The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Erc]

I've been sifting through twitter about the results of today's conventions.

GA-7: a Cruz-Rubio alliance elects 2 Cruz supporters as Trump's delegates, Rubio's delegate is the convention chairman.

GA-11: Cruz- 2 Uncommited- 1 GA-6: Cruz- 2 Trump- 1

GA-9: 3 Not Trump delegates.

SC-1: 3 Cruz supporters elected as Trump's delegates.

OK-1: Cruz sweep of all 3 delegates, including a delegate for Rubio which will be unbound on the first vote.

KS-1 may have been a Cruz sweep.

Thanks for these tips!

[Erc]

With Cynthia Lummis failing to get elected as a delegate in Wyoming, that count of 181 unbound delegates on the first ballot seems pretty secure.

Possible changes to that:
1) Credentials fight in Virgin Islands (-4)
2) Dispute over Alaska binding (+5)
3) Uncommitted delegates winning in West Virginia due to arcane rules (+a few, possibly)
4) Kasich winning some surprise delegates in Indiana

[Erc]

Cruz won 11/12 delegates and alternates at play in Oklahoma this weekend.

Unfortunately for him, the one slot they lost was a Rubio delegate slot that went to a Trump supporter, Daren Ward.  That's one of the two delegates at play this weekend in Oklahoma whose vote matters on the first ballot.

[Erc]

I just found this spreadsheet while trying to update my own.  Amazing work.  You found quite a few that I could not.  May I return the favor by trying to fill in a few of your blanks as well?

--snip--

Thanks for the tips! Added a bunch of them to the spreadsheet.

[Erc]

So is Trump actually losing delegates compared to how many we already have projected for him, or is Cruz just picking up more and more that were previously uncommitted?

What's mainly happening is that Cruz is winning the personal loyalty of delegates who are already legally bound (to him or someone else).  This doesn't matter for the first ballot, but does for the second, when most delegates are released from their binding commitments based on the primary.

There are a few delegates at stake in this process that are actually unbound on the first ballot (Rubio's delegates in Oklahoma, for example); Cruz is winning most of these, but Trump actually did manage to pick one up on Saturday.

Calendar for Unbound Delegate Selection:

April 23: MN-3 [2 delegates], MN-4 [2], MN-6 [1] Conventions.
April 26: Pennsylvania Primary [54].
April 30: MN-5 [2], MN-7 [1], MN-8 [1] Conventions.
May 7: MN-1 [1], MN-2 [1] Conventions.
May 14: Oklahoma State Convention [10].
May 21: Minnesota State Convention [6], Vermont State Convention [8].

I will be a delegate at the MN-5 convention, so I'll have some first-hand reporting from there in a couple weeks.

[Erc]

The Canegata-Yob dispute turned violent today, with one of the non-Yob delegates that Canegata threw out with the bathwater being apparently assaulted by Canegata himself.

According to the VI GOP Vice chair, Gwendolyn Brady was “slammed against the wall and thrown to the floor because she objected to the Gestapo-like tactics of the V.I. Chairman John Canegata.”  Canegata, of course, claims a different sequence of events, but doesn't deny that there was a "scuffle."

Oh, and this happened on a gun range, with Canegata reportedly walking around carrying a firearm and using an ammunition cartridge as a gavel.

[Erc]

New York Results

Trump wins the delegate count 90-5.  This is obviously a very good night for him, and ahead of my projections by 6 delegates.  If the result is indicative of what can happen next week, and Trump can win Connecticut with more than 50% of the vote, the path to a first ballot victory is looking a lot easier; a win in Indiana would essentially seal the deal.

On the Democratic side, Hillary comes out with a +31 net gain in delegates.  Sanders' already small path to a victory in pledged delegates gets even slimmer.  He now needs to essentially sweep the remaining 6-delegate districts by large margins (58.3% of the two-way vote, to win them 4-2).  This, to put it mildly, seems impossible, barring the usual death/indictment caveats.

[Erc]

Basically: my earlier predictions had been bullish for Kasich in Fairfield.  The results out of Westchester suggest that may have been far too bullish, and we should take seriously the polls that show Trump at 50% in Connecticut.

I would love to see a town-by-town breakdown of the results in Westchester, though.

I was not trying to imply that the results last night meant anything for the race in Indiana; I was merely stating that if Trump has a good night next Tuesday (the largest factor in which is a sweep in Connecticut), he needs fewer delegates in the later contests to reach 1237.  If he were to win in Indiana (which I still view as unlikely), that would be enough, assuming he doesn't lose California.

[Erc]

Basically: my earlier predictions had been bullish for Kasich in Fairfield.  The results out of Westchester suggest that may have been far too bullish, and we should take seriously the polls that show Trump at 50% in Connecticut.

I would love to see a town-by-town breakdown of the results in Westchester, though.

I was not trying to imply that the results last night meant anything for the race in Indiana; I was merely stating that if Trump has a good night next Tuesday (the largest factor in which is a sweep in Connecticut), he needs fewer delegates in the later contests to reach 1237.  If he were to win in Indiana (which I still view as unlikely), that would be enough, assuming he doesn't lose California.

I wouldn't lose hope for Kasich in Fairfield just yet. Based on all the Republicans I know in the county, they seem exactly like Kasich-type supporters. Then again, that's probably influenced more for me by places like Greenwich than Bridgeport.

Trump still got a majority in Pelham Manor, which would seem like prime Kasich territory.  Fairfield is presumably somewhat richer and WASPier, but probably not enough to make a difference unless one attributes Trump's overperformance to a home state effect.

[Erc]

Basically: my earlier predictions had been bullish for Kasich in Fairfield.  The results out of Westchester suggest that may have been far too bullish, and we should take seriously the polls that show Trump at 50% in Connecticut.

I would love to see a town-by-town breakdown of the results in Westchester, though.

I was not trying to imply that the results last night meant anything for the race in Indiana; I was merely stating that if Trump has a good night next Tuesday (the largest factor in which is a sweep in Connecticut), he needs fewer delegates in the later contests to reach 1237.  If he were to win in Indiana (which I still view as unlikely), that would be enough, assuming he doesn't lose California.

Here is a breakdown by CD in Westchester. It's pretty uniform. Notice the Carson thing, which was what pushed up Trump from 50% in Westchester to 55%, since the Carson votes were voided. Also notice how pathetically low the Pub turnout was.

Why on earth was the Carson vote so high?  Pure protest votes?  Real shame his votes got voided, would have cost Trump a few delegates.

[Erc]

Apparently not (though I was wrong about New York).  "Carson suspended his campaign but didn't formally notify [CT SoS] Merrill's office of his withdrawal," according to the AP.

Bush, Rubio, etc. will not be on the ballot.

[Erc]

Erc are you running to be a national delegate at your district's convention?

I thought about it, but decided against it.  Would be logistically tough for me, I don't have especially long standing in the GOP here, and, well, I wouldn't win.

[Erc]

If Trump gets >150 in CA, does IN still matter for him?

Not really, though it would remove some residual uncertainty as it would put him over the top among pledged delegates alone most likely.

[Erc]

Tomorrow is Saturday (aka Convention Day).  Listing GOP contests here only:

We've got state conventions in Kentucky (25 delegates), Maine (20), and Utah (37).  I'd expect Cruz to do well in Maine and Utah, but Kentucky is less clear; Cruz has generally lost at the CD level to more generic Uncommitted slates.

We also have a convention in SC-6 (3 delegates) and the caucus in FL-11 (3 delegates).

Most importantly for the first ballot, we have the first of Minnesota's District Conventions, in CDs 3, 4, and 6, picking 3 delegates each.  Five of them (2 in 3 & 4, and 1 in 6) are Rubio delegates, who will be unbound on the first ballot barring rules changes.  I've been assuming that Cruz will sweep in Minnesota; we'll see this weekend whether such an assumption is justified.

[Erc]

In GA-14, Leanne DeFoor said on a 2/18 post that she is a Cruz supporter and former Rand Paul supporter (facebook.com/UWG-College-Republicans-157889257652107)

In OK-4 I believe Steve Byas is supporting Ted Cruz as shown throughout his Facebook (facebook.com/steve.byas)

In NC-4 the delegates are Ted Hicks, Rod Chaney and Larry Beckler. Ted (Theodore) Hicks is part of Cruz's leadership team (facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.1733386116920299&type=3&l=6fda94779b)

Thanks for the tips!

[Erc]

Thanks again for the help guys.  Travelling this weekend, so haven't been able to follow the weekend's conventions as closely as I would have otherwise.

[Erc]

Pennsylvania's Loophole Delegates: A Viewer's Guide

In Pennsylvania, 17 delegates will go to the statewide winner (presumably Trump), while the other 54 are directly elected on the ballot.  Delegate candidates' presidential preference is not listed on the ballot, and any delegates elected will be completely unbound on the first and any subsequent ballots.

Of course, some have expressed their preference to the media, or are being pushed by a presidential campaign, or claim they are voting for the winner of their district.  In preparation for tonight's results, here's a quick and abridged rundown of the delegate candidates.  I'm not listing all 162 candidates, just the top three by their order on the ballot, plus any on Trump/Cruz/Kasich slates, plus any particularly notable other delegates.

Note that any elected office these folks hold is not listed on the ballot, either.

1st District
[1] Christopher M Vogler - Uncommitted but will consider District Winner
[2] Seth Kauffer - strongly considering District Winner / Trump
[3] Dave Hackett - District Winner

These three are running unopposed, the only question is who wins the district.

2nd District
[1] Calvin Tucker - Uncommitted, considering electability & "last man standing"
[2] Aaron Cohen - Uncommitted
[3] Elizabeth Havey - District Winner
[4] Aldridk Gessa - Cruz, on Cruz slate

These are the only candidates.

3rd District
[1] Robert J Yates - Uncommitted, "strongly impressed by Kasich", on Kasich PAC and Cruz slates
[2] Michele Mustello - Uncommitted, on Kasich slate
[3] Lynne Ryan - District Winner, supports Trump, on Trump slate
[4] State Rep. Brian Ellis - District Winner
[7] State Rep. Daryl Metcalfe - Uncommitted, "I will support the candidate that I believe will be the most consistent with and represent the conservative values that I have a record of supporting and fighting for."
[8] Fmr. US Rep. Phil English - on Kasich PAC slate
[9] Jim Keffalas - Trump, on Trump slate
[11] Dan Vete - Trump, on Trump slate

4th District
[1] State Rep. Greg Rothman - District Winner
[2] Charlie Gerow - District Winner - "In a contested convention, will seek the candidate who can best defeat Hillary Clinton."
[3] Marilyn S Gillispie - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[6] State Rep. Stan Saylor - Uncommitted, variously Rubio/District Winner/Leans Cruz/York County Winner
[10] Matthew Jansen - Trump, on Trump slate
[14] Marc A Scaringi - Trump, on Trump slate
[15] Joe Sacco - Trump, on Trump slate

5th District
[1] Joyce C Haas - District Winner
[2] Scott Schreffler - District Winner
[3] Rick Chura - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[4] Lyle Stewart - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[6] James Klein - Trump, on Trump slate
[7] Ash Khare - District Winner, on Trump slate
[8] Barry Kroeker - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[9] C Arnold McClure - Trump, on Trump slate

6th District
[1] Mary Elizabeth Wert - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] Larry E Stohler - Statewide Winner
[3] Doug Hager - District Winner
[4] US Rep. Ryan Costello - District Winner
[5] Wayne Buckwalter - Trump, on Trump slate
[6] Robert Wert - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[8] Vicki Lightcap - Trump, on Trump slate

7th District
[1] Michael Puppio - District Winner
[2] Ralph E Wike III - Trump, on Trump slate
[3] Robert J Willert - District Winner
[5] Jan C Ting - Trump, on Trump slate

8th District
[1] Barry Casper - District Winner, supports Trump, on Trump slate
[2] Deborah Evangelou - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[3] Jim Worthington - Trump, on Trump slate
[4] State Rep. Gene DiGirolamo - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate
[5] Sean Shute - District Winner, on Trump slate
[6] State Rep. Marguerite Quinn - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate
[7] Robert G Loughery - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate

These are the only candidates.

9th District
[1] Lois Kaneshiki - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] US Rep. Bill Shuster - Uncommitted
[3] Debbie Taylor - leaning Trump, on Trump slate
[4] State Rep. Judy Ward - District Winner
[5] Cody Raymond Knotts - Trump, on Trump slate
[6] David Show - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[8] Joseph Lamantia - Trump, on Trump slate

10th District
[1] Ryan Belz - Trump
[2] Nancy Schrader - District Winner, unless it's Trump; Lean Kasich.
[3] Krystle Bristol - District Winner
[6] Carol D Sides - Trump, on Trump slate
[7] Charles Brewer - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[9] Mark F Holt - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[10] State Rep. Tina Pickett - District Winner, on Trump slate
[12] State Sen. Mario Scavello - District Winner, on Trump slate

Cruz is also encouraging a write-in campaign for Elizabeth Greenaway, a Cruz supporter in the 10th District.

11th District
[1] Dan Mosel - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] Philip G Bear - Cruz
[3] Richard P Adams - Cruz
[4] Rick Morelli - Trump, on Trump slate
[5] Lowman Henry - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[6] State Rep. Susan C "Sue" Helm - District Winner
[8] David McElwee - Trump, on Trump slate
[10] Fmr. US Rep. Don Sherwood - Uncommitted, anti-Trump
[11] Carol H Drewniak - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[14] Andrew Shecktor - Trump, on Trump slate

12th District
[1] Bruce Keeler - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] Dave Majernik - District Winner
[3] Jill Cooper - District Winner
[5] Jeff Steigerwalt - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[9] James Vasilko - Trump, on Trump slate
[10] Mike McMullen - District Winner, supports Trump (is not Admiral Mike Mullen)
[11] Joseph Matthew Sernell - Trump, on Trump slate
[14] Monica Morrill - Trump, on Trump slate
[15] Larry Borland - Cruz, on Cruz slate

13th District
[1] Alan Apt - District Winner
[2] Shannon Oscar - District Winner, on Kasich PAC slate
[3] Gilbert Cox - District Winner, on Trump slate
[5] Lauren E Casper - District Winner, on Trump slate
[6] Tom Ellis - District Winner, on Trump slate

14th District
[1] Mary Ann Meloy - Uncommitted
[2] Cameron S Linton - Kasich
[3] Mike Devanney - Uncommitted

These three are running unopposed.

15th District
[1] Scott Uehlinger - District Winner, on Trump slate
[2] Robert E Smith Jr - Cruz
[3] John K Reber Sr - Trump, on Trump slate
[4] Mark S Hoffman - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[5] Patrick Kerwin - Trump, on Trump slate
[6] Rep. Ryan E Mackenzie - District Winner
[8] Dean N Browning - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[10] Christian Y Leinbach - Cruz, on Cruz slate

16th District
[1] David M Dumeyer - District Winner
[2] Gordon Denlinger - Uncommitted
[3] Douglas W Brubaker - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[4] Mark Lemon - Trump, on Trump slate

17th District
[1] Robert E Ames - District Winner
[2] T Lynnette Villano - Trump, on Trump slate
[3] Ron Boltz - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[7] Gloria Lee Snover - District Winner, supports Trump, on Trump slate
[9] Carolyn L Bonkowski - Trump, on Trump slate

Cruz is encouraging a write-in campaign for Cruz supporter Joel Underwood.

18th District
[1] Justin DePlato - Trump, on Trump slate
[2] Scott E Avolio - District Winner
[3] Al Quaye - Cruz
[6] John Petrarca - Trump, on Trump slate
[7] State Rep. Rick Saccone - District Winner
[9] Sue Means - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[10] Jim Means - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[11] Thomas J Uram - Trump, on Trump slate

[Erc]

Trump seems to have done a better job organizing these delegates than I expected given his campaign's history.

Yeah, he's definitely looking better on this list than he did a month ago.

It's aided by the fact that Trump expects to win the state and most CDs, so District Winner and Statewide Winner delegates are mostly Trump delegates as well.

In fact, this has caused some consternation where long-committed but little-known Trump delegates have been passed over in favor of better-known folks.  Whether this causes some vote-splitting (or whether the latter category changes their minds) is yet to be determined.

[Erc]

Leaders so far (71.61% reporting, 11:15 PM EST)

1st District
[1] Christopher M Vogler - Uncommitted but will consider District Winner
[2] Seth Kauffer - Uncommitted, strongly considering District Winner / Trump
[3] Dave Hackett - District Winner

These three are running unopposed, the only question is who wins the district.

2nd District
[1] Calvin Tucker - Uncommitted, considering electability & "last man standing"
[2] Aaron Cohen - Uncommitted
[3] Elizabeth Havey - District Winner
[4] Aldridk Gessa - Cruz, on Cruz slate

These are the only candidates.

3rd District
[1] Robert J Yates - Uncommitted, "strongly impressed by Kasich", on Kasich PAC and Cruz slates
[2] Michele Mustello - Uncommitted, on Kasich slate
[3] Lynne Ryan - District Winner, supports Trump, on Trump slate
[4] State Rep. Brian Ellis - District Winner
[7] State Rep. Daryl Metcalfe - Uncommitted, "I will support the candidate that I believe will be the most consistent with and represent the conservative values that I have a record of supporting and fighting for."
[8] Fmr. US Rep. Phil English - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate
[9] Jim Keffalas - Trump, on Trump slate
[11] Dan Vete - Trump, on Trump slate

4th District
[1] State Rep. Greg Rothman - District Winner
[2] Charlie Gerow - District Winner - "In a contested convention, will seek the candidate who can best defeat Hillary Clinton."
[3] Marilyn S Gillispie - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[6] State Rep. Stan Saylor - Uncommitted, variously Rubio/District Winner/Leans Cruz/York County Winner
[10] Matthew Jansen - Trump, on Trump slate
[14] Marc A Scaringi - Trump, on Trump slate
[15] Joe Sacco - Trump, on Trump slate

5th District
[1] Joyce C Haas - District Winner
[2] Scott Schreffler - District Winner
[3] Rick Chura - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[4] Lyle Stewart - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[6] James Klein - Trump, on Trump slate
[7] Ash Khare - District Winner, on Trump slate
[8] Barry Kroeker - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[9] C Arnold McClure - Trump, on Trump slate

6th District
[1] Mary Elizabeth Wert - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] Larry E Stohler - Statewide Winner
[3] Doug Hager - District Winner
[4] US Rep. Ryan Costello - District Winner
[5] Wayne Buckwalter - Trump, on Trump slate
[6] Robert Wert - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[8] Vicki Lightcap - Trump, on Trump slate

7th District
[1] Michael Puppio - District Winner
[2] Ralph E Wike III - Trump, on Trump slate
[3] Robert J Willert - District Winner
[4] Joan Miller - District Winner
[5] Jan C Ting - Trump, on Trump slate

8th District
[1] Barry Casper - District Winner, supports Trump, on Trump slate
[2] Deborah Evangelou - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[3] Jim Worthington - Trump, on Trump slate
[4] State Rep. Gene DiGirolamo - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate
[5] Sean Shute - District Winner, on Trump slate
[6] State Rep. Marguerite Quinn - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate
[7] Robert G Loughery - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate

These are the only candidates.

9th District
[1] Lois Kaneshiki - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] US Rep. Bill Shuster - Uncommitted
[3] Debbie Taylor - leaning Trump, on Trump slate
[4] State Rep. Judy Ward - District Winner
[5] Cody Raymond Knotts - Trump, on Trump slate
[6] David Show - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[8] Joseph Lamantia - Trump, on Trump slate

10th District
[1] Ryan Belz - Trump
[2] Nancy Schrader - District Winner, unless it's Trump; Lean Kasich.
[3] Krystle Bristol - District Winner
[6] Carol D Sides - Trump, on Trump slate
[7] Charles Brewer - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[9] Mark F Holt - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[10] State Rep. Tina Pickett - District Winner, on Trump slate
[12] State Sen. Mario Scavello - District Winner, on Trump slate

Cruz is also encouraging a write-in campaign for Elizabeth Greenaway, a Cruz supporter in the 10th District.

11th District
[1] Dan Mosel - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] Philip G Bear - Cruz
[3] Richard P Adams - Cruz
[4] Rick Morelli - Trump, on Trump slate
[5] Lowman Henry - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[6] State Rep. Susan C "Sue" Helm - District Winner
[8] David McElwee - Trump, on Trump slate
[10] Fmr. US Rep. Don Sherwood - Uncommitted, anti-Trump
[11] Carol H Drewniak - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[14] Andrew Shecktor - Trump, on Trump slate

12th District
[1] Bruce Keeler - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] Dave Majernik - District Winner
[3] Jill Cooper - District Winner
[5] Jeff Steigerwalt - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[9] James Vasilko - Trump, on Trump slate
[10] Mike McMullen - District Winner, supports Trump (is not Admiral Mike Mullen)
[11] Joseph Matthew Sernell - Trump, on Trump slate
[14] Monica Morrill - Trump, on Trump slate
[15] Larry Borland - Cruz, on Cruz slate

13th District
[1] Alan Apt - District Winner
[2] Shannon Oscar - District Winner, on Kasich PAC slate
[3] Gilbert Cox - District Winner, on Trump slate
[5] Lauren E Casper - District Winner, on Trump slate
[6] Tom Ellis - District Winner, on Trump slate

14th District
[1] Mary Ann Meloy - Uncommitted
[2] Cameron S Linton - Kasich
[3] Mike Devanney - Uncommitted

These three are running unopposed.

15th District
[1] Scott Uehlinger - District Winner, on Trump slate
[2] Robert E Smith Jr - Cruz
[3] John K Reber Sr - Trump, on Trump slate
[4] Mark S Hoffman - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[5] Patrick Kerwin - Trump, on Trump slate
[6] Rep. Ryan E Mackenzie - District Winner
[8] Dean N Browning - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[9] William L Heydt - District Winner
[10] Christian Y Leinbach - Cruz, on Cruz slate

16th District
[1] David M Dumeyer - District Winner
[2] Gordon Denlinger - Uncommitted
[3] Douglas W Brubaker - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[4] Mark Lemon - Trump, on Trump slate

17th District
[1] Robert E Ames - District Winner
[2] T Lynnette Villano - Trump, on Trump slate
[3] Ron Boltz - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[7] Gloria Lee Snover - District Winner, supports Trump, on Trump slate
[9] Carolyn L Bonkowski - Trump, on Trump slate

Cruz is encouraging a write-in campaign for Cruz supporter Joel Underwood.

18th District
[1] Justin DePlato - Trump, on Trump slate
[2] Scott E Avolio - District Winner
[3] Al Quaye - Cruz
[6] John Petrarca - Trump, on Trump slate
[7] State Rep. Rick Saccone - District Winner
[9] Sue Means - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[10] Jim Means - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[11] Thomas J Uram - Trump, on Trump slate

Totals:
Trump: 21
District Winner: 18
Uncommitted: 11
Cruz: 3
Kasich: 1

[Erc]

PA TL;DR:

Trump: 20
District Winner: 18
Uncommitted: 12
Cruz: 3
Kasich: 1

Of those "District Winners," Trump will obviously win most of them; PA-7 seems the one he's most likely to lose at the moment.

[Erc]

The bottom line is that a loss in Indiana would be the end for anti-Trump forces

I said a while back that Trump needed to do 2 of 4 things in order to win the nomination.  With a northeast sweep in the bag, and a stellar performance in PA, it's now down to 1 of 3 things:

1) Win Indiana
2) Win Montana
3) Win California by a large margin (115+ delegates)

Even if he fails to do all of these, he can still win on the first ballot by convincing enough unpledged delegates to vote for him.  My current projections (in which Trump fails to do all of the above) have Trump at 1225; the additional 12 delegates won't be difficult.

Honestly, Cruz now needs to win both Indiana and California (or lose the latter in a squeaker) in order to have a shot at stopping Trump.

[Erc]

The bottom line is that a loss in Indiana would be the end for anti-Trump forces

I said a while back that Trump needed to do 2 of 4 things in order to win the nomination.  With a northeast sweep in the bag, and a stellar performance in PA, it's now down to 1 of 3 things:

1) Win Indiana
2) Win Montana
3) Win California by a large margin (115+ delegates)

Even if he fails to do all of these, he can still win on the first ballot by convincing enough unpledged delegates to vote for him.  My current projections (in which Trump fails to do all of the above) have Trump at 1225; the additional 12 delegates won't be difficult.

Honestly, Cruz now needs to win both Indiana and California (or lose the latter in a squeaker) in order to have a shot at stopping Trump.

Given how demographically-driven the race has been so far, I wouldn't assume that tonight means anything for Indiana or Montana (although I expect Trump has overlooked ancestral labor Dem strength there).  But given what we have seen in a bunch of big, diverse blue states with closed primaries, the odds of Trump cracking 50% in CA and basically sweeping the delegates there have gone way up.

Are you including the publicly Trumpist PA district delegates in that 1225, or are you excluding them?

Yes, the 1225 count includes unbound delegates who have committed to Trump (or the District Winner everywhere but PA-7).  Most of these are in PA, though a few are not.

[Erc]

PA TL;DR:

Trump: 20
District Winner: 18
Uncommitted: 12
Cruz: 3
Kasich: 1

Of those "District Winners," Trump will obviously win most of them; PA-7 seems the one he's most likely to lose at the moment.

So if this holds up....of the ~180 delegates who will be unbound on the first ballot, do you have a revised estimate as to how many would likely vote for Trump on the first ballot?

Whatever he gets in PA, plus 4.  (So, around 39 total.)

Of the remainder, some could be convinced (some of the 12 remaining PA uncommitted, probably a couple in ND and LA and some insular folks); any more than around 20 gets difficult unless he's already winning the nomination.

[Erc]

With 98.78% reporting:

1st District
[3] Dave Hackett - District Winner
[1] Christopher M Vogler - Uncommitted but will consider District Winner
[2] Seth Kauffer - Uncommitted, strongly considering District Winner / Trump

2nd District
[3] Elizabeth Havey - District Winner
[1] Calvin Tucker - Uncommitted, considering electability & "last man standing"
[2] Aaron Cohen - Uncommitted

3rd District
[8] Fmr. US Rep. Phil English - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate
[3] Lynne Ryan - District Winner, supports Trump, on Trump slate
[1] Robert J Yates - Uncommitted, "strongly impressed by Kasich", on Kasich PAC and Cruz slates

4th District
[15] Joe Sacco - Trump, on Trump slate
[10] Matthew Jansen - Trump, on Trump slate
[14] Marc A Scaringi - Trump, on Trump slate

5th District
[6] James Klein - Trump, on Trump slate
[9] C Arnold McClure - Trump, on Trump slate
[7] Ash Khare - District Winner, on Trump slate

6th District
[4] US Rep. Ryan Costello - District Winner (24.73%)
[1] Mary Elizabeth Wert - Cruz, on Cruz slate (12.49%)
[5] Wayne Buckwalter - Trump, on Trump slate (12.44%)
[8] Vicki Lightcap - Trump, on Trump slate (12.10%)
[7] Michele Harris Kichline - District Winner (12.02%)

7th District
[1] Michael Puppio - District Winner
[3] Robert J Willert - District Winner
[4] Joan Miller - District Winner

8th District
[3] Jim Worthington - Trump, on Trump slate (17.94%)
[7] Robert G Loughery - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate (16.78%)
[1] Barry Casper - District Winner, supports Trump, on Trump slate (15.69%)
[4] State Rep. Gene DiGirolamo - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate (15.36%)

9th District
[2] US Rep. Bill Shuster - Uncommitted
[3] Debbie Taylor - leaning Trump, on Trump slate
[4] State Rep. Judy Ward - District Winner

10th District
[10] State Rep. Tina Pickett - District Winner, on Trump slate
[6] Carol D Sides - Trump, on Trump slate
[12] State Sen. Mario Scavello - District Winner, on Trump slate

11th District
[4] Rick Morelli - Trump, on Trump slate
[8] David McElwee - Trump, on Trump slate
[14] Andrew Shecktor - Trump, on Trump slate

12th District
[14] Monica Morrill - Trump, on Trump slate
[5] Jeff Steigerwalt - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[9] James Vasilko - Trump, on Trump slate

13th District
[6] Tom Ellis - District Winner, on Trump slate (17.64%)
[3] Gilbert Cox - District Winner, on Trump slate (15.39%)
[5] Lauren E Casper - District Winner, on Trump slate (14.49%)
[4] Pam Levy - Uncommitted (14.28%)
[2] Shannon Oscar - District Winner, on Kasich PAC slate (14.07%)
[7] Michael J McMonagle - Cruz (13.98%)

14th District
[1] Mary Ann Meloy - Uncommitted
[3] Mike Devanney - Uncommitted
[2] Cameron S Linton - Kasich


15th District
[1] Scott Uehlinger - District Winner, on Trump slate
[3] John K Reber Sr - Trump, on Trump slate
[5] Patrick Kerwin - Trump, on Trump slate

16th District

[3] Douglas W Brubaker - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] Gordon Denlinger - Uncommitted
[1] David M Dumeyer - District Winner


17th District
[2] T Lynnette Villano - Trump, on Trump slate
[9] Carolyn L Bonkowski - Trump, on Trump slate
[7] Gloria Lee Snover - District Winner, supports Trump, on Trump slate

18th District
[6] John Petrarca - Trump, on Trump slate
[1] Justin DePlato - Trump, on Trump slate
[11] Thomas J Uram - Trump, on Trump slate

Totals:
Trump: 21
District Winner: 18
Uncommitted: 11
Cruz: 3
Kasich: 1[/quote]

[Erc]

For the first time since February, Trump ends the day with a majority of the delegates from the states that have voted so far.

For the purposes of the main page, I'm awarding all the "District Winner" delegates to Trump.  If it turns out that he loses any districts when we have complete results by CD, this may change.