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Posts: 14,794
Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74
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« on: June 02, 2015, 04:23:53 PM » |
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Last month I switched from Walker to Paul, and this month I'm on to Rubio. I don't see an obvious path for him, but if he pulls an upset in NH , SC is likely his. Big if. I'd give him 25% chance and the other two 20%. Walker has the early state advantages especially in IA but potentially NH too, and those two could translate to SC for him because of his broad appeal despite not being a southerner. Yet he comes with the risk of saying something silly.
Paul also has a major early state advantage, but he is susceptible to being forced out by coalescence around a candidate like Rubio if he gets any momentum.
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