1964: Kennedy/Johnson vs Goldwater/Tower

[hcallega]

The CRA probably doesn't pass Congress in 1964, as it took a series of lucky events to get it passed when it did IOTL. I see it passing in early 1965 after Kennedy trounces the anti-CRA Goldwater. Dirksen will move to break the filibuster to avoid continued problems on Civil Rights. Here are my predictions for a second Kennedy term on major LBJ items:

-VRA: Can get passed at any point between 1965-1969. Much less controversial than the CRA. Comes down to how much effort/political capital Kennedy wants to spend on it.
-Medicare/Medicaid: Good chance of Medicare passing once Harry Byrd, Sr. passes away/steps down as Senate Finance Committee Chairman. IOTL he was dead set against passing it until Johnson gave him the 'treatment.' His sucessor, Russell Long, was much more supportive, as was House Ways and Means Chairman Wilbur Mills, who will get it passed with bipartisan support after the '64 elections. Medicaid may or may not get added to the package. 1966-'67
-Tax Cuts: Kennedy will have to agree to Byrd's proposed budget cuts if he wants it passed before the election, which he will. 1964.
-War on Poverty: One of JFK's last notes was 'POVERTY.' He also asked the head of the Census Bureau to analyze how taking on poverty would help him in 1964. That being said, JFK lacked the same emotional commitment to fighting poverty than LBJ, along with the lack of legislating skills. I'd expect greater funding for existing programs (Appalachia development, Food Stamps, AFDC, etc.) rather than the creation of new bureaucracies and programs.
-ESEA: Unlikely to pass for a few reasons. Mostly because JFK was trapped between Northern Catholic Democrats who wanted aid for parochial schools, but Dixiecrats wanted nothing of the sort. LBJ ultimately tied funding to students and not schools, and was largely successful because he wasn't Catholic.  Hard to see Kennedy pulling this one off.


Overall Kennedy can probably get most of the big items of the 'Great Society' passed in 1964 and 1965, but not everything. He also won't push for, nor would he get passed, as large of a War on Poverty than LBJ. I'm not touching Vietnam here, as that's a whole nother can of worms.