alliance 117
May 2012 GLA election (excludes postal voters)
Mayor: Boris 1162 Ken 644 Benita 209 Paddick 152 Grn 129 UKIP 53 BNP 22
List: C 783 Lab 601 LD 375 Grn 264 CPA 94 UKIP 88 BNP 41 EDP 27 TUSC 13 House Party 8 NF 6 Hayat 4 Alagaratnam 2



WEYBRIDGE SOUTH, Elmbridge borough council, Surrey; caused by the resignation of the Deputy Leader of the Council, Conservative councillor Simon Dodsworth, who is emigrating to Dubai.

For the week's third London-area by-election we travel yet further out along the south-western mainline to the suburb of Weybridge.  Another town which grew because of the railway, Weybridge (the point where the River Wey flows into the Thames) is even better off than New Malden; the Times reported in 2008 that the town had six of the ten most expensive streets in the South East region.  All three of Weybridge South's census areas are in the 20% least deprived in England.

Elmbridge council is known for the political strength of Residents Associations, but the Residents do not normally contest Weybridge South which hasn't seen an awful lot of change in its results over the last decade.  The Tories generally win very easily with the Liberal Democrats second, with the exception of the 2008 election which saw Kelvin MacKenzie (yes, *that* Kelvin MacKenzie) stand as an independent campaigning to reduce the cost of car parking.  While MacKenzie did finish second, he lost just as comprehensively as the Lib Dems normally do here and hasn't been seen on a ballot paper since.  May's county election in the wider Weybridge division (which includes St George's Hill) was more interesting: while the Tories held the division they polled just a third of the vote, with a Weybridge Independent candidate finishing as runner-up and outgoing county councillor Ian Lake standing as a UKIP candidate; Lake came fourth, polling 17%.

The Conservative candidate to defend Weybridge South is Richard Knight who, appropriately for such a rich town, owns a wealth management company.  Gillian Solway stands for the Liberal Democrats and defeated county councillor Ian Lake is back on the campaign trail for UKIP.  Labour apparently did select Martin Lister (their 2010 candidate here) to fight the by-election, but he hasn't been successfully nominated and won't appear on the ballot paper.

Surrey county council division: Weybridge
Parliamentary constituency: Runnymede and Weybridge
ONS Travel to Work Area: London

Richard Knight (C)
Ian Lake (UKIP)
Gillian Solway (LD)

May 2012 result C 638 LD 173 Lab 107
May 2010 result C 1434 LD 649 Lab 152
May 2008 result C 679 Ind 227 LD 192
May 2006 result C 786 LD 271
June 2004 result C 776 LD 365 Lab 77
May 2002 result C 700 LD 266 Lab 78

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Part II


BRAINTREE EAST, Braintree district council, Essex; caused by the death of Labour councillor Eric Lynch at the age of 69 from bowel cancer.  After a career in health technology, Lynch had first been elected to Braintree council in 2003, and regained his seat at a March 2012 by-election after being defeated in 2011.

Braintree appears to be one of the more determinedly obscure towns in southern England.  It can be found in the rural northern half of Essex, about eleven miles north of the county town, Chelmsford.  The town was originally Roman and is located at the junction of two Roman roads, but it became prosperous in mediaeval times by weaving wool, turning to silk during the Industrial Revolution; the main silk mill here was run by Samuel Courtauld, whose descendants founded the Courtauld Institute of Art in London.  Probably the main reason for outsiders to visit is the designer outlet village of Braintree Freeport.  The town and Freeport both have hourly trains to Liverpool Street (change at Witham on Sundays).

Braintree is in a rural area but this doesn't necessarily translate to strong Tory votes.  The area has had Labour MPs in the past, most famously Tom Driberg in the 1940s and 1950s, when this area was part of the Maldon constituency; more recently Braintree elected a Labour MP in 1997 and (narrowly) in 2001.

Indeed Braintree town is one of the more politically marginal areas.  Braintree East ward (which contains some very deprived parts as well as the Freeport) was fairly safe Labour in 2003, but the Conservatives gained one of the Labour seats in 2007 and held on to it in a June 2008 by-election.  The 2011 election again produced a 2Lab/1C split in what was effectively a photo-finish between the top candidates, and the March 2012 by-election saw a Labour gain from the Conservatives with a good swing in Labour's favour.  The ward is split between two county divisions: in May's elections the Conservatives held Braintree Eastern comfortably but held Braintree Town by just 31 votes over the Labour candidate.

The defending Labour candidate Celia Burne moves here from Braintree Central ward which she had fought in the 2011 election.  The Conservatives are standing a former ward councillor, Jennifer Smith who was the winner of the 2008 by-election but stood down in 2011 shortly after a hairdressing business she owned was prosecuted by her own council.  Computer science graduate Philip Palij, from Coggeshall, tries again after finishing third in the 2012 by-election and being runner-up in Braintree Eastern two months ago.  Another veteran of May's election, John Malam, completes the ballot paper as the Green Party candidate.

Parliamentary constituency: Braintree
Essex County Council divisions: Braintree Town (western part), Braintree Eastern (eastern part)
ONS Travel to Work area: Chelmsford and Braintree

Celia Burne (Lab)
John Malam (Grn)
Philip Palij (UKIP)
Jennifer Smith (C)

March 2012 by-election Lab 554 C 388 UKIP 131 Grn 76 Ind 32
May 2011 result Lab 762/756/710 C 759/691/668 Grn 297
June 2008 by-election C 668 Lab 406 Grn 125 LD 119
May 2007 result Lab 581/541/516 C 546/507/483 UKIP 266 LD 247/244
May 2003 result Lab 597/531/502 C 304 Ind 254/228 LD 219/216



FELSTED, Uttlesford district council, Essex; caused by the disqualification of Conservative councillor David Crome who failed to attend any meetings of the council in six months.

A few miles west of Braintree can be found the village of Felsted, on the north bank of the Chelmer.  While Felsted has a long history, it's probably best known for its public school, which was founded in 1564 by the 1st Lord Rich, Lord Chancellor, on the back of the profits he had made from the Dissolution of the Monasteries.  The Wikipedia list of Old Felstedians is ridiculously long; for our purposes highlights include the former head of state Richard Cromwell and two members of the current House of Commons, Conservative MPs Andrew Tyrie (Chichester) and Charlie Elphicke (Dover).  The Felsted ward also includes the village of Little Dunmow and the tiny parish of Flitch Green, a new housing development on the site of an old sugar beet factory which declared independence from Little Dunmow parish in 2009.  The word "flitch" recalls a strange ancient tradition in Little Dunmow: awarding a flitch of bacon to couples who have been married for a year and a day without regret.  One of the main exports from the ward is English wine: Felsted Vineyard describes itself as the oldest commercial vineyard in East Anglia.

While the Liberal Democrats held both council seats after the 2003 election, this ward has trended strongly towards the Conservatives since then; the Tories defeated the Lib Dems 79-21 at the 2011 election which, like the previous two, was a straight fight.

Defending this by-election for the Conservatives is Marie Felton, a full-time mother from Felsted who has worked in property and in the pharmaceutical industry.  Antionette Wattebot, a retired teacher, is the Liberal Democrat candidate.  The duopoly on candidates here has been broken: UKIP have nominated Alan Stannard, from just outside the ward in Willows Green, a retired City stockbroker who has also run his own taxi business.  The ballot paper is completed by the Labour candidate Yad Zanganah, a dental surgeon.

Parliamentary constituency: Saffron Walden
Essex county council division: Thaxted
ONS Travel to Work Area: Harlow and Bishop's Stortford

Marie Felton (C)
Alan Stannard (UKIP)
Antionette Wattebot (LD)
Yad Zanganah (Lab)

May 2011 result C 1204/1113 LD 320/314
May 2007 result C 924/740 LD 585/554
May 2003 result LD 539/531 C 336/298



THRAPSTON MARKET, East Northamptonshire district council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Michael Finch.

A small town in rural Northamptonshire of about 5,800 souls, Thrapston can be found on the River Nene at the junction of the A14 Kettering-Huntingdon road with the A45/A605 Northampton-Peterborough road.  The town is fairly nondescript and the main feature is the offices of East Northamptonshire district council.  The Thrapston Market ward combines the southern half of the town with the parishes of Denford and Ringstead to the south.

East Northamptonshire is a strongly Conservative local government district and the Conservatives were unopposed here in 2007 when the ward was created.  In 2011, however, while still topping the poll the Tories lost one of the seats in this ward to an independent candidate.  The ward is divided between two county council divisions; in May the Tories held Thrapston county division fairly comfortably although on a low share of the vote, UKIP being second, while the rural parishes form part of Irthlingborough county division where the Tories beat off Labour rather more narrowly.  However, it's probably fair to say that Denford and Ringstead are not the best parts of that division for Labour.

Defending for the Conservatives is Alex Smith.  Thrapston town councillor Val Carter is standing as an Independent.  Joseph Garner stands for UKIP hot from the campaign trail after finishing runner-up to the Conservatives in Thrapston county division in May, and teacher Alex Izycky is the Labour candidate.

Parliamentary constituency: Corby
Northamptonshire county council division: Thrapston (Thrapston parish), Irthlingborough (Denford and Ringstead parishes)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Kettering and Corby

Valerie Carter (Ind)
Joseph Garner (UKIP)
Alex Izycky (Lab)
Alex Smith (C)

May 2011 result C 754/586 Ind 604
May 2007 result 2 C unopposed

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Part III.  This preview is not my work, it's by Andrew Nisbet, who would no doubt be rather sorry if he went to all that trouble and found his work wasn't published.

WESTON-SUPER-MARE NORTH WORLE, North Somerset council; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor.

Weston-super-Mare North Worle is almost entirely made up of new suburbs built in the 1980s and 90s on farmland on the edge of Weston. Situated close to the M5 motorway, this area has lots of young families and commuters. Most of the ward is fairly affluent, with only a few areas of social housing and retirement bungalows. The motte and bailey Castle Batch is a prominent feature in the centre of the ward. Many of the roads are named after people or places of historical interest. At the east end of the ward the roads are named after Somerset county cricketers.
 
Upon its creation in 1999 the ward was won by the Liberal Democrats, who increased their majority in 2003. The top scoring candidate both times was Alan Hockridge, who had a large personal following, and who became leader of the council in 2005, first in coalition with the Conservatives, then with Labour.
Alan Hockridge died suddenly during the 2007 elections which were then deferred. The unpopularity of the outgoing Lib Dem/Labour administration, combined with the loss of Hockridge's personal vote, meant the Lib Dems lost the ward on a huge swing to the Conservatives. The result in 2011 was very similar apart from an increased Labour vote.
 
The Conservative candidate is Richard Nightingale who runs his family's removals and estate agents business. He proposed a plan to develop the town's derelict Tropicana swimming pool, which was turned down by the Conservative administration who decided to demolish it instead. He is now in the ironic position of standing for them.
 
The Liberal Democrat candidate is communications expert Edward Keating who was formerly a councillor for the neighbouring South Worle ward. He has campaigned to get the Tropicana developed as a swimming pool.
 
An Independent candidate is farmer and developer Derek Mead whose company built many of the new houses in the area. He has also been behind a scheme to redevelop the Tropicana. He was previously not allowed to stand as a Conservative for being in his words "too disruptive".
 
The Labour candidate is Denise Hunt who works in local government.
 
The UKIP candidate is local GP Steven Pearse-Danker. He was to have been UKIP's parliamentary candidate in 2010 but was ineligible to stand due to being a Danish citizen.
 
Another Independent is Rachel Ling, who was the Lib Dem candidate in another by-election just 3 months ago.
 
There is also a by-election for Weston-super-Mare Town Council for the Worle East ward, which covers roughly the eastern half of the district ward.

Parliamentary constituency: Weston-super-Mare
ONS Travel to Work Area: Bristol

Denise Hunt (Lab)
Edward Keating (LD)
Rachel Ling (Ind)
Derek Mead (Ind)
Richard Nightingale (C)
Steven Pearse-Danker (UKIP)

May 2011 result C 1293/1183/1101 LD 686/671/609 Lab 600/596/559
June 2007 postponed poll C 946/920/904 LD 513/498/494 Lab 268/234/218 Ind 157 UKIP 154
May 2003 result LD 1356/1236/1143 C 627/610 Lab 268/248/243

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

More of an explanation now than a preview, and the results have exposed some shocking lack of research, but here goes.

There are six by-elections on 1st August 2013.  Top of the bill is a by-election to the Welsh Assembly for the Isle of Anglesey Ynys Môn constituency, being defended by Plaid Cymru who also have a council-level by-election to defend at the other end of the country in Caerphilly.  In England, UKIP have two recently-gained county council seats to defend in Kidderminster and Thetford, the Tories will try to keep a marginal district council seat in Clitheroe and Labour will seek a successor for a district council seat in Derbyshire.

YNYS MÔN, National Assembly for Wales; caused by the resignation of Plaid Cymru AM Ieuan Wyn Jones to head the new Menai Science Park.  The MP for Anglesey from 1987 to 2001, Jones had served on the Welsh Assembly since its inception in 1999.  He was leader of Plaid Cymru from 2000 to 2012, and served as Deputy First Minister of Wales from 2007 to 2011 as Plaid went into coalition with Labour in the Assembly.

This seat is easy to define: it is Isle of Anglesey and associated islands, of which the most important is Holy Island.  Relatively low-lying compared to much of north Wales, Anglesey's economy is based on agriculture (the island may have the world's northernmost olive grove) and tourism, although there is a fair amount of industry, notably the Wylfa nuclear power station near Amlwch on the north coast; Amlwch itself is an industrial town built to serve major nineteenth-century copper mines on Parys Mountain.  The town of Holyhead on Holy Island is one of the UK's most important ferry ports with more than two million passengers every year using the ferries to and from Dublin and Dun Laoghaire, but the aluminium smelter which formerly underpinned the town's economy (and was the UK's single biggest user of electricity) closed down in 2009.  Back on the main island is RAF Valley, home of a fast jet training school and search and rescue helicopters and
presently employing the Duke of Cambridge, although he is on paternity leave at the moment following the birth of Prince George last week.

While Holyhead and Valley are essentially a self-contained economic unit, much of the eastern half of the island, including the tourist centre of Beaumaris, is within the orbit of the city of Bangor on the mainland, to which Anglesey is connected by two bridges: Thomas Telford's Menai Suspension Bridge, built to carry the London-Holyhead road and the world's first modern suspension bridge, and Robert Stephenson's Britannia Bridge, rebuilt in 1970 following a fire to carry both rail and road traffic to the island.

At the centre of the island is Llangefni, home to the much-maligned county council which became so consumed by infighting and corruption that the Welsh Government suspended its powers in 2011 and appointed commissioners to run the island from Cardiff.  Following new elections in 2013 the councillors are back in control, the majority Independent group running the council in coalition with Labour.

Anglesey is one of the longest-surviving constituencies with unchanged boundaries, the island having formed one constituency since 1885 when the Beaumaris District of Boroughs (one of the more notorious pocket boroughs, controlled by the Viscounts Bulkeley and the Williams-Bulkeley baronets) was abolished.  The first MP for the united island was Richard Davies of the Liberals, a radical nonconformist from a timber-importing family who had sat for the county constituency since 1864 and had recently been appointed Lord-Lieutenant of Anglesey.  Davies retired in 1886, citing opposition to Irish Home Rule, and was replaced by Thomas Lewis, who handed over in 1895 to Sir Ellis Ellis-Griffith, 1st baronet, a barrister who served in Asquith's administration.  (I recently discovered an article by Sir Ellis in the 1925 Daily Mail
Yearbook in which he bemoaned the sparse attendance in the House and the busy workload of modern MPs; an
article which could probably be printed today with very few changes!)  Sir Ellis was defeated in the 1918 election by Sir Owen Thomas who became the island's first Labour MP.  Sir Owen died in 1923 and Labour lost the by-election back to the Liberal candidate Sir Robert Thomas, a ship and insurance broker who had previously been MP for Wrexham from 1918 and lost to Sir Owen in the 1922 general election.  Sir Robert handed over in 1929 to Wales' first female MP, Lady Megan Lloyd George.  Despite (or perhaps because of) Lady Megan's opposition to the National Government she had little trouble being re-elected until after the Second World War, the 1945 election being the first of three hard-fought contests with the Labour candidate, Holyhead town clerk Cledwyn Hughes, who finally emerged victorious in the 1951 election.

Cledwyn Hughes had a long and rather successful political career, peaking in the second Wilson administration in which he served in the Cabinet as Welsh Secretary and Agriculture Minister; later, as Lord Cledwyn of Penrhos, he was leader of the opposition in the House of Lords.  At his first re-election in 1955 both the Conservatives and the Liberals nominated candidates called Hughes to stand against him, which must have been confusing; later, in 1964, all three opposition candidates were called Jones.

Since 1951 Anglesey has settled into an interesting pattern with its election results: no MP who seeks re-election on the island is ever defeated, but no retiring MP has passed the seat on to a candidate of the same party.  So on Cledwyn Hughes' retirement in 1979 Labour (who stood the former Cardiganshire MP Elystan Morgan), lost the seat to Brighton councillor and TA major Keith Best who became the island's first (and so far only) Conservative MP since 1725.  Best proved to be a scandal-prone figure: he was involved in a road accident which killed his PA and, although he was cleared of responsibility for that, he was later fined (and served a few days in prison) after being found guilty of fraud over the BT share allocation.  If anything, Best was more influential after leaving Parliament in 1987, being named by the Guardian in 2003 as one of the hundred most influential people in UK public services: at the time he was chief exec of the Immigration
Advisory Service and chairman of the council of the Electoral Reform Society.

Best was replaced by Ieuan Wyn Jones, the island's first (and so far only) Plaid Cymru MP.  Jones served as the MP until 2001 when he stood down from Wesminster to concentrate on the Assembly; true to form Plaid failed to keep the seat, and since 2001 the MP for the island has been Labour's Albert Owen, a former merchant seaman and CAB advisor who had been runner-up to Jones in the first Assembly election in 1999.

At Senedd level Jones has won all four elections on the island, the closest result coming in 2003 when he was less than nine points ahead of the Conservatives' Peter Rogers, list Assembly member for North Wales in the first Assembly.  Rogers, who had been demoted to an unwinnable position on the list at that election in favour of the fuel tax protestor Brynle Williams, quickly broke with the Conservatives and stood for the island as an independent in the next three Westminster and Senedd elections, finishing runner-up again in the 2007 election at which Jones increased his majority.  Without Rogers on the ballot the Conservatives narrowly took second place from Labour at the 2011 Assembly election.

This is the first by-election to the Assembly since Blaenau Gwent in 2006, and there is a lot at stake: since the 2011 elections Labour have held exactly half of the 60 seats, and a Labour gain in this by-election would give them an absolute majority in the Assembly for the first time.

Defending the seat for Plaid Cymru is the former BBC/S4C newsreader Rhun ap Iorwerth, from the Anglesey hamlet of Llangristiolus.  The Conservative candidate is Rev Neil Fairlamb, the Rector of Beaumaris.  Labour's candidate is Tal Michael from Rhos-on-Sea, ex-Islington councillor, son of the former First Minister of Wales Alun Michael and Labour's candidate in the North Wales Police and Crime Commissioner election last year.  That went well.  The Lib Dems have also selected a candidate from the mainland, Gwynedd (and former Barking and Dagenham) councillor Steve Churchman, re-elected unopposed in the 2012 election by Dolbenmaen division.  Also standing are Nathan Gill, a businessman from Llangefni, for UKIP, and Kathrine Jones, from Bethesda on the mainland, for the Socialist Labour Party.

Rhun ap Iorwerth (PC)
Stephen Churchman (LD)
Neil Fairlamb (C)
Nathan Gill (UKIP)
Kathrine Jones (Soc Lab)
Tal Michael (Lab)

May 2011 result PC 9969 C 7032 Lab 6307 LD 759
May 2007 result PC 10653 Ind 6261 Lab 4681 C 3480 LD 912 UKIP 833
May 2003 result PC 9452 C 7197 Lab 6024 LD 2089 UKIP 481
May 1999 result PC 16469 Lab 7181 C 6031 LD 1630

Westminster results
May 2010 result Lab 11490 PC 9029 C 7744 LD 2592 Ind 2225 UKIP 1201 Chr 163
May 2005 result Lab 12278 PC 11036 Ind 5216 C 3915 LD 2418 UKIP 367 Legalise Cannabis Alliance 232
June 2001 result Lab 11906 PC 11106 C 7653 LD 2772 UKIP 359 Ind 222
May 1997 result PC 15756 Lab 13275 C 8569 LD 1537 Referendum Party 793
Apr 1992 result PC 15984 C 14878 Lab 10126 LD 1891 Natural Law Party 182
June 1987 result PC 18580 C 14282 Lab 7252 SDP/All 2863
June 1983 result C 15017 PC 13333 Lab 6791 SDP/All 4947
May 1979 result C 15100 Lab 12283 PC 7863 Lib 3500
Oct 1974 result Lab 13947 C 7975 PC 6410 Lib 5182
Feb 1974 result Lab 14652 C 8898 PC 7610 Lib 3882
June 1970 result Lab 13966 C 9220 PC 7140 Lib 2013
March 1966 result Lab 14874 C 9576 PC 2596
Oct 1964 result Lab 13553 C 7016 Lib 5730 PC 1817
Oct 1959 result Lab 13249 C 7005 PC 4121 Lib 3796
May 1955 result Lab 13986 Lib 9413 C 3333 PC 2183
Oct 1951 result Lab 11814 Lib 11219 C 6366
Feb 1950 result Lib 13688 Lab 11759 C 3919
July 1945 result Lib 12610 Lab 11529
Nov 1935 result Lib 11227 C 7045 Lab 6959
Oct 1931 result Lib 14839 C 10612
May 1929 result Lib 13181 Lab 7563 U 5917
Oct 1924 result Lib 13407 Lab 7580
Dec 1923 result Lib unopposed
Apr 1923 by-election Lib 11116 Lab 6368 U 3385
Nov 1922 result Lab 11929 Nat Lib 10067
Dec 1918 result Lab 9038 Coalition Lib 8898
Dec 1910 result Lib unopposed
Jan 1910 result Lib 5888 C 2436
1906 result Lib 5356 C 2638
1900 result Lib unopposed
1895 result Lib 4224 C 3197
1892 result Lib 4420 C 2702
1886 result Lib 3727 C 3420
1885 result Lib 4412 C 3462

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

PENYRHEOL, Caerphilly county borough council; caused by the death of Plaid Cymru councillor Anne Collins at the age of 72.  Retired after a long career in the health service, Collins was first elected to Penyrheol community council in 1985 and had been a Caerphilly councillor since 1999, serving as Mayor of Caerphilly in 2008/9.

Ynys Môn isn't the only seat that Plaid have to worry about this week.  One of Wales' rare four-member council divisions, the Penyrheol division covers a series of residential areas in the lower Aber Valley; Pen-yr-heol itself climbing up the eastern hillside of the valley, Trecenydd and Energyln on the other hillside, and the tiny hamlet of Groes-wen.  The division has the same boundaries as the Penyrheol, Trecenydd and Energlyn community council.

This division has been a consistent stronghold for Plaid Cymru for some years, thanks partly to the popularity of local councillor Lindsay Whittle, twice Plaid leader of Caerphilly council and since 2011 a member of the Welsh Assembly for South Wales East.  Whittle consistently beats the alphabet to come of the poll here.  In the 2004 and 2008 elections his Plaid slate won all four seats in the division rather comfortably, but Labour gained one of the seats in 2012 to split the division's representation.

The defending Plaid candidate is Steve Skivens, a retired firefighter from Energlyn who was the defeated Plaid candidate in 2010.  His main opponent will be Labour's Gareth Pratt, a teacher.  Tory candidate Cameron Muir-Jones, from Energlyn, will be looking for a better result than the 24 votes he polled in last year's New Tredegar by-election.  The ballot paper is completed by Jaime Davies for the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition.

Parliamentary and Assembly constituency: Caerphilly
Assembly electoral region: South Wales East
ONS Travel to Work Area: Cardiff

Jaime Davies (TUSC)
Cameron Muir-Jones (C)
Gareth Pratt (Lab)
Steve Skivens (PC)

May 2012 result PC 1361/1196/1110/992 Lab 1074/917/871/851 Ind 398 TUSC 174
May 2008 result PC 1924/1687/1672/1491 Lab 1021/993/913 Ind 628
June 2004 result PC 1753/1549/1472/1384 Lab 1055/1048/1024/840 Ind 479


THETFORD WEST, Norfolk county council; caused by the resignation of newly-elected UK Independence Party councillor Peter Georgiou after it was revealed that he is banned from entering a local supermarket due to shoplifting.

Thetford West, as you might guess, covers the west of the town of Thetford together with a large part of Thetford Forest to the west of the town.  A large market town on the Cambridge-Norwich road and the Ely-Norwich railway line, Thetford was the capital of the Kings of East Anglia during the Heptarchy and the seat of a bishopric, which moved to Norwich during the early twelfth century.  More modern characters commemorated with statues in the town are Thomas Paine, whose statue depicts him holding a copy of his Rights of Man, held upside down; and Capt George Mainwaring of the Warmington-on-Sea home guard.  Many of the outside scenes in the BBC comedy series Dad's Army were filmed in and around Thetford.

County elections in the town have also been funny affairs.  Thetford West division was solidly Labour in 2005, the party polling 48% and the Conservative/Lib Dem opposition being evenly divided.  In 2009 the order of the three parties completely reversed with the Lib Dems finishing on top with 37%, 52 votes ahead of the Conservatives who were themselves only 176 votes ahead of Labour.  But the 2013 result was even stranger: the defending Liberal Democrats crashed to fifth place and the Conservatives were well out of it, the campaign turning into a battle between Labour and UKIP, UKIP coming out on top by just one vote and winning with 35% of the vote.

You really can't get any more marginal than that, and with UKIP having lost a by-election last month in which another of their councillors resigned due to a scandal the omens are not good for them.  Their new candidate is John Newton, who is retired after running a local engineering business for 25 years.  Labour have re-selected Terry Jermy, district and town councillor for Thetford-Saxon ward and still only 27 years old, to try and find the two extra votes he needs to win.  Tristan Ashby, an ex-firefighter and Attleborough town councillor, tries again for the Tories after his third place in May.  The Greens are the third party to reselect their candidate from May, Sandra Walmsley in their case, while the Lib Dem candidate from May Danny Jeffrey is also standing again, but this time as an Independent.

Parliamentary constituency: South West Norfolk
Breckland district council wards: Thetford-Abbey, Thetford-Saxon
ONS Travel to Work Area: Thetford and Mildenhall

Tristan Ashby (C) (tristanashby.info)
Danny Jeffrey (Ind)
Terry Jermy (Lab) (jermysjournal.blogspot.com @CllrTerryJermy)
John Newton (UKIP)
Sandra Walmsley (Grn)

May 2013 result UKIP 814 Lab 813 C 353 CPA 134 LD 122 Grn 64
June 2009 result LD 934 C 882 Lab 706
May 2005 result Lab 2101 C 1268 LD 1027


ST MARY'S, Worcestershire county council; caused by the death of newly-elected UK Independence Party councillor Tony Baker at the age of 69.

For the second UKIP defence this week we travel to a very urban division: St Mary's division covers the western side of the Worcestershire town of Kidderminster.  Fifteen miles north of Worcester, Kidderminster has an interesting mix of industries, with bespoke carpets, solid-fuel rocket motors and luxury yachts all manufactured in the town; the red carpet used at the wedding of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge came from Kidderminster.

Kidderminster is of course associated with the Health Concern movement, opposed to the closure of the casualty department at Kidderminster Hospital, which ran the Wyre Forest district council for several years.  St Mary's, however, is not one of Health Concern's better areas.  In May 2005 the division voted Labour in a close three-way split, Labour being 73 votes ahead of the Conservatives who were themselves only 130 votes ahead of the Lib Dems.  Labour won with just 28% of the vote.  The 2009 election saw a comfortable Conservative gain with the Lib Dems winning a close race for second place ahead of Health Concern and UKIP.  In 2013 UKIP went from fourth to first in another close three-way split, UKIP winning with just 27% of the vote, 50 votes ahead of the Conservatives who were 38 votes ahead of Labour.

Since the May elections UKIP have already lost one of their Worcestershire county council seats in the Stourport-on-Severn by-election after their councillor was revealed to have anti-Semitic and other very dubious stuff on his Facebook; while no-one is at fault for this by-election the party will still have to perform well to hold the seat.  Their new candidate is Peter Willoughby.  The Tories' Nathan Desmond, who was county councillor for the division from 2009 until May, wants his seat back.  Another former county councillor standing is Mumshad Ahmed, who gained the town's St Georges and St Oswald division from the continuing Liberal Party in 2009; however, that was as a Conservative and now Ahmed is standing for Labour, as he did in this division in May.  Health Concern have also renominated their May candidate, Graham Ballinger, and independent candidate Helen Dyke completes the ballot paper.

Parliamentary constituency: Wyre Forest
Wyre Forest district council wards: Habberley and Blakebrook (part); Sutton Park (part)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Kidderminster

Mumshad Ahmed (Lab)
Graham Ballinger (Health Concern)
Nathan Desmond (C)
Helen Dyke (Ind)
Peter Willoughby (UKIP)

May 2013 result UKIP 595 C 545 Lab 507 Health Concern 336 Lib 140 Grn 46
June 2009 result C 817 LD 536 Health Concern 477 UKIP 431 Lab 270
May 2005 result Lab 1279 C 1206 LD 1076 Health Concern 732 Lib 235

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

CODNOR AND WAINGROVES, Amber Valley district council, Derbyshire; caused by the death of Labour councillor George Parkes at the age of 68.  A manager at a Derby metal company, he had first been elected to Amber Valley council in 2010 and served for six years as chairman of Codnor parish council.

"There is in the North a single-line system of tramcars which boldly leaves the county town and plunges off into the black, industrial countryside, up hill and down dale, through the long, ugly villages of workmen's houses, over canals and railways, past churches perched high and nobly over the smoke and shadows, through dark, grimy, cold little market-places, tilting away in a rush past cinemas and shops down to the hollow where the collieries are, then up again, past a little rural church under the ash-trees, on in a bolt to the terminus, the last little ugly place of industry, the cold little town that shivers on the edge of the wild, gloomy country beyond. There the blue and creamy coloured tramcar seems to pause and purr with curious satisfaction. But in a few minutes—the clock on the turret of the Co-operative Wholesale Society's shops gives the time—away it starts once more on the adventure. Again there are the reckless swoops downhill,
bouncing the loops; again the chilly wait in the hill-top market-place: again the breathless slithering round the precipitous drop under the church: again the patient halts at the loops, waiting for the outcoming car: so on and on, for two long hours, till at last the city looms beyond, the fat gasworks, the narrow factories draw near, we are in the sordid streets of the great town, once more we sidle to a standstill at our terminus, abashed by the great crimson and cream-coloured city cars, but still jerky, jaunty, somewhat daredevil, pert as a blue-tit out of a black colliery garden."
- DH Lawrence, 'Tickets, Please!'

Lawrence here was talking about the tram service from Nottingham to Ripley, known as the "Ripley Rattler", which passed through his home town of Eastwood and on to the next stop, the mining village of Codnor on the Nottingham-Matlock road and the last stop before Ripley.  The tram service, and the trolleybus that replaced it in the early 1930s, might have been useful if it had survived, for Codnor has not been bypassed and now suffers severe traffic problems.  In countryside at the edge of the village is the ruined Codnor Castle, a thirteenth-century construction of William Peverel (of the Peak), while the more recent mining legacy - opencast mining still goes on in the area - is commemorated by the Codnor Wheel, one of the late Cllr Parkes' achievements.  The Codnor and Waingroves ward combines Codnor with Waingroves, a suburb of Ripley, and the Cross Hill area on the road to Heanor.

The ward has consistently voted Labour over the last decade, but hasn't always been safe; the Labour majority over the Conservatives was cut to just one vote in 2008 and the Tories were only 22 votes behind at the 2010 election.  As in many industrial areas, the formation of the Coalition led to a large rise in the Labour vote and the 2012 result shows that this ward is now very safe for Labour.

Defending for Labour is Isobel Harry who was Mayor of Ripley in 2004/5.  Another former Mayor of Ripley standing is the Conservatives' Ron Ashton, who lost his district council seat in Ripley and Marehay ward last year.  The UKIP candidate is Garry Smith from Waingroves, and the ballot is completed by the Lib Dems' Keith Falconbridge who gives an address in the Bulwell area of Nottingham.

Parliamentary constituency: Amber Valley
Derbyshire county council division: Heanor Central (Cross Hill); Ripley East and Codnor (rest of ward)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Derby

Ron Ashton (C)
Keith Falconbridge (LD)
Isobel Harry (Lab)
Garry Smith (UKIP)

May 2012 result Lab 825 C 339 UKIP 198 BNP 59
May 2010 result Lab 1159 C 1127 BNP 391
May 2008 result Lab 573 C 572 BNP 228
May 2006 result Lab 676 C 424 LD 183
June 2004 result Lab 1029 C 728
May 2002 result Lab 871 C 430


LITTLEMOOR, Ribble Valley district council, Lancashire; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Christine Conner for personal reasons.  Conner was first elected by Littlemoor ward in 2011 having previously been a councillor for Read and Simonstone ward.

The Littlemoor ward is south-eastern Clitheroe, a mostly residential area at the bottom of Pendle Hill, next to the road which climbs up to the Nick o' Pendle before descending into the treacle-mining stronghold of Sabden.

Clitheroe is generally a strong Lib Dem area, but the party is on the wane here; while the yellows still topped the poll in the 2011 election they lost one of the two seats in this ward to the Tories' Christine Bartrop (as she then was).  Recent by-elections in Clitheroe, and the gain of the town's county council seat from the Lib Dems in May, are further encouraging signs for the local Conservatives.

The by-election is likely to be a close fight between Jean Forshaw for the Conservatives, a first-time candidate, and Clitheroe town councillor Jim Shervey who was the defeated Lib Dem candidate in 2011.  Also standing are Liz Webbe for Labour and independent candidate Steve Rush.

Parliamentary constituency: Ribble Valley
Lancashire county council division: Clitheroe
ONS Travel to Work Area: Blackburn

Jean Forshaw (C)
Steve Rush (Ind)
James Shervey (LD)
Liz Webbe (Lab)

May 2011 result LD 361/305 C 343/321 Lab 226/193
May 2007 result LD 552/496 C 318/311 Ind 111
May 2003 result LD 755/700 C 326 BNP 292

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Skelton-in-Cleveland; Merton; Swindon; Lowestoft.  This week's Holy Word at
http://blog.englishelections.org.uk/2013/08/by-election-preview-8-august-2013.html

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Long trip down memory lane here:

http://blog.englishelections.org.uk/2013/08/by-election-preview-15-august-2013.html

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

August is, of course, holiday season, and what better way to take advantage of the good weather than to go to what the LNER always used to call "the Drier Side of Britain"?  We have four by-elections on the menu this week on the eastern side of the Pennines, starting with a marginal ward in the historic city of Lincoln, moving north into Yorkshire to visit a Victorian spa town overshadowed by the effects of a later industry; and finishing up, fittingly for the time of year, on the beach at Scarborough.  If you're feeling a little bit under the weather, there is plenty of opportunity to take the waters this week.


BRACEBRIDGE, Lincoln city council; caused by the disqualification of former Conservative councillor Darren Grice for failing to attend any meetings of the council in six months.  Grice, who had been leader of the council until the Conservatives lost control in 2011, had been sitting as an independent; I'm not sure why, but there had been an expenses-based scandal in the city council which may have been something to do with it.

Lincoln has a rather strange topography, being divided into "uphill" and "downhill" halves.  The cathedral, castle and public buildings are "uphill", while the city centre lies in the "downhill" part - a low-lying area next to the River Witham.  One way in which this divide is enforced is through local television, with northern "uphill" Lincoln being part of the Yorkshire TV region and southern "downhill" Lincoln covered by the Central TV region.

Bracebridge ward is the most southerly within the Lincoln city limits and therefore "downhill", although it does not mark the end of the built-up area which continues into the independent town of North Hykeham.  The ward is a rather strange one consisting of two completely independent residential areas on either side of the River Witham, along the Brant Road and the Hykeham Road.  It's a generally well-off area and becomes more well-off the further away from the centre you get.

Lincoln is Labour's bastion within the county of Lincolnshire, and as recently as 2003 Labour won a clean sweep of the city's eleven wards.  However, that year and 2012 are the only times in the last decade that Labour won Bracebridge ward which generally votes Conservative.  Boundary changes in 2007 lopped off part of the ward's grottiest census area, so you would assume that would strengthen the Conservative position in the ward.  The 2012 Labour gain was by just seven votes.  In May's county election this was only the Lincoln county division the Tories held, the Lincoln Bracebridge county division (which hasn't yet been updated to match the new ward boundaries) having a Conservative majority of 38 over Labour with UKIP in third place polling 24%.  (Hartsholme, traditionally the strongest Tory area in the city, went UKIP on a freak three-way split with just six votes separating the UKIP, Conservative and Labour candidates.)

The Tories want their old seat back, and they have nominated David Denman, a senior ecologist.  Geography teacher Katie Vause will try to make the Labour gain.  UKIP's candidate is Elaine Warde, who is retired after a career working at a Young Offenders Institute and being a drug and alcohol counsellor.  The Lib Dem candidate is optical assistant Ross Pepper, and the ballot paper is completed by the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition's Karen Williams, a mental health worker.

Parliamentary constituency: Lincoln
Lincolnshire county council division: Lincoln Bracebridge
ONS Travel to Work Area: Lincoln

David Denman (C)
Ross Pepper (LD)
Katie Vause (Lab)
Elaine Ward (UKIP)
Karen Williams (TUSC)

May 2012 result Lab 719 C 712 UKIP 183 LD 82 BNP 49
May 2011 result C 1134 Lab 932 UKIP 234
May 2010 result C 1632 Lab 1143 LD 775 BNP 206 UKIP 148
May 2008 result C 1126 Lab 517 BNP 230
May 2007 result C 1189/1185/1075 Lab 530/501/458 LD 325 BNP 306 UKIP 204


ASKERN SPA, Doncaster metropolitan borough council, South Yorkshire; caused by Labour councillor Ros Jones being elected as Mayor of Doncaster.

Spa towns in Yorkshire?  Yes, there's a few of them.  Harrogate is almost certainly the most famous, but one of the less well-known is Askern, a small town off the A19 Doncaster-Selby road about seven miles north of Doncaster.  The mineral waters here were first noted in the eighteenth century, and by the end of the nineteenth century there were at least five bathhouses in Askern.  The ward named after the Spa is a generally agricultural area to the north of Doncaster, with Askern and Skellow (a large village off the Great North Road) the main centres of population among tiny villages such as Burghwallis, Norton and Owston which contain a few Doncaster commuters.

You might have thought, given its semi-rural profile, this would be a strong Tory ward.  You'd be wrong: while the Conservatives came close to winning at several points during the later Blair and Brown years, this is now a very safe Labour ward and part of Ed Miliband's constituency.  Don't look at the map, look at what lies under it: coal, and lots of it.  Askern isn't just a spa town; it's a pit town as well, and a pit town of relatively recent vintage.  Askern Colliery opened in 1910 (scaring away the spa's custom, which was dealt the final blow by the Great War) and didn't close until 1993.  The effects of this (even given the dysfunctional nature of Doncaster council) give a high Labour base vote which drowns out the more rural element.  At the most recent election in 2012 Labour polled over 70% in a straight fight with the Conservatives, and in May this one of the ward councillors defeated the incumbent English Democrat Mayor, Peter Davies,
in Doncaster's fourth mayoral election.

The electors of Askern Spa have rather more choice on offer at this by-election than they had in 2012, with seven candidates successfully nominated.  The defending Labour candidate is Iris Beech, from Askern.  The Conservatives have re-selected their 2012 candidate Martin Greenhalgh, from Sprotbrough.  In alphabetical order, the remaining candidates are David Allen for the English Democrats; independent Martyn Bev from Askern; UKIP candidate Frank Calladine (a poster on the Vote UK forum, although he seems to think there is a ten-word limit on his postings), a former Tory Doncaster candidate who gives an address in Adwick-upon-Dearne; TUSC candidate Mary Jackson and the Lib Dems' Adrian McLeay.

Parliamentary constituency: Doncaster North
ONS Travel to Work Area: Doncaster

David Allen (EDP)
Iris Beech (Lab)
Martyn Bev (Ind)
Frank Calladine (UKIP)
Martin Greenhalgh (C)
Mary Jackson (TUSC)
Adrian McLeay (LD)

May 2012 result Lab 2269 C 954
May 2011 result Lab 2205 C 831 EDP 574 Ind 416
May 2010 result Lab 2756 C 1502 EDP 1415
May 2008 result Lab 1165 C 1099 Ind 603 Ind 450 Grn 309
May 2007 result Lab 1491 C 1153 Grn 708
May 2006 result Lab 1527 C 1160 Grn 349 Community Group 289
June 2004 result Lab 1488/1356/1323 Community Group 1217 C 1191/1170 Grn 836

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

NEWBY and RAMSHILL, Scarborough district council, North Yorkshire; caused respectively by the resignations of Independent councillor Mick Cooper and Conservative councillor Nick Brown.

Another town where a nascent spa industry has been completely overtaken, Scarborough started off as a tourist attraction in the 17th century not for its beach, but for the natural spring water bubbling out of the south cliff.  Drinking the waters became accepted as a medicine, and Regency and Victorian terraces sprang up on the top of the cliff, turning Scarborough into one of Britain's first seaside resort.  The coming of the railway from York ensured the resort's success, as did the Victorian Grand Hotel, which when it was built was one of the largest hotels in the world.  While the spa water is no longer fit for human consumption, its contribution to the town's economy continues with the Spa Centre, a large threatre and conference centre built around the original spring.

The Regency and Victorian terraces on the clifftop above the Spa now form the Ramshill ward of Scarborough, and could often be seen as a backdrop to the ITV drama series The Royal (a Heartbeat spinoff broadcast during the Noughties).  Away from the coast, Newby is a suburb of Scarborough on the Whitby road which has become part of the town's urban area although it is still part of a separate civil parish (Newby and Scalby).

The Newby district ward has the same boundaries as the North Yorkshire county council division of the same name, but despite this has very different voting patterns.  Since 2005 the county division has returned Conservative councillor Andrew Backhouse, the present Mayor of Scarborough, with steadily increasing majorities over Labour, but at district level Independent candidates usually top the poll.  Since 2007 the ward's three district seats have split two to Independents and one to the Conservatives.

The smaller Ramshill ward has only two district councillors, one of which has consistently been Conservative since 2003, although the only time in this millennium that the party has topped the poll in the ward is a 2005 by-election.  The other seat was won by Labour in 2003, the Lib Dems in 2007 (Labour not standing) and by an Independent in 2011.  At county level it is combined with Weaponness ward to the south (which covers the Olivers Mount area), in May Weaponness and Ramshill was won by the Conservatives with UKIP just taking second place from an independent.

The defending Independent candidate in the Newby by-election is Bonnie Purchon, who lost her district conucil seat in North Bay ward at the 2011 election.  She is a hotel proprietor from Staxton, on the road to York and was awarded an MBE in the 2001 New Year Honours for services to the hospitality industry in Yorkshire.  The Conservative candidate Sue Backhouse is county councillor Andrew Backhouse's wife and therefore the current Mayoress of Scarborough; she fought the ward in 2011.  Labour's candidate is Carl Maw who stood here in the May county elections, as did the Greens' Helen Kindness, a teacher.  Last on the ballot paper is UKIP's Andy Smith.

In Ramshill the defending candidate is the Tories' Peter Southward, who is a parish councillor in Osgodby, the next village down the coast.  Steve Siddons is the Labour candidate.  Lana Rogers, the Lib Dem councillor for this ward from 2007 to 2011, will try to get her seat back.  Mark Vesey is back on the campaign trail after his fifth place in the county division in May, while UKIP's Michael James will hope to go one better than his runner-up spot in May.

Newby
Parliamentary constituency: Scarborough and Whitby
North Yorkshire county council division: Newby
ONS Travel to Work Area: Scarborough

Sue Backhouse (C)
Helen Kindness (Grn)
Carl Maw (Lab)
Bonnie Purchon (Ind)
Andy Smith (UKIP)

May 2013 county council result C 605 Lab 370 Ind 355 LD 108 Grn 93
May 2011 result Ind 842/841/676 C 720/696/638 Lab 516 Grn 328 LD 288
June 2009 county council result C 685 Lab 406 LD 392 Ind 370 Grn 160
May 2007 result Ind 995/813/362 C 723/639 Lab 466 Grn 339
May 2005 county council result C 1143 Lab 940 LD 739 Ind 575 Grn 143
May 2003 result Ind 945/767/668 LD 615 C 455/406

Ramshill
Parliamentary constituency: Scarborough and Whitby
North Yorkshire county council division: Weaponness and Ramshill
ONS Travel to Work Area: Scarborough

Michael James (UKIP)
Lana Rodgers (LD)
Steve Siddons (Lab)
Peter Southward (C)
Mark Vesey (Grn)

May 2011 result Ind 368 C 350/323 Lab 301 LD 260 Grn 232
May 2007 result LD 322 C 294/275 Ind 285/134 Grn 242 North Yorks Coast Party 138
May 2006 by-election C 258 Ind 244 Lab 174 LD 71
May 2003 result Lab 408 C 378/320

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

With ten by-elections to cover this week, your columnist must apologise for not having sufficient time to cover all of these polls in the level of detail to which readers have become accustomed.  There is a very wide spread this week, with two polls in the West Country, two in East Anglia, four in the East Midlands, one in a Home Counties ward stuffed full of old money, and one in Carlisle.  There is a strong disability theme this week, and two amputees feature in this week's column.

WADEBRIDGE EAST, Cornwall council; caused by the resignation of controversial Independent councillor Colin Brewer, for reasons which will be outlined below.

This urban/rural division covers the eastern half of the town of Wadebridge together with the parish of Egloshayle and part of St Kew parish (the villages of St Kew, St Kew Highway and Chapel Amble) to the north and east of Wadebridge.

Wadebridge East was won at the first unitary Cornwall council election in 2009 by Colin Brewer, long-serving independent district councillor for Wadebridge ward on the former North Cornwall district council and also long-serving county councillor for Wadebridge and St Minver division on the old Cornwall county council.  Judging by the election results in Wadebridge from the Noughties, he had a significant personal vote, and was elected in 2009 fairly comfortably with 44% of the vote, to 33% for the Conservatives and 23% for another independent.

Unfortunately Brewer heaped ignominy on himself in March 2013 for reasons which went viral on the internet after the comedian Adam Hills ranted about it on the Channel 4 disability rights and comedy programme The Last Leg (this video is not safe for work due to swearing):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOcAIGFma5Q

Yes, he was the councillor who said that disabled children should be put down, and it prompted his resignation from Cornwall council.  With the scheduled May 2013 elections imminent no by-election was held to replace him, but there was enough time in between for Brewer to decide that, actually, he'd rather stand for election again and let the electorate decide.  The electors of Wadebridge East gave him just 25% of the vote, but that was enough to win on a freak vote split with all six candidates for the division polling between 11% and 25%.  Brewer beat the Lib Dem candidate by just four votes.

Having been restored to the council by his electors, Brewer promptly dug himself straight back into exactly the same hole by agreeing to do an interview with the Disability News Network.  It didn't end well, and Brewer found himself under investigation by the council's monitoring officer for further insensitive remarks in the same vein.  After being censured by the monitoring officer, who pretty much said he would have disqualified Brewer had he had the power to do so, Brewer resigned from Cornwall council for the second time in less than six months.

This time there will be a by-election to replace Brewer.  The new independent candidate is Tony Rush, the Mayor of Wadebridge.  Rush's predecessor as Mayor Steve Knightley, the Lib Dem candidate beaten by Brewer in May, tries his luck again, as do the UKIP candidate Rod Harrison, a former milkman and Methodist preacher, and Labour's Adrian Jones, a Wadebridge town councillor and chair of the local Chamber of Commerce, who was awarded an MBE for his work in New York City after 11th September 2001.  Completing the ballot paper is the Conservative candidate, Egloshayle resident Stephen Rushworth, a Cornwall cabinet member until losing his seat in Padstow in May.

Parliamentary constituency: North Cornwall
ONS Travel to Work Area: Wadebridge

May 2013 result Ind 335 LD 331 UKIP 208 Lab 161 C 150 Ind 146

Rod Harrison (UKIP)
Adrian Jones (Lab)
Steve Knightley (LD)
Tony Rush (Ind)
Stephen Rushworth (C)


BARDWELL, St Edmundsbury district council, Suffolk; caused by the death of Conservative councillor John Hale at the age of 68.   A retired financial services advisor specialising in pensions, Hale was first elected to the district council in 2003.

This is a big rural ward in the Blackbourn valley just south of Thetford, covering the parishes of Barnham on the Thetford-Bury St Edmunds road; Euston, Fakenham Magna and Honington on the Thetford-Stowmarket road; and Bardwell and Coney Weston to the east.

Bardwell ward elects one member of St Edmundsbury district council, and since 2003 that member has been the Conservatives' John Hale.  His three election results have all been very similar to each other, polling around 75% of the vote against only UKIP opposition.

The Tories have selected Paula Wade to defend the seat; she is from Bardwell.  Also from Bardwell is the UKIP candidate James Lumley, who is hoping it will be third time lucky after contesting the ward in 2003 and 2011.  This time there is a three-cornered contest with Labour having nominated Thomas Stebbing, an architect from Bury St Edmunds.

Parliamentary constituency: West Suffolk
Suffolk county council division: Blackbourn
ONS Travel to Work Area: Bury St Edmunds (Bardwell and Coney Weston parishes); Thetford and Mildenhall (rest of ward)

James Lumley (UKIP)
Thomas Stebbing (Lab)
Paula Wade (C)

May 2011 result C 737 UKIP 223
May 2007 result C 540 UKIP 179
May 2003 result C 485 UKIP 180

ELY EAST, East Cambridgeshire district council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Will Burton, the 2012/13 Mayor of Ely, who is relocating to Lincolnshire.

Self-explanatory ward name alert: this is the eastern quarter of the cathedral city of Ely, in the Fens.  This ward covers the city centre, the cathedral, the marina on the River Great Ouse and the city's railway station, a major junction where lines from Cambridge, Ipswich, Peterborough, Norwich and King's Lynn all meet.  Also included in the ward are the fen villages of Queen Adelaide (with its three adjacent level crossings) and Prickwillow, which lie within the city boundary.

Ely East split its two district council seats between the Conservatives and Lib Dems in 2003.  The Tories gained the Lib Dem seat in 2007 and held the two seats in 2011, but this remains a marginal ward at district council level.

The new Conservative candidate is Lis Every, a business teacher at Ely College.  The Lib Dems and Labour have both selected the less popular of their two candidates in the 2011 election, Dian Warman and Jane Frances respectively.  Independent candidate John Borland, who fought this ward all the way back in 2003, also stands, as does UKIP's Jeremy Tyrrell.

May 2011 result C 613/598 LD 541/522 Lab 306/258
May 2007 result C 582/527 LD 468/453 Ind 218/153
May 2003 result C 468/350 LD 452/414 Ind 166 Grn 116

John Borland (Ind)
Lis Every (C)
Jane Frances (Lab)
Jeremy Tyrrell (UKIP)
Dian Warman (LD)

FENSIDE, Boston borough council, Lincolnshire; caused by the disqualification of English Democrats Party councillor Elliott Fountain who did not attend any meetings of the council in six months.

This is effectively the north-western corner of the town of Boston, a triangular area of housing on the south bank of the River Witham.

Local politics in Boston has gone a bit weird, with lots of support for minor parties.  The fun began in 2007 when a group completely new to local politics surprisingly gained control of the council - the Boston Bypass Independents, who as the name suggests are calling for a bypass to built to solve the severe traffic problems experienced by Boston (which are exacerbated by the fact that all the bridges over the Witham are in the town centre).  The Boston Bypass Independents turned out to be as inept in running the council as might have been expected from a group of inexperienced first-time councillors, and were resoundingly defeated in the 2011 council elections at which the Conservatives took overall control.  In this May's elections to Lincolnshire county council UKIP had one of their best results in Boston, winning four of the district's six county council seats including the Boston North West division which includes Fenside ward.

Fenside ward has not been immune to the overall strangeness; safely Labour in 2003, it was gained by the Bypass Independents in 2007.  The Bypass Independents then went on to lose one of the ward's two seats to the BNP in a November 2008 by-election, before both seats in the ward were gained by the English Democrats, a minor federalist party.  Apart from the 2009 Doncaster mayoral election, this is the English Democrats' only success at principal authority level.  Fountain's disqualification has resulted in the number of English Democrat district councillors reducing from two to one.

There is no defending English Democrat candidate so the seat is up for grabs.  Taking the candidates in alphabetical order: Ben Cook, the Labour candidate, is 27, works at the local ASDA and is a GMB union officer; the Conservative candidate is independent financial advisor Dan Elkington; the UKIP candidate is Tiggs Keywood-Wainwright, who convincingly won the local county council division in May; and the Lib Dems have nominated Revd Alan Taylor.

Parliamentary constituency: Boston and Skegness
Lincolnshire county council division: Boston North West
ONS Travel to Work Area: Boston

May 2011 result EDP 231/195 Boston Bypass Ind 182/176 Lab 162/159 LD 68/51
Nov 2008 by-election BNP 279 Boston Bypass Ind 141 C 119 Lab 69 UKIP 24 LD 23
May 2007 result Boston Bypass Ind 317/315 Lab 174/116 C 134 UKIP 107
May 2003 result Lab 292/250 C 160

Ben Cook (Lab)
Dan Elkington (C)
Tiggs Keywood-Wainwright (UKIP)
Alan Taylor (LD)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

HAMBLEDEN VALLEY, Wycombe district council, Buckinghamshire; caused by the death of the Chairman of the Council, Conservative councillor Roger Emmett, at the age of 67.  Emmett had been a Wycombe district councillor since 2001.

Here we have some very rich and beautiful Chiltern countryside, with a particular specialisation in country houses.  Hambleden Valley is a large ward which covers most of the area south-west of High Wycombe down to the north bank of the Thames.  It consists of Hambleden, Fawley, Turville and Ibstone parishes together with most of Medmenham parish.

Medmenham is notorious for its association with Francis Dashwood's so-called "Hellfire Club" in the eighteenth century, many of whose activities took place in the ruins of Medmenham Abbey, but should probably be better known for RAF Medmenham, home of the Air Force's photographic reconaissance unit during the Second World War.  Inevitably, the RAF building - Danesfield House - is now a country house hotel.  Another country house in the ward is Fawley Court, a former school for Polish boys overlooking the Henley Regatta course, which has been a favourite subject of Private Eye magazine over the last few years thanks to its recent sale and resulting legal disputes.

At the north end of the ward, Turville is a favourite location for film and TV productions; among many other things, it has been invaded by German paratroopers (in the Ealing comedy Went the Day Well?) and endured Dawn French as its vicar (in The Vicar of Dibley) while Cobstone Windmill in Ibstone, overlooking Turville, was restored for the filming of Chitty Chitty Bang Bang.  Finally, Hambleden itself has associations with the aristocracy; Lord Cardigan, of Charge of the Light Brigade fame, was born here, and the Viscounts Hambleden (the original owning family of the WH Smith chain) are the lords of the manor.

In his twelve years on Wycombe district council Roger Emmett only faced two contested elections: his first, a November 2001 by-election in which he polled a whisker under 50% against independent and Labour opposition, and his last re-election in 2011, in which he beat a single Lib Dem candidate by 80% to 20%.  (Ask yourself: what did you expect a ward as full of old money as this to vote like?)  The county council results don't hold much hope of an exciting election either, the Tories winning the local county division (Chiltern Villages) in May with a margin of 34 points over UKIP.

The new Conservative candidate is Roger Metcalfe, a former Royal Artillery officer from Fawley who runs a business consultancy firm.  Labour's nominee is Julian Grigg, from High Wycombe, the second amputee (after Adam Hills) to feature in this week's column, while UKIP are standing Brian Mapletoft, from Penn on the other side of High Wycombe.

Parliamentary constituency: Wycombe
Buckinghamshire county council division: Chiltern Villages
ONS Travel to Work Area: Wycombe and Slough

Julian Grigg (Lab)
Brian Mapletoft (UKIP)
Roger Metcalfe (C)

May 2011 result C 820 LD 204
May 2007 result C unopposed
May 2003 result C unopposed


LOUGHBOROUGH ASHBY, Charnwood borough council, Leicestershire; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Chris Carter.

This tract of Loughborough can be found either side of the main road going out of town west towards the M1 motorway, and includes a large part of the Loughborough University campus.

Luffbra has some strange local election results and Labour often overperform here.  This ward of the town was won by Labour unopposed in 2003, but in 2007 the party lost one of their two seats to a single Conservative candidate.  Labour restored their monopoly in the 2011 election, polling 62% in a straight fight with the Conservatives.  This bodes well for a Labour hold in the by-election, but Loughborough is a student town and this ward has part of the campus in it; although students are notorious for not voting in local elections anyway, Loughborough's new academic year hasn't started yet, and a by-election in the town's Southfields ward last September which also fell during the summer recess resulted in a surprise Conservative gain.  On the other hand, last May's county council polls saw the Tories finish third in Loughborough North West behind Labour and an Independent.

So there is the potential for something strange to happen.  The defending Labour candidate will obviously not be hoping for a repeat performance, as it's the same candidate who lost last year's Southfields by-election: Mary Draycott, a former Lord Mayor of Leicester with many years' service on Leicester City Council, now living in Shepshed.  Syston-based teacher Kirti Asmal is the Conservative candidate, and UKIP have selected Andy McWilliam, from Quorn.

Parliamentary constituency: Loughborough
Leicestershire county council division: Loughborough North West
ONS Travel to Work Area: Leicester

May 2011 result Lab 834/817 C 506/404
May 2007 result C 546 Lab 517/472 BNP 220
May 2003 result 2 Lab unopposed

Kirti Asmal (C)
Mary Draycott (Lab)
Andy McWilliam (UKIP)


MIDDLETON CHENEY, Northamptonshire county council; and RAVENSTHORPE, Daventry district council, Northamptonshire; both caused by the death of Conservative councillor Ken Melling.  The Chairman of Daventry council in 2003/4, Melling had served as a district councillor since 1998 (for Brampton ward, moving to Ravensthorpe in 2012 when the council was re-warded) and as a county councillor since 2005, and also sat on Harlestone parish council.

These are very different areas.  To take the district ward first, Ravensthorpe ward covers a series of villages off the Northampton-Rugby road: Ravensthorpe itself, Hollowell, Holdenby, East Haddon, Brington and Althorp, home of the Earls Spencer and final resting place of Diana, Princess of Wales.  Middleton Cheney, on the other hand, is the far south-west corner of Northamptonshire, occupying the space between Banbury and Brackley.

Ravensthorpe ward looks safe enough for the Tories, who polled 62% last year (the first election on its current boundaries) with the English Democrats beating the Lib Dems for second place.  The Tories have selected company director Bryn Aldridge who, like all the other candidates, gives an address in the Long Buckby area.  The Lib Dem candidate Neil Farmer is a company director and local Lib Dem agent, UKIP's Ruaraidh "Eric" MacAnndrais is a Daventry town councillor who runs a taxi firm, while qualified special needs teacher Sue Myers stands for Labour.

On paper, Middleton Cheney should be more interesting with UKIP coming a strong second in the division in May.  The defending Conservative candidate is Ron Sawbridge, who is retired after careers as an RAF navigator and as a director of a large logistics company; he sat on Northamptonshire county council from 2001 until May when he lost Brackley to UKIP.  Living in Aynho, Northamptonshire's most south-westerly village, this is his home division.  UKIP's candidate Barry Mahoney fought the 2010 general election for this constituency (South Northamptonshire) and will be on UKIP's East Midlands list for next year's European Parliament elections; in May he fought his home division of Towcester and Roade.  Labour's candidate is Daventry district councillor Christopher Lee, a freelance director and drama tutor, and the Lib Dems have nominated former Northampton borough councillor Scott Collins, who lives in Helmdon and runs a printing/social media company.

Middleton Cheney
Parliamentary constituency: South Northamptonshire
ONS Travel to Work Area: Banbury

Scott Collins (LD)
Christopher Lee (Lab)
Barry Mahoney (UKIP)
Ron Sawbridge (C)

May 2013 result C 1165 UKIP 963 Lab 357 LD 239

Ravensthorpe
Parliamentary constituency: Daventry
Northamptonshire county council division: Long Buckby
ONS Travel to Work Area: Northampton and Wellingborough

Bryn Aldridge (C)
Neil Farmer (LD)
Eric MacAnndrais (UKIP)
Sue Myers (Lab)

May 2012 result C 420 EDP 136 LD 124


TORRINGTON, Torridge district council; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Geoff Lee who is moving to Norfolk.

This ward has the same boundaries as the town of Great Torrington, the main town in the Torridge Valley but still a small market town.  Much of its economy is based on the town centre shops, many of which are still independently owned, tourism (the town was one of the main settings for Henry Williamson's book Tarka the Otter) and glass-making; Dartington Crystal's factory in Torrington is the last remaining crystal factory in the UK and the town's largest employer.

Torrington's district council results are rather idiosyncratic with much support for independents, notably Cllr Margaret Brown who has a large personal vote.  The ward elected two Independent councillors and  a Lib Dem in the 2003 election; the Conservatives gained one of the Independent seats in 2007 to split the ward's representation three ways, and the three ward councillors were re-elected in 2011.  The Conservative ward councillor Andy Boyd is also the county councillor for the wider Torrington Rural division, winning a second term in May with UKIP as runners-up.

So, with previous election results serving more to confuse than inform, who are the candidates?  There is no official Lib Dem candidate, so the seat is up for grabs, but, as in the nearby Shebbear and Langtree by-election two weeks back there is an unofficial Lib Dem candidate, independent Adrian Freeland who was the Lib Dem candidate in Torrington Rural in May.  The Conservatives have selected Bideford-based Phil Pester, who was a district councillor in Bideford South ward until losing his seat to Labour in 2011.  UKIP have gone for county councillor Robin Julian, who is based in Hartland, about twenty miles away from the ward; he gained the Bideford South and Hartland division from the Conservatives in May.  Independent David Cox rose from bottom of the poll in the 2007 district election here to runner-up in 2011, and will hope to finish first this time.  Completing the ballot paper is Cathrine Simmons, the regular Green Party candidate for the
town.

Parliamentary constituency: Torridge and West Devon
Devon county council division: Torrington Rural
ONS Travel to Work Area: Bideford

David Cox (Ind)
Adrian Freeland (Ind)
Robin Julian (UKIP)
Phil Pester (C)
Cathrine Simmons (Grn)

May 2011 result C 809 Ind 792/480 LD 641/209 Lab 312 UKIP 208
May 2007 result Ind 693/490/476/179 C 620 LD 495 Grn 352
May 2003 result Ind 645/424/254 LD 376/364/243 Grn 212

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

YEWDALE, Carlisle city council, Cumbria; caused by the death of the Leader of the Council, Labour councillor Prof Joe Hendry, at the age of 67.  A visiting professor at Strathclyde Business School, he had served as council leader since 2012.

Covering an area of outer south-western Carlisle either side of the Orton Road, this is one of the more prosperous of Carlisle's wards.  It turned into a key marginal during the last Labour government as Labour and the Conservatives vied for control of Carlisle, but during the Blair years Labour always had the edge here and the Tories had to wait until the 2008 election to finally break through, repeating the gain at the 2009 county council election (until this May the ward had the same boundaries as the Yewdale county division, and even now there is very little difference in the boundaries).  Majorities in this period were regularly tiny: 21 votes in 2002, 34 votes in 2004, 47 votes in 2006, 10 votes in 2007, 42 votes for the Conservatives in 2008, 89 votes for the Tories in 2009.  The Tory runner-up in '06 and '07 was former Vote UK forum poster Gareth Ellis.  Labour's fortunes in the ward have recovered since the formation of the coalition, and
they easily regained the Tory seats in 2012 and 2013.  Joe Hendry had been a councillor throughout this period, most recently re-elected in 2011.

Defending for Labour is Tom Dodd, the secretary of Carlisle constituency Labour Party.  Christine Finlayson is the Conservative candidate.  Also standing are Terence Jones for the Liberal Democrats, Charmian McCutcheon for the Greens and UKIP's Mike Owen.

Parliamentary constituency: Carlisle
Cumbria county council division: Yewdale
ONS Travel to Work Area: Carlisle

Tom Dodd (Lab)
Christine Finlayson (C)
Terence Jones (LD)
Charmian McCutcheon (Grn)
Mike Owen (UKIP)

May 2012 result Lab 1222 C 730 LD 57 Grn 55
May 2011 result Lab 1254 C 845
May 2010 result Lab 1653 C 1353 TUSC 176 Grn 173
June 2009 county council election C 802 Lab 713 LD 249 BNP 185 Grn 109
May 2008 result C 945 Lab 903 BNP 326
May 2007 result Lab 988 C 978
May 2006 result Lab 797 C 750 LD 327
May 2005 county council election Lab 1890 C 1202
June 2004 result Lab 1016 C 982
May 2003 result Lab 831 C 624 LD 167
May 2002 result Lab 729 C 708 LD 157

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

For what it's worth, this would have been the Holy Word for Tuesday:

MAYBURY AND SHEERWATER, Woking borough council, Surrey; caused by the election of Liberal Democrat councillor Mohammed Bashir being declared void on petition.  The election court found that Bashir and his agents had engaged in corrupt and illegal practices at the May 2012 election: they were found to have won the election by entering false names into the electoral register and applying for and using postal votes from those non-existent electors.  Bashir is now disqualified from holding any elective office for five years and has also been struck off the electoral register.

This is a long thin ward in north-eastern Woking, sandwiched between the South Western railway line to the south and the Basingstoke Canal to the north, and also including an area of housing on the south side of the line north of College Road and East Hill.

It may surprise people who know Woking mainly for the HG Wells novel War of the Worlds that Woking has a long-standing Muslim connection: the Shah Jahan Mosque was the first mosque ever built in the UK, described in the election court's judgment [M/336/12, Ali v Bashir and another, https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/170955/response/417533/attach/4/Full%20Executive%20of%20the%20Judgment%2029%20July%202013.pdf] as "a charming small building in the Mughal style, a mini-Taj Mahal plonked down in the Surrey woodlands".  The result of this has been to produce a ward which shares many of the common features of electoral wards with a large Asian Muslim population: party labels within the Asian community start to become secondary to which candidate comes from whose extended family, whose extended family comes from which village in Pakistan or Kashmir, and so on.  Such family ties are not the only things which have been imported from the subcontinent: a senior Labour figure in Woking and former secretary of the Mosque, Sabir Hussain, was quoted in the judgment as saying that

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2012 was by no means the first time electoral fraud had been alleged in Maybury and Sheerwater ward.  The CPS had decided not to prosecute allegations on several previous occasions, and Woking council had invited the candidates to sign up to an "acceptable behaviour" protocol in advance of the 2012 election.  Clearly that didn't work.

Previous election results for the ward do bear quite a few of the above hallmarks.  The list below shows some wild gyrations, and it's important to bear in mind not just whch party is represented but which community their candidate is from.  The ward was safe Labour in 2002 and 2003 (it is the strongest Labour ward in Woking) with none of the candidates being from the Asian community.  In 2004 both the Conservatives and Labour nominated Muslim candidates; with a huge rise in turnout compared to 2003, the Conservatives won the seat by 147 votes.  The Tory majority increased to 461 votes in 2006 and the ward looked safe for them.  The final Labour seat in the ward went in 2007, their outgoing councillor Elizabeth Evans finishing a poor third behind Mohammed Bashir for the Liberal Democrats, who was 137 votes behind the winning Conservative candidate Muzaffar Ali.  Bashir came back for the 2008 election and won on a big swing, gaining the seat from the Conservatives. 

The years 2010-2012 saw the three ward councillors successively re-elected with narrow majorities: Tory by 163 votes over the Lib Dems in 2010; Tory by 45 votes over Labour in 2011 with the Lib Dems close behind, all three major parties fielding Muslim candidates for the first time; Lib Dem by 12 votes over Labour in the now-voided 2012 election, the Conservatives falling back badly.  In May this ward formed part of the Woking North county council division, which was narrowly won by the Conservatives over Labour.

Trying to pick up the shattered pieces for the defending Liberal Democrats is Norman Johns, a councillor between 2006 and 2010 for Mount Hermon East ward on the other side of the railway line.  Mohammad Ali, the successful petitioner, has decided not to stand for election again and Stephen Tudhope has taken over as the Labour candidate; he is a management consultant who fought the ward in 2010.  Fighting for the Conservatives is Mohammed Rashid, a former master baker who now runs a taxi firm.  Completing the ballot paper is UKIP candidate Neil Willetts.

Parliamentary constituency: Woking
Surrey county council division: Woking North
ONS Travel to Work Area: Guildford and Aldershot

Norman Johns (LD)
Rashid Mohammed (C)
Stephen Tudhope (Lab)
Neil Willetts (UKIP)

May 2012 void election LD 1088 Lab 1072 C 685 UKIP 345
May 2011 result C 1061 Lab 1016 LD 899 UKIP 434
May 2010 result C 2034 LD 1871 Lab 525 UKIP 305
May 2008 result LD 1551 C 1104 Lab 363 UKIP 139
May 2007 result C 1177 LD 1040 Lab 665 UKIP 92 UK Community Issues Party 63
May 2006 result C 1357 Lab 896 LD 389 UK Community Issues Party 150
June 2004 result C 1142 Lab 995 LD 661 Health and Community Issues Party 98
May 2003 result Lab 593 LD 397 C 289 Ind 174
May 2002 result Lab 950 C 293 LD 227 Ind 137