Vice President Christian Man
Christian Man
Junior Chimp
Posts: 7,741
Political Matrix E: -1.94, S: -2.26
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« on: May 05, 2024, 01:20:22 PM » |
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« edited: May 05, 2024, 01:38:17 PM by Vice President Christian Man »
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Barring something like a repeat of the Great Recession, I believe that this country is too polarized for a supermajority from any party. But if one were to occur, it may play a role in creating it although it wouldn't be the only factor. It was inevitable that the Democrats decision to rebrand itself as a catch-all for anti-Trumpism would eventually collapse and lead to the divide that we're currently seeing. If the progressive faction wins, you risk alienating moderates which are a shrinking but crucial demographic in many swing states and suburban areas. If the conservative faction wins, you risk many progressives staying home or voting third party. And incidentally Biden is simultaneously alienating both of these groups which plays a role in explaining his low approval ratings. You could gamble that Trump would be enough to keep people for voting for Biden, but it's clear that this is an unsuccessful strategy especially considering that politicians like Glenn Youngkin and Ron DeSantis won over many of these voters and Trump is likely to as well if the current pace continues. This would lead to a loss for the Democrats, but if Trump wins in 2024 and the Democrats can recruit a strong candidate in 2028, it's unlikely to become a death sentence for the party. As Scott wrote the other day, Biden is terrible at taking credit for his accomplishments and without any major victories to report, Trump would be able to further play into the narrative that Biden is ineffective and incompetent.
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