States that will fall away from Obama in 2012

[zorkpolitics]

Since the census will likely switch 6-7 EV to the Republicans, their path to the Whitehouse is slightly easier in 2012.
Looking at the two party vote in 2008 we can rank order the likely switches:
State          Dem Winning % 2008    2012 EV
North Carolina   49.7                       15
Indiana           49.9                          11
Florida            50.9                           28
Ohio               51.4                           18
Virginia           52.6                           13
     
Given Obama's fall in the Polls, NC, IN, FL are highly likely to go Republican.  I think OH will also fall but VA is a toss up, with the huge growth in the federal government comes new Democratic voters in N. VA  However if VA goes Republican, then the Republicans only need one of the following to win:

Colorado          53.7                   9
Iowa               53.9                   6
Minnesota         54.1                 10
New Hampshire  54.1                   4
Pennsylvania    54.5                 20
Nevada           55.2                   6
Wisconsin        56.2                 10
Oregon            56.7                   7
New Mexico      56.9                   5

Of course having a good Republican candidate would help!