Second Round of the Presidential Forever Championships (user search)
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Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« on: June 20, 2005, 05:38:28 PM »
« edited: June 20, 2005, 05:45:07 PM by Erc »

With the seeding process over, we can now proceed onto the actual meat of the game, where fortunes and candidacies will be made or broken.

The 30 prospective candidates—15 Republican and 15 Democrat—have been split up into five separate groups, each with 3 Republicans and 3 Democrats.  Each candidate will play each of the three opposing candidates twice, and the top two candidates from each party will advance.  Thus, after the end of this round, we will be down to 20 candidates.

The Five Groups:

Group A
   Gov. Michael R. Lane (R-CA) [1]   [Wildcard]
   Sen. William Goldwater (R-FL) [15]   [Dubya]
   Mr. Keystone Phil (R-PA) [6]      [Keystone Phil]
   Gov. Hugh Bartlett (D-OR) [1]   [hughento]
   Souped-Up Punching-Bag (D-DC) [15]   [our fake candidate]
   Gov. Cosmo Kramer (D-AR) [10]   [Cosmo Kramer]

Group B
   Sen. Lucas Longley (D-WA) [2]   [Gabu]
   Mr. Dan Porceddu (D-SC) [14]   [Ebowed]
   Sen. Alex Knobel (D-MD) [9]   [Akno21]
   President Paul Brunsel (R-IA) [2]   [PBrunsel]
   Mr. Jake Nichols (R-PA) [14]      [Jake]
   Mr. Bono Vox (R-NH) [7]      [Bono]   

Group C
   Sen. Chris Soult (R-PA) [3]      [supersoulty]
   Gov. Mark Ard (R-WI) [13]      [Cheesewhiz]
   Sen. Colin Wixted (R-AK) [8]   [Colin Wixted]
   Sen. John Anderson (D-LA) [3]   [Sam Spade]
   Señor Max Power (D-PA) [13]   [Max Power]
   Gov. Chris Ilikeverin (D-IN) [8]   [Ilikeverin]
   
Group D
   Mr. Alcon San Croix (D-WA) [4]   [Alcon]
   Gov. Eric Everett (D-ID) [12]      [Immy]
   Nicholas Holler (D-PA) [7]      [nini2287]
   Mr. Ernest Bunbury (R-SC) [4]   [Ernest]
   Gov. Andrew Berger (R-NY) [12]   [AndrewBerger]
   Mr. Josh Craddock (R-NC) [9]   [josh22]

Group E
   Rep. P.G. Talbott (R-NY) [5]      [Erc]
   Mayor Daniel Smith (R-WY) [11]   [DanielX]
   Sen. Scott Pettit (R-DC) [10]      [MHS2002]
   Mr. True Democrat (D-PA) [5]   [True Democrat]
   Sen. Peter Blerpiez (D-MA) [11]   [Blerpiez]
   Gov. Gustaf Lundgren (D-MN) [6]   [Gustaf]
   

The First Day of Games (all chosen at random)

Group A:
   Wildcard v. Cosmo Kramer
   Dubya v. Souped Up Punching Bag [or Ben Meyers]
   Keystone Phil v. hughento  (Completely Random...)

Group B:
   PBrunsel v. Akno21
   Jake v. Ebowed
   Bono v. Gabu

Group C:
   Supersoulty v. Sam Spade
   Cheesewhiz v. Ilikeverin [I tell ya, it's Completely Random…]
   Colin Wixted v. Max Power

Group D:
   Ernest v. nini2287
   AndrewBerger v. Alcon
   Josh22 v. Immy

Group E:
   Erc v. Blerpiez
   DanielX v. True Democrat
   MHS2002 v. Gustaf

The first of the two games will be played without dynamism, the other with.  Regionalism will be used in both cases.
Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2005, 05:45:34 PM »

   President Paul Brunsel (D-IA) [2]   [PBrunsel]

Er, I think that this mistake might make PBrunsel a little mad. Wink

PBrunsel not a Democrat?  What, next you'll be telling me Hoover wasn't a Democrat....
Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2005, 06:09:03 PM »

Group A:

Game 1:

Cosmo Kramer (D) v. Wildcard (R)

Wildcard, who managed a whopping 80% of the vote in the opening round, was heavily favored to win this match.  A popular governor from the country's most populous state, the little-known vehement populism of Gov. Cosmo Kramer was not expected to make much of a dent in Gov. Lane's expected lead.  However, much like another famous Governor of Arkansas, Kramer kept fighting on...and managed a truly impressive victory, clinching Lane's own home state and the election.

Cosmo Kramer (D-AR): 63,540,347, 51%, 303 EV
Michael R. Lane (R-CA): 59,256,612, 47%, 235 EV



(Due to a computer crash on my end I didn't get the percentages on this one).

Game 2:
The Dubya-Bag game has been postponed due to rain.


Game 3:

One of the most highly anticipated races of this round, the Keystone Phil - hughento race was a close one.  Bartlett started out with a narrow lead in the first week, but this soon evaporated, leaving the two neck and neck through the debates and up to election day.  It wasn't till 10pm that we had any idea who would probably win...and the loser's fate was not sealed until well after midnight.

By the most excruciating of margins, Gov. Bartlett was elected President with narrow majorities in both the popular and electoral votes.

Hugh Bartlett (D-OR): 50%, 62,361,924, 272 EV
Keystone Phil (R-PA): 48%, 60,533,216, 266 EV



The night started off well for Phil...he won Kentucky (which was considered a swing state by everyone involved) by a much wider margin than expected, and held onto his home state of Pennsylvania.  However, it was two excruciatingly close defeats that put a dent in his campaign: 

West Virginia, where Bartlett had had a lead, but Phil was gaining...he lost by only 3500 votes.

Mississippi, a tossup which Bartlett won by 1.8%.


Despite a surprise win in Iowa (by 6000 votes), there was no way Phil could make up for these two losses without winning California--always a long shot, as it proved when the returns came in--Phil lost by 15%.

A hard-fought battle by both sides, and one that could have easily gone either way.
Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2005, 06:37:40 PM »

Group B:

Game 1:

PBrunsel (R) v. Akno21 (D)

PBrunsel began with a commanding lead, and it looked as if he would smash Akno21 Dukakis-style (if not worse)...but then his lead started slipping...well, the map speaks for itself.

Alex Knobel (D-MD): 50%, 63,061,330, 281 EV
Paul Brunsel (R-IA): 48%, 60,076,749, 257 EV



I think I may have tipped the balance too much towards the Democrats...


Game 2:

Jake v. Ebowed

The battle of the bottom seeds...these two players did the worst of all the players against Punching Bag, Ebowed even losing California.

Unfortunately, this game turned out a lot like the rest...Jake on his way to a 45-state victory...and then he slips, and falls, and loses the election.  *sigh*   Well, he did lose the debates, and got hit with a couple scandals, but this is beginning to seem repetitive...

My congratulations to Jake on winning the popular vote solidly, however (despite losing your home state)--and on winning Vermont (!), and coming very close in Rhode Island and California.

Jake Nichols (R-PA): 50%, 62,469,779, 254 EV
Dan Porceddu (D-SC): 48%, 60,745,971, 284 EV




Game 3:

Bono v. Gabu

Gabu, the second seed for the Democrats, was favored to win this race.  Started off in the lead...and kept it.

Lucas Longley (D-WA): 54%, 67,514,087, 375 EV
Bono Vox (R-NH): 44%, 55,937,375, 163 EV

My condolences to Bono on losing his home state by 24%...but my congratulations on coming within 1.3% of winning Maryland, and winning the state of Hawaii.

Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2005, 07:35:04 PM »

Group C:  Can the Republicans win a game?

Game 1:

Supersoulty [3] v. Sam Spade [3]

Yet Another Pennsylvania Republican steps up to the plate...but can he do better than the ones which have come before him?

As the campaign began, Soult had an enormous lead...7 points in the popular vote, 424 EV in the bag...Anderson was losing his own state by 12 points, and could only really count on Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and D.C. to support him.  But, as always, he began to push back...

But, this time, it wasn't enough.  Although it looked as if he'd lose both New York and California at one point, Anderson pushed back, but was still down by over four points come November 2nd.  Still a solid performance for a candidate starting off in a horrible position...and one who lost all three debates.

Chris Soult (R-PA): 51%, 63,632,765, 294 EV
John Anderson (D-LA): 48%, 60,108,791, 244 EV



My congratulations to Sam Spade on his surprise last-minute victory in Ohio, and on his victory in Pennsylvania--neither candidate won their home state this time around.

And my heartiest congratulations to supersoulty for finally winning one for the Republicans.


Game 2:

The Highly Anticipated:
Cheesewhiz (R-WI) [13] v. Ilikeverin (D-IN) [8]

Cheesewhiz started down by two points in the popular vote, but this continued to be a competitive race throughout the season, with no clear favorite.

Ard won all three debates, but Ilikeverin remained very competitive, and managed to retain the slimmest of leads going into election day.

As the day dawned on November 2, all eyes were on the Sooner State....

Which, somehow, went for the Democrats.

Chris Ilikeverin (D-IN):  63,103,914, 50%, 275 EV
Mark Ard (R-WI): 60,730,438, 48%, 263 EV



Both candidates lost their homestates.

Game 3:

Colin Wixted (R-FL) [8] v. Max Power (D-PA) [13]

Can the Republicans manage to beat the 97-year old?


At the beginning, Wixted had a decisive lead...but then it seemed that it might go the way of all those other races, yet again.  However, by election day, it had evened out again, and although Reese probably still had the slightest of advantages, Wixted had the momentum.


But it wasn't enough.  Despite a narrow popular vote victory and a resounding win in Ohio, Reese just barely squeaked by with New Mexico and the election.

Colin Wixted (R-AK):  62,466,938, 50%, 266 EV
Max Power (D-PA):  61,005,985, 49%, 272 EV



Blair House Happy Meals are now on sale.


Democrats: 7
Republicans: 1
Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2005, 08:11:35 PM »

Group D:

Game 1:
Ernest [4] v. nini2287 [7]


Begins off dead even, Holler gains the lead, but then gets hit with a large scandal going into the final stretch.  Will the scandal be enough to propel the Republicans into the White House?  Knowing our luck, probably not.

Nicholas Holler (D-PA): 63,117,090, 50%, 277 EV
Ernest Bunbury (R-SC): 60,144,357, 48%, 261 EV



Game 2:

AndrewBerger [12] v. Alcon [4]

As expected, San Croix always had the lead...although it continued to be extremely competitive until the final week, when Alcon just pulled away, humiliating Berger in the final debate.

Alcon San Croix (D-WA): 52%, 64,714,105, 308 EV
Andrew Berger (R-WA): 47%, 58,651,231, 230 EV



Game 3:

josh22 [9] v. Immy [12]

Josh Craddock started off with a slight lead...and expanded it...but, then, around mid-October, Everett started coming back, and it was dead even for the last three weeks.

The key states:  West Virginia and New Mexico.

Craddock needed both.

He won New Mexico.

He lost West Virginia by 13,000 votes.

Eric Everett (D-ID): 49%, 62,034,577, 272 EV
Josh Craddock (R-NC): 49%, 61,233,502, 266 EV

Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #6 on: June 20, 2005, 08:30:29 PM »

Yeah...

The annoying thing is, a lot of these losses are excruciatingly close... 272-266...


I'll tweak the settings again before the second set of games.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #7 on: June 20, 2005, 08:44:13 PM »
« Edited: June 20, 2005, 09:06:16 PM by Erc »

Group E:

Game 1:

Erc [5] v. Blerpiez [11]

I could just never get any momentum.

Peter Blerpiez (D-MA): 63,152,034, 50%, 300 EV
P.G. Talbott (R-NY): 60,153,452, 48%, 238 EV

[The EV count of my own election prediction, reversed, ironically enough]



Damn you, Florida.  Not that it would have made a difference, but still.


Game 2:

DanielX [11] v. True Democrat [5]

True Democrat was favored in this race, and won...but only by a weird fluke...he won Texas.

True Democrat (D-PA): 52%, 65,330,601, 304 EV
Daniel Smith (R-WY): 46%, 58,173,935, 234 EV



Game 3:

MHS2002 [10] v. Gustaf [6]

Pettit started off with a considerable lead over Lundgren.  Lundgren began to gain back some ground electorally, but was still down by 4 points to Pettit after the second debate (Lundgren won the first, Pettit the second and third).
Going into election day, Lundgren had taken the popular vote lead, but was at a severe disadvantage electorally.

Somehow, Lundgren made it up though, and won the election with extremely close victories in Virginia, Mississippi, and Massachusetts, although Pettit won the popular vote by a small margin--the reverse of what the pundits had been predicting.

Scott Pettit (R-DC): 61,756,082, 49%, 260 EV
Gustaf Lundgren (D-MN):  61,414,495, 49%, 278 EV

Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #8 on: June 20, 2005, 09:25:22 PM »

Total Votes:

Democrats:
881,565,251 (51.1%)

Republicans:
845,215,431 (48.9%)


This 2.1% imbalance is a problem that needs to be corrected.

Note that this means that a good number of the really close Democratic victories should actually have been won by Republicans (obviously).

We know that 5-5 results in a Republican bias, but 5-4 results in a Democratic bias...

Lemme test out 4-4 on a couple, and see if that works at all.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2005, 12:08:48 AM »

Dubya [15] v. Ben Myers [15] (after rain delay)

Rob Byers (D-TX): 63,090,194, 50%, 273 EV
William Goldwater (R-FL):  60,483,644, 48%, 265 EV



Despite the impressive coup of California, Goldwater lost Byers' home state of Texas, and, more importantly, Arizona and New Mexico, costing him the election.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #10 on: June 21, 2005, 07:07:35 PM »


Game 3:

Bono v. Gabu

Gabu, the second seed for the Democrats, was favored to win this race.  Started off in the lead...and kept it.

Lucas Longley (D-WA): 54%, 67,514,087, 375 EV
Bono Vox (R-NH): 44%, 55,937,375, 163 EV

My condolences to Bono on losing his home state by 24%...but my congratulations on coming within 1.3% of winning Maryland, and winning the state of Hawaii.



My "home state" is south carolina, and how come I won west virginia but lost florida and kansas?

I've got Bono Vox down as being from NH...


Anyway, more results (hopefully more balanced) should be coming later tonight into tomorrow.


Nobody's eliminated yet...
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Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2005, 04:22:47 PM »

For this second group of games, I kept it at 5-4 (Rep-Dem establishment), but swung each state 2% to the Republicans to even the playing field.

Again, regionalism, no dynamism.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #12 on: June 22, 2005, 04:47:03 PM »

Ok...

Just ran the first three games...and let's just say it wasn't pretty.

The Democrats won Texas in all three games.

The same old syndrome, that the Republicans start off strong but slip and die...is still there.

I'm going to move the starting date up by a week and see if the Republicans do any better.

Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #13 on: June 22, 2005, 05:13:00 PM »

I think this might be working out better.  Maybe.

Game 1:

Wildcard [1] v. Hughento [1]

Battle of the Titans.

Hard-fought battle, but Lane had the advantage all the way through--California gave him a large advantage, forcing Bartlett to spend money in what should have been a solid Democratic state.

Final Results:

Hugh Bartlett (D-OR): 49%, 61,918,022, 264 EV
Michael R. Lane (R-CA): 49%, 61,025,755, 274 EV



A lot of really close states in the Midwest...Missouri, Indiana...

And the Republicans finally manage to win a game!

Will their luck hold up?

Dubya [15] v. Cosmo Kramer [10]

This was a dashed exciting race, with its fair share of exciting scandals, debates, and so forth.  As election day approached, the country was split down the middle:  45% Kramer, 45% Goldwater...269 EV for Kramer, 269 EV for Goldwater.  Each candidate and his running mate spent the last day in their top target state:  Iowa for the Republicans, Louisiana for the Democrats.

Cosmo Kramer (D-AR): 49%, 62,018,776, 269 EV
William Goldwater (R-FL): 48%, 60,803,611, 269 EV


(sorry, forgot to get the percentages on this one).

Although Dubya obviously won in Congress, we can't penalize Kramer for circumstances out of his control...so this will be counted as a tie for our purposes.

Game 3:

Keystone Phil [6] v. Rob Byers [15]

No brilliant commentary for this one.  Sorry.

Rob Byers (D-TX): 49%, 61,990,513, 289 EV
Keystone Phil (R-PA): 49%, 61,450,691, 249 EV




Overall, 1 Republican win, 1 tie, and 1 Democrat win.

Not bad...although the Democrats have won the popular vote marginally in all three.


Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2005, 05:56:13 PM »

Group B:

Game 1:

PBrunsel [2] v. Gabu [2]

Brunsel started off with a definite advantage in this one, up in the polls by one point, and confining the Democrats to the Northeast, Washington, and Illinois.  Of course, Longley did gain as time went on, but it was an uphill struggle.  But after a couple scandals, Brunsel began to suffer, down by 5 points in the polls by the 18th of October.  However, Brunsel annihilated Longley in the last debate, bringing some pep back into his faltering campaign and placing within one point of the lead.  His position was still weak going into election day--the hopes of the entire Republican party would rest on the state of Ohio come Tuesday.

Despite Brunsel's spending nearly a week there, Ohio proved fickle.

Lucas Longley [D-WA]:  50%, 62,936,015, 292 EV
Paul Brunsel [R-IA]: 48%, 60,592,346, 242 EV



There were also excruciatingly close losses for Brunsel in Tennessee and Wisconsin.


Game 2:
Jake [14] v. Akno21 [9]

Nichols started out at a slight disadvantage, but soon began to make it up, despite a humiliating loss to Knobel in the first debate (Nichols later recovered and fought Knobel to a draw in the next two).  Although the Nichols campaign took a serious blow when Knobel took a large lead in Florida, he started making inroads into Knobel territory in the last week--but these ultimately did not come to fruition.

Alex Knobel (D-MD): 64,056,495, 51%, 282 EV
Jake Nichols (R-PA): 59,909,564, 47%, 256 EV



Close losses in Minnesota and Connecticut for Nichols.


Game 3:
Bono [7] v. Ebowed [14]

Bono had a humiliating loss in the last round...
While Ebowed had a humiliating loss in the first.

One of them is going to have to win this game.


Bono started off with a huge lead, with a 6% lead over Porceddu and over 300 EV's in the bag.  Porceddu gradually began to solidify his base states (California, for example), but he was still in serious trouble.  His victory in the first debate was buried in the news by a scandal of his...Bono then won the second debate, took the lead in California, and still had a 5% lead nationally.  Porceddu did win the final debate, preventing an utter collapse of his campaign.  Both candidates got hit with large scandals in the last two weeks (Bono Momentum: -220, Porceddu Momentum: -55 on Nov 1), creating a lot of uncertainty coming into the election.  Bono, for the first time, did not have 270 EV under wraps...but, considering his 4-point national lead, it was assumed by most pundits that he'd win nonetheless.

When Bono won Florida early in the night, his victory was essentially guaranteed.

Bono Vox (R-NH):  63,535,363, 51%, 325 EV
Dan Porceddu (D-SC):  59,425,269, 47%, 213 EV




First Republican PV victory of the night.
Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #15 on: June 22, 2005, 06:38:59 PM »

Group C:

supersoulty [3] v. Max Power [13]

Situation on September 22:

Solid Democrat: D.C.
Lean Democrat:
Tossup: HI, DE, NJ, NY, MA, CT, RI
Lean Republican: MI, VT, MD, CA
Solid Republican:  Everything Else.

Soult with a 14-point lead.


Reese did a good job, considering...he took back IL within a week, got the Big Mo (+193) in two weeks.  But the dream wasn't to be.  Soult won the first two debates and crushed Reese in the third, retook the West Coast, and sprung a scandal on Reese.  On election day, Soult still had a ten-point lead in the polls.

Chris Soult (R-PA): 54%, 67,457,418, 359 EV
Max Power (D-PA): 44%, 55,838,902, 179 EV



Reese squeaked by with California by 12,000 votes.


Game 2:

Cheesewhiz [13] v. Sam Spade [3]

Ard started off this game with a three-point advantage over Anderson (the only Democrat to lose in the last round).  After two uninspiring weeks, Anderson began to surge, getting neck-and-neck with Ard in the polls, putting California securely back in his column...and then got hit with a Power 9 scandal, which far outplayed the draw in the first debate in the media.  Ard regained a two-point lead, only to see Anderson win the second debate.  Ard won the third, but it made little dent in Anderson's campaign, which had somehow gained a solid two-point lead over Ard and an extremely solid base of 260 EV.  It was still anyone's game, however...until Anderson gained an 18-point lead in Florida overnight--a near-inexplicable gain, that, ultimately, cost Ard the election.

John Anderson (D-LA): 51%, 63,842,465, 287 EV
Mark Ard (R-WI): 47%, 59,563,937, 251 EV




Game 3:

Colin Wixted [8] v. Ilikeverin [8]

Ilikeverin started with the smallest of advantages, but this was anybody's game.  In the third week of campaigning, however, Ilikeverin started running away with it...tempered somewhat by Wixted's win in the first debate, but not enough.  Wixted gained the Big Mo after his win in the second debate, and narrowed the gap between the two of them.  Wixted's win in the third debate made the race once again completely even...until Wixted, in turn, was hit with a scandal--a moderate one, but enough to seriously dent his momentum.  The key state going into Election Day was, once again, Florida...Ilikeverin had a 3-point lead here, but the Republicans hoped it could be surmounted.

But it was not to be.

Wixted's failure in Florida, and, probably more importantly, the Southwest, doomed him to a narrow defeat despite his great successes elsewhere.

Chris Ilikeverin (D-IN): 62,534,165, 50%, 278 EV
Colin Wixted (R-AK): 60,841,812, 48%, 260 EV

Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2005, 07:42:08 PM »

Group D:

Ernest [4] v. Alcon [4]

Bunbury started the game with the slightest of leads...which he expanded to two points...then three...and then he won the first debate...but Alcon, in the meantime, had gotten the Big Mo', and was closing the gap quickly, despite his debate loss.  Bunbury won the second debate...but he was still mired in negative momentum for some reason, and was down by 4 in the polls...and, to top it off, Alcon won the third debate.  As election day neared, San Croix had a five-point lead...but there was no clear leader in the electoral vote...

Bunbury did much better than expected, losing the popular vote by only two percent...but failed to take either Massachusetts or Minnesota, giving San Croix the election.

Alcon San Croix (D-WA): 63,320,466, 50%, 277 EV
Ernest Bunbury (R-SC): 59,887,269, 48%, 261 EV



Game 2:
AndrewBerger [12] v. Immy [12]

Everett started off with the advantage here, and didn't let go.  This was not aided by the Berger campaign's decision to spend the final week of the campaign courting Vermont.  And, come November 2nd, they did win Vermont and her three electoral votes.

Eric Everett (D-ID): 64,743,857, 52%, 298 EV
Andrew Berger (R-NY): 58,549,338, 47%, 240 EV



josh22 [9] v. nini2287 [7]

Craddock started off with a solid three-point lead over Holler, and quickly expanded it--no state between Maryland and Hawaii was truly secure for the Democrats.  Holler recovered in California to some extent...but was down 5 in the polls.

This, however, was followed by three things:

1) A moderate Craddock Scandal
2) A difference between Holler's and Craddock's momentum of over 300
3) Holler leaving Craddock's skull ground into a bloody pulp on the debate floor.

Craddock's lead fell to one point.  However, despite his loss in the second debate, there wasn't much more abuse Craddock could take...he slowly began to bounce back, expanding his lead to two points...which he soon lost again.  Holler made gains in the Mississippi Valley and in the polls--ahead two going into election day.

And then Craddock fell prey to Murphy's Law on Election Day.

Nicholas Holler (D-PA): 62,247,814, 49%, 299 EV
Josh Craddock (R-NC): 60,623,666, 48%, 239 EV




Methinks the Republicans will need a bit more help.
Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2005, 08:18:20 PM »

Group E:

Erc [5] v. True Democrat [5]

I started out with a solid three-point lead here...but will I fall prey to the same disease that doomed Craddock?

Maybe, maybe not.

Despite scandals (on both sides), my generally poor performance in the debates, and so forth, the race stayed pretty neck-and-neck.

Come November 1, the race was tied 46-46, although I had a slight lead over Democrat in the electoral vote.  My weak spot?  Texas.  But could Democrat (D-PA) exploit it?

To the surprise of all the pundits...yes.  Talbott made the mistake of camping out in Arizona, of all places, on the final day, while True Democrat exerted his full effort on Texas...which he won by less than 70,000 votes (0.7%).

True Democrat (D-PA): 61,942,730, 49%, 299 EV
P.G. Talbott (R-NY): 60,941,525, 49%, 239 EV



* Erc screams


Game 2:

DanielX [11] v. Gustaf [6]

Lundgren started out with a decisive four-point advantage.  However, despite scandals and losses in the first two debates, Smith continued fighting and kept the election quite competitive up until Lundgren took Florida by three points on Election Day.

Gustaf Lundgren (D-MN): 51%, 63,703,604, 285 EV
Daniel Smith (R-WY): 47%, 59,218,359, 253 EV



Game 3:

MHS2002 [10] v. Blerpiez [11]

Pettit began with an astonishing six-point lead over Blerpiez.  This was narrowed to three points by Election Day--just enough to ensure that Pettit could not be absolutely sure of victory.  Blerpiez needed to win Connecticut, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Louisiana in order to win...and, of course, not lose any of his own states.

As the states rolled in, Blerpiez won Connecticut...
Tennessee (decisively)...
Louisiana (by 5000 votes)...

All eyes turned to Wisconsin.

But the election-night miracle was not to be, and Wisconsin went to Pettit by 5 points.

Scott Pettit (R-DC): 51%, 63,652,602, 273 EV
Peter Blerpiez (D-MA): 47%, 59,671,745, 265 EV

Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2005, 08:29:08 PM »

Total Record Today:

R: 4
D: 9
Tie: 1

R: 49.7% of the vote
D: 50.3% of the vote

Since the Democrats still have a small advantage, next round, I'm going to funnel some of the Libertarian vote into the Republican vote, and move the beginning date forward 5 days.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #19 on: June 22, 2005, 09:14:14 PM »

And now, a taste of Round 3.

Group A:

Wildcard [1] v. Ben Meyers [15]

Lane started out with an advantage, and kept it, albeit narrowly, for the rest of the election.

Michael R. Lane (R-CA): 50%, 62,972,399, 288 EV
Rob Byers (D-TX): 48%, 60,485,330, 250 EV



Game 2:

Dubya [15] v. Hughento [1]

The two began neck-and-neck--but soon swung heavily to Bartlett.  However, despite a crippling scandal, Goldwater began to fight back--but, by November 1, it was clear that Goldwater, despite his best efforts, just wasn't going to dig himself out of the whole that -123 momentum dug for him.

Although Goldwater did better than expected on Election Day, it wasn't quite enough.

Hugh Bartlett (D-OR): 51%, 64,070,952, 273 EV
William Goldwater (R-FL): 47%, 59,591,627, 265 EV



Game 3:

Keystone Phil [6] v. Cosmo Kramer [10]

Phil started with a five-point lead.  Although Kramer had somehow completely eliminated it by Election Day, Phil still had a slight advantage in the Electoral College.

Keystone Phil (R-PA): 62,151,429, 50%, 278 EV
Cosmo Kramer (D-AR): 61,098,385, 49%, 260 EV.



Both candidates just barely won their home states.


Group B and C results to be posted tomorrow, D and E on Friday.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #20 on: June 22, 2005, 10:48:03 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2005, 10:57:28 PM by Erc »

Since I'm utterly bored today...

Group B:

Game 1:

PBrunsel [2] v. Ebowed [14]

As expected, Brunsel started off with a large lead...and kept it for the entire game.  Porceddu did perform very well electorally consider how far he lagged behind Brunsel in the popular vote, however.

Paul Brunsel (R-IA): 53%, 66,047,260, 282 EV
Dan Porceddu (D-SC): 46%, 57,697,401, 256 EV



PBrunsel only lost California by 0.5%.

Game 2:
Jake [14] v. Gabu [2]

Longley started off with a three point lead (and the control of Texas), but Nichols rallied quickly, closing the gap to one point.  As Nichols won the last debate and Longley got hit with a minor scandal, Nichols actually took the lead in the last week and forced Longley to spend precious time keeping California in his column, where Nichols had somehow garnered a three-point lead.

Longley did, indeed win California (by .4%), but the time he spent there certainly cost him Arizona (where he lost by 8000 votes) and Tennessee (loss by 5700 votes).

Jake Nichols (R-PA): 50%, 62,694,382, 273 EV
Lucas Longley (D-WA): 48%, 60,512,982, 265 EV



Well, that was a shock.  Congratulations to Jake on what can only be described as a very lucky victory.

May I have tipped the balance too far to the Republicans?


Game 3:

Bono [7] v. Akno [9]

Bono's had a bit of a whirlwind tour so far...let's see how he does this round.

Bono started off with a three-point lead, but it soon diminished, and by election day, Knobel had a two-point lead.  Would November 2 hold any surprises?

Nope.

Alex Knobel (D-MD): 63,475,340, 51%, 275 EV
Bono Vox (R-NH): 60,082,056, 48%, 263 EV

Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #21 on: June 22, 2005, 10:58:43 PM »


You got lucky.  Tongue

But congratulations are in order anyway.

I've lost all my games so far by little piddly margins like that.  First game...Florida by a nose.  Second game...Texas by a nose.

Next character I create's going to be from the South...
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Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #22 on: June 23, 2005, 12:24:23 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2005, 01:52:05 PM by Erc »

Group C:

supersoulty v. Ilikeverin

The only undefeated Republican v. an undefeated Democrat...

Supersoulty, who has just been a machine in this tournament, continues along his merry way, beginning with an 11-point (!) lead over Ilikeverin.  This had narrowed to six by November, but Ilikeverin's fate was sealed from the beginning.

Chris Soult (R-PA):  66,720,375, 53%, 366 EV
Chris Ilikeverin (D-IN): 57,272,483, 45%, 172 EV



EXHIBITION GAME:

(accidentally played the wrong two people against each other, but this game deserves mentioning anyway)

Cheesewhiz [13] v. Sam Spade [3]

Ard started off with a good lead (3 points)...and maintained a small lead throughout the campaign.  Come election day, things were still up in the air...Ard was ahead by two, but Nevada, Louisiana, Minnesota, and Ohio were still up for grabs...

Anderson won his home state of Louisiana, and the state of Mondale proved faithful...which was all Anderson needed.  Lost the popular vote, and had the smallest electoral mandate since Hayes...but Anderson won the election.

Mark Ard (R-WI): 63,000,401, 50%, 268 EV
John Anderson (D-LA): 60,847,055, 270 EV



Game 2:

Cheesewhiz [13] v. Max Power [13]

Ard started off with a five-point lead over Ronald McDonald...which evaporated by a week before the election, as Ard got stuck with a major scandal which just wouldn't go away...by election day, he was down four points in the polls.  However, there were still a lot of undecided voters out there, so the race wasn't quite over yet (despite the -295 Mo).

Max Power (D-PA): 64,785,808, 52%, 276 EV
Mark Ard (R-WI): 59,021,901, 47%, 262 EV



Game 3:

Colin Wixted [8] v. Sam Spade [3]

At the beginning of the campaign, Wixted had a mighty six-point lead.  This had narrowed to one point by the day of the election...but Wixted still had a considerable electoral advantage.  In order to win, Anderson needed to keep his own states, take Maryland, Ohio, Indiana, and Wisconsin, and pick off at least one of the marginal Wixted states.  A tough objective...but possible.

The night began well for Anderson, winning Indiana by nearly seven points.  The night turned sour around 8:30, as Anderson received news of close losses in Ohio and West Virginia (which he should not have lost).  Wixted's victory in Maryland at 9:00 sealed Anderson's fate...despite subsequent surprise victories in New Jersey and Tennessee, Wixted's EV count was now all but unsurmountable.

Colin Wixted (R-AK):  62,760,536, 50%, 298 EV
John Anderson (D-LA): 61,277,956, 49%, 240 EV







Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #23 on: June 23, 2005, 12:26:25 AM »

I have a felling I'm gonig to be the Deomcrat eliminated from me group.  We're all tied and I'm facing the toughest Republican in the round without the Democratic advantages.  We'll see though...

This is why the first round is six games...makes it a bit longer (hopefully not NBA-playoff level), but it gives me more of a chance to work out the kinks without penalizing certain players too much.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #24 on: June 23, 2005, 12:49:50 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2005, 12:53:14 AM by Erc »

Halfway through the second round for the first three groups...

Here are the standings.

Group A:
Republicans:
Wildcard [1] : 2-1
Keystone Phil [6]: 1-2
Dubya [15]: 0-2-1

Democrats:
Ben Myers [15]:  2-1, 812 EV
hughento [1]: 2-1, 809 EV
Cosmo Kramer [10]: 1-1-1


Group B:
Republicans:
Jake [14]: 1-2, 783 EV
PBrunsel [2]: 1-2, 781 EV
Bono [7]: 1-2, 751 EV

Democrats:
Akno21 [9]: 3-0
Gabu [2]: 2-1
Ebowed [14]: 1-2


Group C:
Republicans:
supersoulty [3]: 3-0
Colin Wixted [8]: 1-2
Cheesewhiz [13]: 0-3

Democrats:
Max Power [13]: 2-1, 727 EV
Ilikeverin [8]: 2-1, 725 EV
Sam Spade [3]: 1-2


Yes, that's right, the centenarian is winning for the Democrats in Group C...

And I'm off to check supersoulty for steroids... Wink
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