Will all 3 South Florida counties swing more than 10% to the right?

[ProgressiveModerate]

As a collective or individually?

One side fun fact: it's theoretically possible for each of the 3 counties to have >10% swings but as a collective less than a 10% swing if Broward had disproportionately strong turnout. The reverse is also true and honestly has a non-zero chance of happening.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone think the shift in the Big 3 is a temporary Trump/DeSantis era thing. Or is it a long term thing. I mean it would totally buck the normal trends of high population - dense areas being Dem friendly (I mean it’s Dem friendly compared to the rest of Florida but this area - along with Hillsborough and Orange) acted as counterbalance to the rest of the state and now they’re becoming swing counties (and not the fun kind of swing).

My in laws stay on the Palm Beach / Broward border for 3 months every winter and I usually go down and spend a week with them and a week in Downtown Miami - and it makes no sense to me how (especially Miami) is shifting right. Nothing about Miami says Republican

To be fair South Florida is massive - there are some pockets that give Dems strong margins and aren't really shifting right. My sense it it's a combination of certain Hispanic groups shifting hard right and some self sorting amongst the upper middle classs/wealthy Republican folks into South Florida.