Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY) (user search)
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  Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)  (Read 203339 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: April 11, 2017, 07:07:27 PM »


AP doesn't have any either.  http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/KS_Page_0411.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2017, 07:25:19 PM »

Were there any reports on Election Day turnout (low, medium, high...?)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2017, 07:35:48 PM »

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

Yes, but Clinton's campaign had a massive early vote operation, which probably cannibalized much of their Election Day vote.  Did Thompson have anything similar going on?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2017, 07:37:49 PM »

We're reporting these results faster than either website

We're more motivated. Smiley
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2017, 07:48:58 PM »

What if Ds end up winning KS-04 and MT-AL but lose GA-06 what message would that send to the DCCC?

"Special elections are special."
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2017, 07:34:47 PM »

It's a Strange feeling waiting to see which candidate will get Moore votes.



I'm sorry.
XD

And who has the Mo-mentum?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2017, 07:42:19 PM »

There was some heavy rain in southern Alabama during the day, which might depress turnout there relative to the rest of the state.  Who would this help/hurt?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2017, 07:55:01 PM »

Pretty obvious that it will be Strange and Moore, and Moore will win the runoff.

Well, Stranger things have happened. Smiley
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2017, 08:38:20 PM »

WULFRIC PROJECTION: MOORE/STRANGE RUNOFF

We can now state with confidence that no state is more strange than Alabama. Smiley
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2017, 06:20:58 PM »

But if fairness, the scandal hadn't truly blown open until after 06.

Does anyone truly believe a +30 R district would elect a Democrat if the incumbent was involved in such a scandal?

No. It could elect Libertarian or even Constitutional party candidate (or another far rightist), but - not a Democrat...

When has that ever happened?

No Libertarian or Constitution Party candidate has been elected to Congress (House or Senate), but it's worth noting that Virgil Goode, the 2012 CP Presidential candidate, won election to the same House seat as a Democrat, then an Independent, then a Republican.

Who was the last member of a true third party elected to Congress?  This excludes independents and one-off parties like Lieberman's.  I'd guess it was Sen. James Buckley (Conservative-NY) elected in 1970, but could be wrong.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2018, 09:39:16 PM »

Polls have closed, but no results until 10 ET under state law.
Well that's a dumb law.

What's the reasoning behind it, if anyone knows?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: June 30, 2018, 03:25:35 PM »


Probably not.  According to the OP, the results can be followed at https://enrpages.sos.state.tx.us/public/jun30_329_state.htm?x=0&y=140&id=715
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2018, 07:27:16 AM »

People are reading way too much into this, imo. People are acting like whatever the swing is is disastrous for Democrats. Why are people reading so far into a completely irrelevant special election that nobody thought was competitive? Turnout was absolutely abysmal so it's not like this is an accurate sample of how Democrats will be doing this November. Compare that to a race like AZ-08, which had good turnout and actual media attention. This is some Peak Atlas s*it right here, acting like the blue wave is dead because the Dems barely swung a low turnout, low media attention special in Texas.

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2018, 12:50:51 PM »

I never said this election indicated a disaster for Democrats.  I merely pointed out there was no 6 point swing. I also stated the voter enthusiasm was about the same for both parties..   I stated some reasons why this might be so.  There may be other reasons.

For now the election in Texas 27 stands alone.  It is a anomaly.  To be a harbinger it must be confirmed.  

I am late posting this, as I went to church.


Those are fair statements.  As you said, it's just one data point among others.  There have been Congressional specials this cycle with some small swings, some large ones (all toward the Democrats).  There's naturally going to be some variation in results among the entire set of such elections.  The point is that the final margin in November is likely to be closer to the average of these results, rather than to an extreme on either end.

This is the list of results compiled by Harry Enten (who, incidentally, defines swing as the change from the district's partisan lean):



Source: https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1013418919363858433

(No, I don't think the final margin in November will be D+16.  As I've said elsewhere, I think this is a reasonable upper bound on the likely Democratic margin, with the GCB average as a reasonable lower bound. )
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2018, 01:10:22 PM »

I never said this election indicated a disaster for Democrats.  I merely pointed out there was no 6 point swing. I also stated the voter enthusiasm was about the same for both parties..   I stated some reasons why this might be so.  There may be other reasons.

For now the election in Texas 27 stands alone.  It is a anomaly.  To be a harbinger it must be confirmed.  

I am late posting this, as I went to church.


Those are fair statements.  As you said, it's just one data point among others.  There have been Congressional specials this cycle with some small swings, some large ones (all toward the Democrats).  There's naturally going to be some variation in results among the entire set of such elections.  The point is that the final margin in November is likely to be closer to the average of these results, rather than to an extreme on either end.

This is the list of results compiled by Harry Enten (who, incidentally, defines swing as the change from the district's partisan lean):



Source: https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1013418919363858433

(No, I don't think the final margin in November will be D+16.  As I've said elsewhere, I think this is a reasonable upper bound on the likely Democratic margin, with the GCB average as a reasonable lower bound. )
Before 2006 the special election swing average was like D+18, and resulted in a D+7 house vote. The reason that special election swing is correlated to final swing but not particularly predictive of the final margin is that it is a great measure of enthusiasm, but neglects two key factors. First, that there is an incumbent running in most districts (which in and of itself is worth about five points) and second that more people show up to vote in a midterm than just the motivated portion of your base, thus diluting the influence of an enthusiasm gap (though obviously not erasing it in any way).

Based on the special election performance I think a prediction of D+16 is very silly, even as a ‘ceiling’. There’s no reason to think Democrats will even come close to that unless they have a great campaign cycle and the generic ballot lead opens up a lot wider. Unfortunately such a swing would be impossible to see in special election results because there is only one more prior to November.

Perhaps I should have called the average special swing an "absolute" ceiling.  I do expect the final result to be between that and the GCB average, but much closer to the latter.  For example, with today's GCB average of D+7 and the D+16 average special swing, I'd guess that the November margin is on the order of D+9 or 10.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2018, 08:17:15 PM »


That is not a correct conclusion from the data.  Nobody knows who those votes were cast for until they are counted.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #16 on: July 18, 2018, 08:13:14 PM »

I managed to track down the Absentee Vote returns for 6 of the 7 counties in OH-12, current as of close of business yesterday. Pretty stark numbers here:



The numbers on the right are Absentee returns from the 2016 General Election in the 4 counties where I could find them for the same period that absentee balloting has been open as of yesterday.

Edit: Fixed cropping.
Wait, who is siphoning almost 20% of the vote? The numbers dont add up.

I swear to god if its the Green candidate.....

The percentages for the four-county '18 totals are goofy.  513/1566 is more like 33%, not 21%, and 96/1566 is about 6%, not 3.4%.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: July 20, 2018, 11:31:14 AM »

Here's a vote of appreciation for Ebsy for providing these ballot total updates.
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