The dynamics of CA-21 are crazy. It voted for Clinton by 16 points but Valadao won by 13. I know he lost in 2018, but he came back again this year while overperforming Trump by a massive amount. Does the Hispanic surname carry that much weight? Or is always that GOP downballot?
Valadao has faced weak opponents since he was first elected. DCCC didn't really target him in 2016, so I guess that explains him overperforming Trump by 29 points.
Valadao is actually Portuguese, but his surname does indeed sound Hispanic. I think it does carry some weight, also it's worth mentioning that he's pro-DACA even though he's generally pretty conservative (voted with Trump 98% of the time! Lol). The district voted for Newsom by 4 points, so it's pretty R downballot, but not that much relative to CA as a whole.
This year, he overperformed Trump by roughly 12 points, and it appears he was aided by Cox's scandals and Trump's stronger-than-expected performance in the district. He should be fine in 2022, but he'll be in trouble in 2024 if the DCCC contests CA-21, and they surely will.
