2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Hearing of a poll in #OH15 showing Dem in a surprisingly close race against NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers (R). Makes sense: @CookPolitical PVI is only R+7 & district includes Athens & Columbus burbs.

2:47 PM - 14 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/941394177048408069

Suburban curbstomping incoming.

A 'burbstomping.

Congratulations, I think you've added a new one to the lexicon.

[GeorgiaModerate]

WSJ/NBC

D: 50 (+11)
R: 39

Their previous poll in October was D+7.  They also find an intensity gap:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Dem internal poll has Ed Royce in CA-39 up 48-44. https://www.scribd.com/document/367450908/CA-39-Tulchin-Research-for-Gil-Cisneros-Nov-2017

I'm sure they'd settle for 52.

[GeorgiaModerate]

An example of Democratic fundraising and engagement from this year's Virginia House of Delegates election:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

A year is a long time in politics

Very true, but it's better to be the party on the long end of that advantage.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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Mean and median are both D+14.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Realistically, what does the generic ballot need to be at for the Dems to take the House?

Democrats tend to over-poll due to the demographic change of the electorate from presidential to midterm. Older, wealthier, more educated and white people are overrepresented compared to presidential elections. In 2006, the final RCP average for the GCB polls was 11.5 margin and Democrats ended up with an 8 point margin. However, one thing to keep in mind is that there has been a big shift of white college graduates to Democrats since then, and that demographic has also grown more, so it could make the gap smaller. This is compounded for Republicans as their party has shifted more towards a base of white working class voters, who have notably worse turnout rates than college grads.

I'd say, maybe to be safe, subtract 2.5 points from their GCB average. It could be larger, but I'm not convinced yet it will be the same as 2006.

Democrats need around 7 - 8 to win the House, so the GCB polling average will probably need to settle at 10 points or so.

I think 7/8 is the widely-agreed upon magic number for the House. What do you think about the Senate generic ballot though, or is that too many unique races with individually strong senators to accurately be gauged by the GCB? I would guess that incumbent senators (from both parties) would tend to do at least a little bit better than the GCB numbers for their party would suggest, unless a Senator is just horribly despised.

The problem with the generic ballot for Senate is that it's a nationwide poll, but there aren't races in every state.  Also, there are relatively few of them; a huge generic advantage in California could dominate the national results, but it only affects one seat.

I believe that some past studies have shown that incumbent senators of the non-WH party are very unlikely to lose in midterms.  Not sure about the WH party.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What more can we expect from Rain in Nova?

D+18 is only if the entire USA is sunny. Obviously that won't be the case.

Issa and Rohrabacher are doomed, then.  It never rains in Southern California.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harry Enten's thoughts:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting. New Mclaughlin poll has Democrats narrowly leading the generic ballot 45-44.

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2017/12/20/december-national-survey-results/

For anyone not knowing who these clowns are, they are the polling company that showed Cantor crushing Bratt by 40 in the primary a few days before he lost by 20.

They have an insanely bad track record.  See for example https://storify.com/DKElections/mclaughlin-and-associates-terrible-2012-polling.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We can't really know if Republicans overperform their numbers because two Republican president midterms are missing from this chart: 1990 and 2002. The data are insufficient to reach such a conclusion.

Right.  The chart needs to be expanded to show which party controlled the WH at the time.  Harry Enten has written that when you control for the WH party, the generic ballot is highly correlated with the actual result.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New article by 538's Harry Enten: The Democrats' Wave Could Turn Into a Flood

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Considering what a D advantage of 12 points (the current 538 average) or 18 points (the recent CNN poll) could do:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats cross 50% in the 538 tracker for the first time: what a glorious Christmas gift!

Looks like the new Ipsos/Reuters poll pushed it over the top: D 47, R 33 (D+14).  Their previous poll was 43/32 (D+11).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Dec 21-25, 1208 RV

D 46
R 31

Their previous poll was the same D+15 margin, but 47/32.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Dec 24-26, 1500 adults

D 44 (nc)
R 36 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov poll: (December 24-26th)

GOP: 36% (+1)!!!
Dems: 44% (-)

Big. Beautiful. Tax Reform BUMP!!

Look back a few posts.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Bob Young not running in MI-SEN:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

the generic ballot is tighening, according to 538. I expected some reversion to the mean, but how far will it go? Last year reversion-to-the-mean type tightenings ended with around D+8. Will D+12 (where it is now) or D+10 be the new normal?

It's tightening for the same reason Trump's numbers improved: holidays.

How long does a "holiday bump" typically last?

Under normal circumstances I'd say maybe mid-January, but as fast as the news cycle moves with Trump, it will probably be shorter.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump is approving offshore drilling in Florida and local R's are freaking out this will cause a massive backlash in 2018 https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2018/01/04/trump-drilling-coasts-pacific-atlantic-florida-324025?lo=ap_e1&__twitter_impression=true

South Florida and Orange county congressmen must be thrilled. That will certainly dampen Democratic enthusiasm.

Not to mention the new DOJ policy on marijuana, which is going to have the same effect in Colorado and the other legal pot states.  You've got to hand it to this administration; that's an impressive number of states to antagonize in a single day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

85 or more is wildly optimistic (or pessimistic depending on your viewpoint).  I wonder if someone is manipulating that market.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not looking too hot for the GOP right now on how many seats will they lose in the House:

What market is this?

https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/79

85 or more is wildly optimistic (or pessimistic depending on your viewpoint).  I wonder if someone is manipulating that market.

It's been at 85 + since the market was established. I don't think 70+ is unrealistic at all given a combination of factors

Since this is referring to "turnover", does that include retirements?

Yes. Dunno why this is being hyped so much.

Based on the way it's described ("how many seats will they lose in the House") I assumed it was net loss of seats. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not looking too hot for the GOP right now on how many seats will they lose in the House:

What market is this?

https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/79

85 or more is wildly optimistic (or pessimistic depending on your viewpoint).  I wonder if someone is manipulating that market.

It's been at 85 + since the market was established. I don't think 70+ is unrealistic at all given a combination of factors

Since this is referring to "turnover", does that include retirements?

Yes. Dunno why this is being hyped so much.

Based on the way it's described ("how many seats will they lose in the House") I assumed it was net loss of seats. 

Where does it say that?

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Mondale described it that way when he posted it:

Not looking too hot for the GOP right now on how many seats will they lose in the House:

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyone else kinda annoyed by Russian moderates who love "mavericks" trying to preach to everyone else about American politics

Yes, I have on my ignore list. He says some pretty awful stuff and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he’s being paid to troll online on sites like this.

You judge by yourself. Alas, i am not paid even a cent. And i would only welcome being on ignore list of people like you. For me it's a badge of honor....

I'll make your day, then.

[GeorgiaModerate]

WI-06: Dan Kohl raised $329K in Q4, ends the year with $600K cash on hand.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/08/glenn-grotherman-challenger-dan-kohl-reports-raising-329-000-fourth-quarter/1013957001/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Politico/Morning Consult, Jan 4-5, 1988 RV (change from Dec 14-18)

D 44 (nc)
R 36 (+2)