Canadian by-elections 2023

[Benjamin Frank]

Not totally fitting this thread, but does anybody have any updates on the Newfoundland and Labrador NDP leadership race? They had wanted a new leader in place by the end of 2022.

I know the Newfoundland and Labrador P.C Leadership race has been set for October 2023.

[Benjamin Frank]

Bob Benzen in announcing he would step down gave a self important speech in which he proclaimed that he was not 'a career politician.'

That's fine, but if that's the case then why did he run again in 2021?

What's the difference between not running in 2021 and not stepping down at the end of 2022?

In 2022 Bob Benzen served 6 years and qualified for a pension.

Is there any other reason this clown chose to run again in 2021 other than to get a pension?

[Benjamin Frank]

Preston is nowhere close to being "majority Black". It was designed to be a Black opportunity district, but the riding is still overwhelmingly White. There are only 3 dissemination areas in the riding that are a majority Black, and they correspond to the communities in the riding named Preston (Preston, East Preston and North Preston), which may be the source of the confusion. Interestingly, North Preston voted NDP in 2021, but Preston and East Preston voted Liberal.

In the 2021 election in this riding, the Liberals won with about 42% of the vote while the P.Cs and NDP tied at about 28%.

If the NDP nominate a high profile candidate, they likely have a good chance to win it. If it is accurate the Zach Churchill is faltering as Liberal Party leader, Claudia Chender seems to be a lot more mainstream than Garry Burrill and the NDP might have a chance to make a significant comeback in at least the Halifax Metro Area.

[Benjamin Frank]

John Tory resigned as mayor of Toronto after admitting to an affair with a young staffer.

Also, John Horgan is stepping down as an MLA likely on St. Patrick's Day.

[Benjamin Frank]

P.C cabinet minister and Transit Minister (Associate Minister of Transportation) Stan Cho and Liberal M.P Nathaniel Erskine Smith have both announced they aren't running for Toronto Mayor.

These are the possibles according to wiki:
1.Ana Bailão, former deputy mayor of Toronto (2017–2022) and former city councillor for Davenport (2010–2022)
2.Brad Bradford, city councillor for Beaches—East York (2018–present)
3.Alejandra Bravo, city councillor for Davenport (2022–present), ran for Federal NDP in 2021.
4.Chloe Brown, third-place finisher in the 2022 mayoral election.
5.Celina Caesar-Chavannes, former Liberal MP for Whitby (2015–2019)
6.Josh Colle, former city councillor for Eglinton—Lawrence (2010–2018) and former chair of the Toronto Transit Commission (2014–2018).
7.Michael Coteau, Liberal MP for Don Valley East (2021–present), former provincial cabinet minister (2013–2018)
8.Isabella Gamk, welfare and disability advocate, twenty-fifth place finisher in the 2022 mayoral election
9.Ari Goldkind, lawyer and fourth-place finisher in the 2014 mayoral election (also a national media loudmouth, but an informed loudmouth.)
10.Mitzie Hunter, Liberal MPP for Scarborough—Guildwood (2013–present), former provincial cabinet minister (2014–2018)
11.Ahmed Hussen, federal Minister of Housing and Diversity and Inclusion (2021–present) and Liberal MP for York South—Weston (2015–present)
12.Bhutila Karpoche, New Democratic MPP for Parkdale—High Park (2018–present)
13.Giorgio Mammoliti, former city councillor for York West (2000–2018), former New Democratic Party MPP for Yorkview (1990–1995) (but now very right wing.)
14.Denzil Minan-Wong, former deputy mayor of Toronto (2014–2022) and former city councillor for Don Valley East (1998–2022)
15.Kristyn Wong-Tam, New Democratic MPP for Toronto Centre (2022–present) and former city councillor for Toronto Centre-Rosedale (2010–2022)

[Benjamin Frank]

P.C cabinet minister and Transit Minister (Associate Minister of Transportation) Stan Cho and Liberal M.P Nathaniel Erskine Smith have both announced they aren't running for Toronto Mayor.

These are the possibles according to wiki:
1.Ana Bailão, former deputy mayor of Toronto (2017–2022) and former city councillor for Davenport (2010–2022)
2.Brad Bradford, city councillor for Beaches—East York (2018–present)
3.Alejandra Bravo, city councillor for Davenport (2022–present), ran for Federal NDP in 2021.
4.Chloe Brown, third-place finisher in the 2022 mayoral election.
5.Celina Caesar-Chavannes, former Liberal MP for Whitby (2015–2019)
6.Josh Colle, former city councillor for Eglinton—Lawrence (2010–2018) and former chair of the Toronto Transit Commission (2014–2018).
7.Michael Coteau, Liberal MP for Don Valley East (2021–present), former provincial cabinet minister (2013–2018)
8.Isabella Gamk, welfare and disability advocate, twenty-fifth place finisher in the 2022 mayoral election
9.Ari Goldkind, lawyer and fourth-place finisher in the 2014 mayoral election (also a national media loudmouth, but an informed loudmouth.)
10.Mitzie Hunter, Liberal MPP for Scarborough—Guildwood (2013–present), former provincial cabinet minister (2014–2018)
11.Ahmed Hussen, federal Minister of Housing and Diversity and Inclusion (2021–present) and Liberal MP for York South—Weston (2015–present)
12.Bhutila Karpoche, New Democratic MPP for Parkdale—High Park (2018–present)
13.Giorgio Mammoliti, former city councillor for York West (2000–2018), former New Democratic Party MPP for Yorkview (1990–1995) (but now very right wing.)
14.Denzil Minan-Wong, former deputy mayor of Toronto (2014–2022) and former city councillor for Don Valley East (1998–2022)
15.Kristyn Wong-Tam, New Democratic MPP for Toronto Centre (2022–present) and former city councillor for Toronto Centre-Rosedale (2010–2022)

Gil Penalosa (2nd place to Tory last year) has already said he will run; I'd rule out any of the NDP names, especially Wong-Tam she just won her seat.

I had heard Bailão wanted to run last year since Tory said he would not, then did and well lets say she was none to pleased and decided not to run at all. I'd say she might.
Bradford would be the Tory stand in so probably, Minan-Wong is another maybe. I'd venture at least a couple others from council might run

Sort of according to CBC's As It Happens there is a push-back against Tory resigning at all.

https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-2-as-it-happens/clip/15966389-the-cruelest-lesson

At the 27:40 mark city Councilor John Burnside is interviewed and he said he spoke to Tory about reconsidering resigning, though possibly take a leave of absence during the investigation. Burnside said city councilor Francis Nunziata is in agreeement with him.

[Benjamin Frank]

John Tory resigned as mayor of Toronto after admitting to an affair with a young staffer.

Also, John Horgan is stepping down as an MLA likely on St. Patrick's Day.

The Langford-Juan de Fuca will be a slam for the NDP, by party rules the candidate will be a woman I believe. The Greens may have a shot but this seat since its creation in 91 has been NDP except for once in the 2001 BCL sweep.
Horgan pulled in almost 70% here (67%) which I highly doubt will happen again, but typically the NDP pulls in about over 50%. Anything less than that, the party should be worried, but I doubt that will happen

1.I think the rules are still in place, but it's a woman or member of a minority group (not necessarily visible minority) and the party seems to be backing a youngish (28) political staffer and Sooke school trustee and board chair, Ravi Parmar.

2.This is actually a more interesting riding than one might think. Langford B.C has been the fastest growing area by population percentage in British Columbia over the last 20 or so years. Although only incorporated in 1992, it's population in the 2021 census was 46,584.
Until the recent 2022 municipal election, it consistently voted for right wing leaning candidates at the municipal level anyway. So, it could be interesting. The Liberals are considering running the only mayor Langford had from 1992-2022, Stew Young, but they also want to run younger candidates.

Interestingly though, Stew Young endorsed Parmar for school board.
"Young held his Community First Langford campaign launch in a crowded meeting room in an office building on Peatt Road on September 8. He also took that opportunity to promote his pick for school board (Ravi Parmar, Russ Chipps and Christine Lervold — who were in the room)."
https://islandsocialtrends.ca/langford-saga-former-mayor-and-defacto-mayor/

[Benjamin Frank]

Didn't Stew Young just lose? I get the impression he's not that popular anymore.

Yes, he did. He had been mayor for 30 years prior to that though.

[Benjamin Frank]

NDP Vancouver-Mount Pleasant MLA Melanie Mark is retiring at the end of March, I think.

The NDP hopes to recruit an indigenous women to replace Mark (she's indigenous herself.) For all of the NDP's gains with East Asians especially, and having a number of South Asian MLAs already, Melanie Mark is the only indigenous NDP MLA. Carole James was also an indigenous NDP MLA.

Several indigenous candidates ran for the NDP in the interior in 2021 but they all lost, even though they all ran in ridings the NDP had held historically (back to 1972 anyway) (Fraser-Nicola previously known as Yale-Lilloet, Columbia River-Revelstoke and Skeena held by Liberal indigenous (and hard right) MLA Ellis Ross.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/abelxnstracker/status/1631889073827885057
He is also one of the senior people in what the Canadian media laughingly refers to as the 'nonpartisan' MacDonald Laurier Institute.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/abelxnstracker/status/1631889073827885057
He is also one of the senior people in what the Canadian media laughingly refers to as the 'nonpartisan' MacDonald Laurier Institute.

This byelection won't tell us much, the CPC nomination election is what determines the MP for Calgary Heritage. But this Majumdar guy might actually be one to watch. His background seems similar to someone like Melissa Lantsman, who Poilievre has really elevated and that seems to have been a good call. The Alberta caucus is a competitive field for a Tory to rise through the ranks, but being a visible minority can't hurt in that regard.

He certainly has a substantial foreign policy background with a Conservative bent.  Of course, from Calgary, Stephanie Kusie has a similar foreign policy background though on the diplomatic side. She's the Shadow Treasury Board minister.

[Benjamin Frank]

Hamilton Centre by-election is tomorrow.

[Benjamin Frank]

NDP at 58% with 6 of 53 polls reporting.

[Benjamin Frank]

Hate to be that guy, but I don't think there's anything to be interpreted from the Hamilton Centre byelection. Sure, a slight NDP->OLP transfer, but that's probably reversion to the mean more than anything else. I mean, not only did Horwath have a leadership bump, she held this riding and its predecessor for 18 years. The OLP has a lot of work to do before we can definitively say they're back.

On top of that, Hamilton Centre is as quintessentially NDP as it gets. The Liberals do have a history of winning here, but it requires many things to go right for them and wrong for the NDP. If Trudeaumania (TM) wasn't enough to even get within striking distance of turning this seat red, Minivan Caucus (TM) never had a chance. Obviously the PCs are a complete non-starter here, and it showed.

Well, there would have been no urge to interpret anything were it not for the NDP candidate controversy "forcing the issue".  Were it a more orthodox "Matthew Green" type of municipal leftist bearing the standard, there really would be no reason to bother seeing anything here.  But w/Jama, the main story is the negligible effect said controversy had on the vote.

And sure, the OLP have a minivan caucus--however, they just had their annual meeting in Hamilton which, on paper, *ought to have* energized the base; and we know from the Lib Dems in the UK that monkey-in-the-middle rump "middle parties" *can* muster a lot of maverick byelection energy.  It's just that, out of power and reduced to a minivan rump two elections in a row, the OLP is *that* energy-depleted.  (That those sounding the alarm over Jama stopped short of endorsing an alternative didn't help the Libs' cause, presuming that they're the only other even vaguely "electable" alternative here.)

If 20% in the byelection isn't Liberalmentum I don't know what is!

[Benjamin Frank]

Over the next week, Toronto (and parts of the U.S midwest) are going to go from their present heat (near extreme heat) back to snow.

Global warming didn't seem to be a big factor in the late summer 2021 election, but I have to figure these sorts of extreme weather and extreme weather changes are going to hurt the Conservatives, especially as they're lead by a defacto global warming denier.

[Benjamin Frank]

Mitzie Hunter officially resigned her seat. Wonder if she'll run in the by-election to succeed herself if she loses the mayoral election.

Has that happened before?
I'd assume her days at QP would be over now. If she fails at her run for mayor (very likely) she could run for council and likely be a shoe-in

There are provinces that have rules that if an M.P changes parties they have to step down and run in a by-election but I don't think that's ever been triggered.

However, Liberal M.P Sheila Copps was found to have promised in the 1993 election that the Liberals would get rid of the GST and not replace it with anything. As punishment, she agreed to resign her seat and immediately ran in the by-election.

https://www.cbc.ca/archives/copps-gst-byelection-1996-1.5541297
The GST, a broken promise and a lot of drama for Sheila Copps

[Benjamin Frank]

And it was the norm back in the day when you had to resign your seat if appointed to cabinet.

What? So you would be elected as MP/MPP/MLA, and if you get appointed to cabinet, resign your seat in the legislature and let someone else take it?

No. It was even stupider than that. You'd be elected as an MP, appointed to cabinet, resign your seat, stand in the by-election, get reelected (presumably) and carry on as if nothing happened.

What was the logic behind that stupidity ?

An M.P was considered to be in the service of their constituency, and if they wanted to be part of the executive, they needed the approval of their constituents.

[Benjamin Frank]

As expected, the NDP acclaimed Sooke school trustee and political staffer Ravi Parmar for the Langford-Juan de Fuca by-election.
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/ndp-names-sooke-school-trustee-as-candidate-for-langford-juan-de-fuca-byelection-1.6397650

B.C United meanwhile have nominated Elena Lawson, a co-founder of the Children's Autism Federation of B.C.
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/b-c-united-announces-autism-advocate-as-candidate-for-langford-juan-de-fuca-byelection-1.6392701

And the Green Party have nominated Camille Currie
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/green-candidate-announced-for-langford-juan-de-fuca-byelection-6828026

[Benjamin Frank]

EDIT: Due the Albert provincial election, Calgary Heritage will be called after the election

Wimps.

In November 1988, residents of Welland and Thorold voted in an provincial by-election on the 3rd, a municipal election on the 14th, and a federal election on the 21st.

Can you blame them? The provincial by-election elected Peter Kormos (RIP.)

[Benjamin Frank]

All of the five likeliest new M.Ps: Ben Carr, Brandon Leslie, Arpan Khanna and Anna Gainey as well as Shuvaloy Majumdar in Calgary Heritage are or were political staffers at some level.

[Benjamin Frank]

Rob Shaw: NDP to acclaim Indigenous leader and climate activist Joan Phillip to run in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
https://biv.com/article/2023/04/rob-shaw-ndp-acclaims-indigenous-leader-and-climate-activist-joan-phillip-run

[Benjamin Frank]

I drove through Oxford on the way to the cottage yesterday.  The Conservatives were the only party with signs up in Woodstock.  In the rural area, the leading sign was "RESUME SPRAYING".

Do you think Resume Spraying has a chance of winning the by-election?

[Benjamin Frank]

A record 48 candidates are running in Winnipeg South Centre of which 42 are part of the Longest Ballot Committee. It will interesting if any of the candidates won't get a single vote.

https://www.elections.ca/Scripts/vis/candidates?L=e&ED=46014&EV=55&EV_TYPE=3&PROV=MB&PROVID=46&QID=-1&PAGEID=17

A bunch of these candidates ran in Mississauga Lakeshore
 
https://elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr_2022/54/table12E.html

101 people are running for mayor of Toronto. This by election is a slacker.

[Benjamin Frank]

The NDP should've been targeting NDG more (or just as much) IMO. Not exactly winnable, but getting a good result there would be good for the Montreal base. The party should be trying it's best to win over progressive Anglos in the city. However, it looks like they're conceding second to the Greens.

NDP for NDG, the (bad) slogans write themselves.

[Benjamin Frank]

Though very unlikely, it would be amusing if the Conservatives lost both Portage-Lisgar and Oxford.