Erc
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,823
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« on: April 04, 2016, 11:48:42 AM » |
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Tough call here. I'm going to say Trump is the most likely individual candidate, but that Not-Trump is more likely than Trump at this point.
Recent media reports and the results out of North Dakota mean I'm not as confident about Cruz winning outright on a putative second ballot anymore. The delegate selection process seems to be benefiting the Not-Trump camp, not necessarily Cruz alone. If this does go to a second ballot, I'd anticipate way more votes for Kasich (or a potential white knight on a dark horse) than people are expecting.
In other words, roughly Trump 45%, Cruz 40%, Other 15%.
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