Genuine Tossup; Clinton ekes out a win.
Even in Texas, there are limits to how well Trump can do among Hispanics.
Let's try out a scenario. Let's say this happens (a very favorable scenario for Clinton)
Whites (55%): 74% Trump, 22% Clinton
Latinos (25%): 80% Clinton, 15% Trump
Blacks (13%): 90% Clinton, 8% Trump
Other (7%): 65% Clinton, 30% Trump
This ends up at about a tie, 48-48. This assumes Clinton wins 80-15 among Latinos and Latino turnout increases significantly, and whites swing to Clinton, and blacks/other makes up more of the electorate as well.
Don't be so overconfident.
Obviously, a lot of it does come down to Clinton's performance and turnout among Latino voters, but the white vote matters as well.
The only recent poll we have out of Texas showed Trump with "only" a 27-point lead among White voters in Texas. Not a great poll, admittedly, and I do expect the margin will likely be wider than that, but I would expect the Clinton-Trump margin will be closer than the 47-point margin among whites in 2008 (the last year we had exit polls).
[Note that I'm basing my prediction on a double-digit nationwide Clinton win, as well.]
Poll
