swing states 2008?

[Erc]

Ridiculously Democratic States (Kerry beats his national perecentage of the Bush-Kerry vote by 10+ points): 53 EVs

DC
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Vermont
New York

Solid Dem States (+5):  114--total of 167

Maryland
Connecticut
California
Illinois
Hawaii
Maine (not counting CD2)
Delaware
Washington

Barring a landslide, these states will be going Democrat.


Ridiculous Republican States (+10):  45 EV's
Utah
Wyoming
Idaho
Nebraska
Oklahoma
North Dakota
Alaska
Kansas
Alabama

Solid Republican States (+5)  108 EV's

Texas
South Dakota
Indiana
Montana
Mississippi
Kentucky
South Carolina
Georgia
Louisiana
Tennessee

For a total of 153 EV's.

I can say with certainty that each and every one of those states will not switch sides for the next election.


Heavily Lean Democrat (+3):  (49 EV's)

New Jersey
Oregon
Minnesota
Michigan

For a total of 216.


Heavily Lean Republican (+3): 

West Virginia
North Carolina
Arizona
Arkansas

For a total of 189.


Remember, of course, that this assumes a dead-even race.  If the Republican is ahead (as he was this time around), leaning states (like MN & MI) may seem in reach, while tossups (like MO & VA) may seem solid.


So this little method leaves as tossups (in order of most to least tossup):

Nevada
Ohio
New Mexico
Iowa
Florida
Colorado
Wisconsin
Missouri
New Hampshire
Virginia
Pennsylvania

and MECD somewhere.  But I have no data on it, so I can't make a judgment.



Disclaimer:  I don't actually believe VA is a swing state.

[Erc]

Well, if Hillary runs against a conservative, then she has a good shot of taking the 167 core Democratic votes.

If it's Guiliani v. Hillary...well, the Dem base will be energized while the Republican base might not be...but even then there's no way Hillary would come close to a victory.


Jeb v. Hillary, folks...

Jeb v. Hillary...