Who will win the 2014 FIFA World Cup?

[Edu]

Voted for Colombia because they are who I want to win the World Cup (And I think they have a chance), I guess that the team that will win the world cup will be some horrible team like Brazil, Germany or the Netherlands.

[Edu]

According to 538, Brazil is a 39% favorite, followed by Argentina at 20%.

haha, good one.

[Edu]

According to 538, Brazil is a 39% favorite, followed by Argentina at 20%.

haha, good one.

It's based on ESPN's Soccer Power Index, which, like everything related to ESPN, is terrible.

That's only part of it. It also includes homefield advantage, how good the individual players are on the team, and how they've been doing in the World Cup so far. And 538's probabilities have been very good so far this Cup.

I don't really know what the ESPN Soccer Power Index is, but it sounds dumb.
The thing is that for instance I don't even know what Homefield advantage means. We haven't won a major international tournament that was hosted by Brazil in like...ever I think. Certainly we haven't won a World Cup or a Copa America in Brazil. Maybe he means advantage because we are playing in South America? Well, apart from 1930 (a very primitive World Cup) and 1978 (we were playing at Argentina under a dictatorship that obviously rigged a couple of matches), we haven't done that well in World Cups in South America. Brazil and Argentina for the most part don't even have the same climate.
And considering the long standing rivalry and animosity between Argentina and Brazil, the fact that the World Cup is being held in Brazil shouldn't be that much of an advantage if any.

"How good individual players are on the team?"? has this guy been watching what I watched? If it weren't for Messi we would be absolutely disastrous. Apart from a few shines by Lavezzi, Di Maria and Romero we have been pretty crappy, not really playing as a team but as a bunch of guys trying to outhit the ball (and doing it poorly by the way)

We beat Bosnia, Iran, Nigeria and Switzerland...LOL World Cup contenders they are not.


Maybe Silvers probabilities have been very good so far, but to consider Argentina the Second favorite, despite having Belgium and Netherlands as potential opponent (and of course a bunch of other teams on the other half to beat in the final) makes me believe that Snowstalker is right and maybe he's been paying too much attention to the ESPN Soccer ratings of whatever.

Of course this may also mean that I don't know anything about probability and statistics which is also posible

Sorry if this is a somewhat incoherent posts, I'm a little bit drunk right now

[Edu]

According to 538, Brazil is a 39% favorite, followed by Argentina at 20%.

haha, good one.

It's based on ESPN's Soccer Power Index, which, like everything related to ESPN, is terrible.

That's only part of it. It also includes homefield advantage, how good the individual players are on the team, and how they've been doing in the World Cup so far. And 538's probabilities have been very good so far this Cup.

I don't really know what the ESPN Soccer Power Index is, but it sounds dumb.
The thing is that for instance I don't even know what Homefield advantage means. We haven't won a major international tournament that was hosted by Brazil in like...ever I think. Certainly we haven't won a World Cup or a Copa America in Brazil. Maybe he means advantage because we are playing in South America? Well, apart from 1930 (a very primitive World Cup) and 1978 (we were playing at Argentina under a dictatorship that obviously rigged a couple of matches), we haven't done that well in World Cups in South America. Brazil and Argentina for the most part don't even have the same climate.
And considering the long standing rivalry and animosity between Argentina and Brazil, the fact that the World Cup is being held in Brazil shouldn't be that much of an advantage if any.

"How good individual players are on the team?"? has this guy been watching what I watched? If it weren't for Messi we would be absolutely disastrous. Apart from a few shines by Lavezzi, Di Maria and Romero we have been pretty crappy, not really playing as a team but as a bunch of guys trying to outhit the ball (and doing it poorly by the way)

We beat Bosnia, Iran, Nigeria and Switzerland...LOL World Cup contenders they are not.

Yeah, but you could say something pretty similar about every other team except the Dutch.

Not really, Brazil isn't playing well, but they certainly destroyed Cameroon. Colombia Cruised trough their group and beat Uruguay decisively. Costa Rica beat Uruguay and Italy, two strong teams when everyone was expecting them to go out in the first round. France has been pretty great. Germany did destroy Portugal, had an entertaining match with Ghana and beat the US, then it had an entertaining match against Algeria. Belgium didn't have any great matches and it's similar to us in a number of ways, burt they have a good offense and a good defence, we have a crap defence and I would only consider us slightly favorites over them.

The fact is that with the team we have we should have cruised trough the group and the round of 16th, instead every damn match was a torture where we got bailed by Messi (even  in the Switzerland match the goal came from a great pass by him)