538 Tool/ Game: Can you get Trump to 1,237?

[Erc]

Everyone keeps talking about New York, but really Trump already has 70 delegates locked down there, so the play is for the remaining 25, at best.

Montana is far more important to this race than New York.

(Feel free to mock me mercilessly in 15 days if Trump falls below 70 delegates in New York).

[Erc]

One thing the game here underplays is that a lot of those "uncommitted" delegates are the Pennsylvania delegates, and if Trump puts in even a little effort he should get a fair number of those (~20 out of 54 PA uncommitted delegates strikes me as reasonable...start out assuming ~30 and give Trump a 10 delegate organizational penalty).

I guess the point is that if he doesn't get to 1237 in pledged delegate the race goes past June 6, though it'll likely be a done deal if he's within 20 or so.  

Pennsylvania is probably a crapshoot, but it's one in which Trump is disfavored for a variety of reasons.  First of all, who's running for delegate?  I'd expect 4 main camps: Generic Republicans who just want a ticket to Cleveland; Bush/Rubio/Other supporters; Cruz Supporters; Trump Supporters.  Only one of those camps supports Trump, and it's likely to be less than a quarter of the delegates on the ballot.  That, combined with the organizational problems of getting people to vote for your desired delegates (plus Cruz's better organization in general) leads me to believe that Trump probably won't pick up more than a handful of unbound delegates in PA even if he wins the state.

Here's my current working projection for the remaining contests, for the record.  (This leaves out the uncommitteds, of which Trump will certainly get some).

[Erc]

Are travel expenses for delegates paid by the party or something?

Sorry, was speaking figuratively.  "Their ticket punched to Cleveland," perhaps.  This does mean that the delegates from the Northern Marianas have to pay their own airfare, for example.

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MT, no. NM is another possibility. Certainly not out of reach for another 20 delegates for Trump. Trump is really not in that bad shape at the moment.

New Mexico is proportional, so it doesn't matter much delegate-wise, except on the margins.

[Erc]

I think he'll be 50 short.

Is that 125 unpledged only for the states left or is that a national total? Seems like there should be more.

It's about right for a national total if you don't release any of Rubio's delegates.  This is, of course, incorrect, but it's close enough.