Republican path to victory in 2012

[zorkpolitics]

In 2008 Obama won 365 Electoral votes, since it takes 270 EV to win, he has a significant margin to lose states and still win. However, the 2012 election will be after apportionment which will shift a net 6 EV to Republican leaning states (not counting the states listed below), so Obama can lose 89 EV and still win. Below is a list swing states Obama won rank ordered from narrowest win to largest margin. At this point I think Obama would lose NC, IN, FL, OH, VA losing 85 EV, so for a Republican to win they need to win only one of the remaining swing states 9 swing states.

State          Winning % 200    2012 EV
North Carolina   49.7                  15
Indiana           49.9                  11
Florida            50.9                  28
Ohio               51.4                  18
Virginia           52.6                  13
      
Colorado          53.7                   9
Iowa               53.9                   6
Minnesota         54.1                 10
New Hampshire  54.1                   4
Pennsylvania    54.5                 20
Nevada           55.2                   6
Wisconsin        56.2                 10
Oregon            56.7                   7
New Mexico      56.9                   5

Can Obama be defeated in '12?  Where shoudlt eh Republicans focus to win?