Cmon, a 99% chance?
We've had a miss of 9% in one of the past 20 elections (Dewey vs Truman).
To say a 4% lead has a 99% chance of holding is just silly.
That's a 4% miss right there, just 4 elections ago.
And the Friday before the election it was revealed that Bush had been arrested for DUI in his younger days. Compared to the 2016 campaign this is almost laughably tame, but back then it was big news, and it clearly hurt Bush in the election.
Interestingly(?), I predicted a PV/EV split in that election -- but it was the wrong way around! I thought Gore would win NH and squeak out an EV victory while losing the PV by 1 or 2 percent.
