British Local Elections, May 2024

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It's impressive that the PCC elections are still going. I'll always remember how Theresa May (who of course has been in the news very recently) desperately insisted that they were a good idea after the initial elections in November 2012, where the turnout was slightly less than the average Sunday League team is getting as I post this.   

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It has been suggested that a lot of the Reform support in the polls is merely another way of saying 'abstain' or 'NOTA'. Of course most pollsters have such options available in their surveys, but the overall age profile of Reform appears to be significantly older and the whole 'civic duty' concept of voting is stronger and thus there is more reluctance to check those actual options.

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Individual seat results should start being declared about an hour after the polls close.

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How do they make the estimate for when a council will be declared?

They have some kind of information on when counting is due to begin, I would presume.

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Presumably there will be the usual 'projected national vote share' by the likes of Curtice, Thrasher/Rallings etc, even though the narrative is almost always firmly set by the time they get around to that.

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BBC coverage begins at 11:40PM BST tomorrow evening.

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Polls have just opened. Most of the 'news' in the MSM from now until polls close in ~15 hours will be about dogs at polling stations, due to broadcasting rules. However, anecdotes about turnout and other bits and bobs can be found on social media throughout the day.

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Of course I knew it was coming, but I nonetheless found it somewhat jarring to be asked for my ID, like I was a kid trying to get served in a pub (although in this case the specific polling worker’s manner did enhance the effect).

It's lovely to have to prove that you are not a liar and/or an aspiring criminal isn't it?

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In addition to the Tom Hunt MP story, there is also this:

theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/may/02/minister-sorry-as-veterans-find-id-card-not-valid-for-english-elections

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What happens when you have single issue candidates (e.g. all about Gaza) who get elected to a local council and discover they will spend the next three years dealing with parking and dog runs?

They have the word 'Councillor' in front of their names and that gives them more credibility, at least in their own minds, when they talk about their issue of interest.

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Polls closed.

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Obviously plenty of salt needed...

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786147033314717907

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Obviously plenty of salt needed...

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786147033314717907

I seem to recall the exact same being said of Shaun Bailey’s chances in 2021, only for him to be beaten comfortably (although, in fairness, it wasn’t the utter curbstomping that was predicted by the polls either and I assume that will again be the case).

I think that was because the more Tory friendly boroughs counted first.

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This possibly might be the latest time on a local elections night that precisely nil results have been declared. I expect the first might be one of the many by-elections taking place, as was the case, IIRC, last year.

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There was also this direct reply for the CCHQ tweet

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786150982579065118

who is this Theo Usherwood? Is he reputable?

Political editor at LBC.

I think he's been quite reliable regarding parliamentary by-elections, although in this case he's not quoting anyone on the ground and the count is about two days from actually starting.

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https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786171376727961611

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https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786171855604174930

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The extent of the anti-Tory tide has probably made the likes of Street and Houchen less confident than they were before the polls closed.

Laura K has seemingly made a lot of predictable remarks on the election night programme. I'm pretty sure I heard her say that Labour were making some gains but that it "wasn't particularly impressive".

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Houchen has won the Hartlepool division by 2,000 votes. Way down on his 13,000 majority there last time, but looks like he’s home and dry.

Tories got 35% in Hartlepool for the council elections - in the mayoral race, they won 53%

He's (narrowly) won Middlesbrough, so yes it's over.

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The previously noted rumours about the London Mayoralty being in play are persisting today.

E.g.

https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1786365188905566345

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Projected National Vote Shares are Labour 34%, Tories 25%, Lib Dems 17%, Others 24%.

I wish they'd just do away with this bollocks.

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https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1786766680745484444

Rumours the original "result" had Street losing by a few thousand votes.

Source is Tories requested the recount. You don't do that when ahead. So Put "couple thousand" and "recount" together and we know the result.

I have a recollection of Amber Rudd requesting a recount in Hastings & Rye in 2017, which she won with a majority of 346. There's a further recollection that she hired some kind of agent some time after that who would help her increase her majority (surely keeping the seat, regardless of the majority, should have been the main aim?).

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Combined results so far for England PCC's and elected mayors (where no PCC election)

Labour 42.6
Conservative 30.7
Liberal Democrat 13.0
Green 5.2 (8.9 where standing)
Others 8.5

Probably a good combination of 'expected' results and over/under performances. Worth noting that in 'cop shop' elections, you do expect the Tories to do better

If Sky News had done a general election projection based on this then it wouldn't have been met with as much derision.

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There is a full recount underway in Coventry.

Hopefully it's not based upon Coventry being really close, because that would be stupid. This isn't an Assembly or Parliamentary election and there aren't seats up for grabs in Coventry in this case. Assuming it isn't then it might indicate a really close overall result (closer than what is being reported), which would surely mean a full recount in all of the other boroughs too.

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https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786806323096514765

This is where the raw vote totals would be more useful...