Which Florida counties flip?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seminole is too upscale and white to back Trump again. The Stephanie Murphy FL-07 seat didn't even vote for Rubio in 2022. Trump has a better shot of flipping Osceola county. Duval is also possible, but I think Biden narrowly holds on tp ot.

Also funny enough Seminole County is the best County for Dems when it comes to D v R registration change since 2020 Pres - Rs still out register Ds but large independent block that seems to favor Dems.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hillsborough will be really interesting to watch imo. The County has been remarkably stagnant Presidentially since 2008 (D+7), but recent regristration and 2022 makes it seem like the County could lurch right and even flip in 2024. Miami-Dade and Hillsborough have the chance to be the 2 largest Republican voting counties nationally.

Despite it's consistency Presidentially the County has always seemed to be a bit more favorable to Republicans downballot - Rubio carried it in 2016 and Scott in 2014 for instance, so 2022 results may be a bit misleading - especially since Dems didn't do uniquely bad there in the context of the state in 2022.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hillsborough will be really interesting to watch imo. The County has been remarkably stagnant Presidentially since 2008 (D+7), but recent regristration and 2022 makes it seem like the County could lurch right and even flip in 2024. Miami-Dade and Hillsborough have the chance to be the 2 largest Republican voting counties nationally.

Despite it's consistency Presidentially the County has always seemed to be a bit more favorable to Republicans downballot - Rubio carried it in 2016 and Scott in 2014 for instance, so 2022 results may be a bit misleading - especially since Dems didn't do uniquely bad there in the context of the state in 2022.

Crist carried Hillsborough in 2014, although just barely.

Pinellas and Pasco are more similar than Pinellas and Hillsborough. In Hillsborough, I'd estimate the 55% of Whites have a college degree. That might be 40% in Pinellas and 30% in Pasco.

Hillsborough definitely is more typically Southern. More class and racial polarization. South Tampa is very similar to Buckhead in Atlanta. Pinellas and Pasco have demographics more like someplace like Saginaw County, MI than Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, etc. Interior Pinellas and the Pasco Coast are filled with heavily White trailer parks that loved Clinton, Gore, and even Obama through 2012. These communities have unsurprisingly swung massively to Trump, but they remained Dem for a long time, and backed Crist to a hilt in 2014.

Holiday, FL (Southern Coastal Pasco, pop 25k):
75% White, 15% Hispanic, 7% Black, 11% Bachelor's attainment

2000: D+14
2012: D+10
2014: D+13
2016: R+15
2020: R+19

Oops my bad I think I meant to say Scott came close.

Hillsborough County is interested because college educational attainment is actually pretty good and those communities have swung left since 2008/2012 but the swing in non-college areas to the right has been more intense than many other major American metro areas. One underrated factor at play is west of downtown there is a pretty notable Cuban community that like Cubans in Miami-Dade swung hard right in 2020 and again in 2022.

Definitely agree with what you said on all the "trailer home" types communities around the greater Tampa area particularly up the coast. I think many people just see Pinellas and Pasco Counties as "suburban" because of their high population and so treat them as counties that should be shifting left, but as you point these trailer park areas are much more similliar demographically and in their behavior to the rural midwest which is why Dems continue to lose ground in places like Pasco County during the Trump years.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hillsborough will be really interesting to watch imo. The County has been remarkably stagnant Presidentially since 2008 (D+7), but recent regristration and 2022 makes it seem like the County could lurch right and even flip in 2024. Miami-Dade and Hillsborough have the chance to be the 2 largest Republican voting counties nationally.

Despite it's consistency Presidentially the County has always seemed to be a bit more favorable to Republicans downballot - Rubio carried it in 2016 and Scott in 2014 for instance, so 2022 results may be a bit misleading - especially since Dems didn't do uniquely bad there in the context of the state in 2022.

Crist carried Hillsborough in 2014, although just barely.

Pinellas and Pasco are more similar than Pinellas and Hillsborough. In Hillsborough, I'd estimate the 55% of Whites have a college degree. That might be 40% in Pinellas and 30% in Pasco.

Hillsborough definitely is more typically Southern. More class and racial polarization. South Tampa is very similar to Buckhead in Atlanta. Pinellas and Pasco have demographics more like someplace like Saginaw County, MI than Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, etc. Interior Pinellas and the Pasco Coast are filled with heavily White trailer parks that loved Clinton, Gore, and even Obama through 2012. These communities have unsurprisingly swung massively to Trump, but they remained Dem for a long time, and backed Crist to a hilt in 2014.

Holiday, FL (Southern Coastal Pasco, pop 25k):
75% White, 15% Hispanic, 7% Black, 11% Bachelor's attainment

2000: D+14
2012: D+10
2014: D+13
2016: R+15
2020: R+19

Oops my bad I think I meant to say Scott came close.

Hillsborough County is interested because college educational attainment is actually pretty good and those communities have swung left since 2008/2012 but the swing in non-college areas to the right has been more intense than many other major American metro areas. One underrated factor at play is west of downtown there is a pretty notable Cuban community that like Cubans in Miami-Dade swung hard right in 2020 and again in 2022.

Definitely agree with what you said on all the "trailer home" types communities around the greater Tampa area particularly up the coast. I think many people just see Pinellas and Pasco Counties as "suburban" because of their high population and so treat them as counties that should be shifting left, but as you point these trailer park areas are much more similliar demographically and in their behavior to the rural midwest which is why Dems continue to lose ground in places like Pasco County during the Trump years.

I don't think it's fair to say that Miami-Dade swung hard right in 2020 + 2022 just because of the Cubans. Yes, they are the largest constituency in Miami-Dade but no one makes up 200,000 Raw Votes in Miami-Dade, like Trump did in 2020, just because of the Cuban Vote. The math doesn't support that.
As I said numerous times in various other Threads regarding South Florida Trump & Republicans also made massive inroads into other Latin America Subgroups like Venezuelans, Colombians, Nicaraguans and even people from Panama & Guatemala.

Agree - Hillsborough has that dynamic too but on a smaller scale.