I really do think that Trump would win if he had the same ground game that he had in 2020 but that he will lose because he is too distracted on the criminal trials. Even if a conviction does not move any votes, not having 'Black Voices for Trump' backing him means the least likely Black voters that say they support him will not actually show up at the polls (and you could say likewise for other groups unless there is some micro-targeting game for conservative Hispanics that I have not seen any coverage of).
I've mentioned this before, but in addition to the distraction of his trials, there seems to be an element of laziness in his campaign, as if they feel "entitled" to win and have it already in the bag. Ironically, the closest recent equivalent in that sense is probably Hillary in 2016.
