UK General Election - May 7th 2015

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LordA releasing one from EdM's Doncaster North with Ed ahead, UKIP a strong second. His teaser was that there's enough Tories who could tactically vote to get rid of Ed. Not happening though, obv.

No numbers yet.

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Where you up for Clegg?

(If Hallam Labour can put the squeeze on the Greens...)

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Ashcroft has retracted his Donny poll of EdM's seat and corrected it to

54 Lab (+7)
25 UKIP (+21)
13 Con (-8)
4 LD (-11)

Should've smelt a rat when it was showing the Tories UP on 2010 here.

Safe as houses. Terrible news for Ed Miliband.

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Nothing too shocking. The two major stories being the collapse of the LDs to Labour (and, to a smaller extent, to the Greens and the SNP, but also the Tories is certain places), and UKIP taking a massive chunk from the Tories and a smaller chunk from Labour.

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By the way, I didn't mean to suggest that UKIP weren't getting any 2010 Labour voters, just that the scale of the movement of formerly Labour voters to them in historically strong Labour areas like Doncaster North is exaggerated.  I suspect that most "white working class" voters who fit the stereotype have never been particularly reliable Labour voters.

The idea that Labour is losing its base up North in droves comes from the London-media (left and right) which uses the term 'traditional Labour voter' as weasel words for "thick, backward bloke from the provincial North". This obviously isn't a true description by any stretch though.

The idea that most old Labour voters (in age and faction) are ripe for UKIP's picking isn't true and to say that Old Labourers would be so easily tempted by racists like UKIP is a rather offensive assessment which, unfortunately, has become an enduring narrative in the media.

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Apparently the gov are eying up 30th March as the start of the campaign. 6 weeks.

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For some context, the consensus this time 5 years ago was still that David Cameron would win a stonking majority (and he'd even see the Tory lead grow during the campaign!!).

A week is a long time...

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If Clegg were to loose his seat, would Cable take over as leader?

No, probably not, but he may be a candidate. He'd also have to hold his seat in Twickenham. He's favoured there, but the Tories won it in the May local elections

On Hallam, I wouldn't exactly be feeling confident if I was Clegg. It's not helpful to him that Labour seem to have selected a really great candidate there as well.

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If Clegg wins, it'll be because of Green voters splitting the Labour vote.

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And if Labour have a good campaign and eek out a majority without Scotland, Canadian Liberal style, then lol

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And if Labour have a good campaign and eek out a majority without Scotland, Canadian Liberal style, then lol

I doubt Labour would be able to manage that - they might have to rely on SNP support to govern.

I kind reminder than most were still predicting a Cameron landslide this time 5 years ago.

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Which makes things difficult. I actually expect the Lib Dems to poll between 15 and 20%; something a bit like 1992/1997 but with a seat spread falling somewhere in the middle (I don't expect the Lib Dems to lose seats to the Tories in London for example).

With all the bile directed towards them over the last 4 years there may well be a shy Lib Dem voter effect going on right now. That would explain why they haven't budged in the opinion polls for the last 3 1/2 years.

Local/European results have, in no way, supported this.

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Anyone see Steph and Dom meet Nigel Farage?

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On the SNP and Sturgeon, all I'd say is that somebody else also famously said they'd never go in with the Tories.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVIJBxZruz8

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Already since the new year, we've had a flock of seat predictions in from the media.

I'm willing to punt that most will be pretty different to the final result. UKIP are being underestimated, as usual.

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Wait, official campaign?

You mean we won't have the actual campaign period when Cameron has to go to the Queen and dissolve parliament and it all gets serious?

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http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30726499

Frightened! Frit!

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He's right on this one though.

It reeks of opportunism. Talk up the Greens to do to Labour what UKIP has done to the PM. I would've thought an incumbent PM would've been falling over themselves to talk about their record.

A better response would've been to say what Clegg, Miliband and Farage have all said - they'll turn up whoever the media companies invite. Since it's up to the media, I would've thought that some form of debate would be better than no debate at all, just because of the Greens (a minor party, who haven't saved a single deposit in the 19 by-elections since 2010) getting overlooked.

http://labourlist.org/2015/01/10-times-david-cameron-praised-tv-debates/

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From the Conservative perspective, time will be allocated 75:25 in favour of people who will be criticising Cameron: why volunteer to be that turkey?

Because that'll be the case for the other 3 leaders as well...

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Many 'lefties' used to vote LibDem because Labour's image was too rough and tumble for the Islington/Brighton kind've stereotype and they'd, of course, never vote for those nasty Tories.

This is who the Greens are winning over.

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I wonder. Is it just the new against-all option for people who'd never vote for the nasty Ukip?

Yes.

A factor fueling UKIP and the Greens is that with the LibDems out the game, the 'perpetually protesting' vote has splittered in all directions.

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Have we ever had a party leader this threatened before?

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We like to think of them as that racist uncle who we pretend not to have anything to do with but who insists on turning up to family events anyway.

And this election could be one such family event.

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Interesting analysis by Michael Ashcroft about Lib Dem defectors from 2010:

In particular, and crucially, the Lib Dems attracted a group of voters who did not want to vote for Gordon Brown and thought they had the luxury of voting against Labour without helping to elect a Conservative government. These people are numerous, and furious

What the Lib Dems have achieved, or how different from the Conservatives they can claim to be, is for them neither here nor there. As far as these people were concerned,  the Lib Dems’ most important job – their only job – was to keep the Tories out, and now look what they’ve done.

The Lib Dems aren't winning those voters back anytime soon! lol

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/03/what-are-the-liberal-democrats-for/

Stating the obvious, but okay.

As underwhelming as Ed may be, Labour would be doing worse if his brother were leader. If he couldn't manage to defeat his brother then he sure as heck wouldn't be on course to defeat David Cameron.

Plus, imagine him trying to take on any number of the (few) things that have gone right for Ed: phone hacking, Syria, price freeze, omnishambles, etc...

Labour have put up probably the worst possible candidate they could have in Gordon.

What has he done?

http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-cream-of-the-crop/

When would Gordon ever have been a "winnable target for Ed Miliband"?

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When would Gordon ever have been a "winnable target for Ed Miliband"?

Because the Lib Dems collapsed and Malcolm Bruce is retiring. Labour were second in the seat in 2005 and were just a bit behind the SNP in 2010.

Yeah, but even pre-surge, it was going to probably go SNP. No one said Labour was in with a shout when Bruce said he was going.