UK General Election - May 7th 2015

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Foreign Office minister Mark Simmonds resigns from government. He's the MP for Boston & Skegness and he's ssaid he's not standing in 2015. Good news for UKIP.

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Was there a local election here in May just gone?

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Channel 4 saying Neil Hamilton wants to run.

Ahahahaha. Tory hold.

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In terms of all these "IF Boris was leader" polls, would similar hypotheticals on Blair/Brown from 2005-2007 be a good comparison for how inane they are once the alternative actually takes office?

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The Foreign Office has lost Hague, Warsi and Simmonds within a month...

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Junk poll in Southampton Itchen, or is something odd going on locally?

Ashcroft suggests it's students being at home.

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Rhondda in 2001 remains the funniest instance to date, I think.

Labour 23,230 votes (68% -7% on 1997)
Plaid Cymru 7,183 votes (21% +8% on 1997)
Conservatives 1,557 votes (5% +1% on 1997)
Liberal Democrats 1,525 votes (4% -2% on 1997)
Independent 507 votes (1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 16,047 votes (47%) on a swing of 7% from Lab to Plaid

Am I missing something here, because that doesn't sound funny at all?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhondda_%28Assembly_constituency%29#Elections_in_the_1990s

Also, why did Plaid win Rhondda anyway?

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Liberal Democrats release pre-manifesto. It includes:

* four weeks of paternity leave
* the mansion tax on houses over £2,000,000
* An aim to balance budget by 2017/18.
* higher Capital Gains taxes
* no subsidised TV license or fuel allowances for better-off elderly
* cheaper bus travel for young people
* decriminalisation of drugs, Portugal style and possibly an endorsement of cannabis legalisation
* rule out all airport/runway expansions or openings in London
* phasing out coal power by 2050
* abolishing PCC's
* STV for local elections
* Voting age at 16

Who knows how much will get through in the event of a coalition? (my wager is that the drugs and the airport policies would be hardest to implement; as well as the various tax rises if it's another blue-yellow coalition).

Great for us all to have a list of the promises they'll break in the next parliament.

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The problem of England continues to be intractable. Creating an English Parliament leads to the risk that the First Minister of England would do to the Prime Minister of the UK what Boris Yeltsin did to Mikhail Gorbachev.  Federal type states do not work very well when one member of the Federation is stronger than all the others combined.

I wonder if this is really true. One can't precisely compare a dying socialist dictatorship to the UK. Perhaps it would weaken the UK federal government, but the same is true in countries with much more federal subject parity like Belgium.

I'd imagine a more regional solution would be more viable, but a lot depends on the government elected in May. I'd imagine if Scotland votes Yes, 5 more years of the Tories would lead to some very loud shouts for northern devolution. Of course, Labour have been making some soundings on devolution to local areas, but the shape that'd take is still very vague.

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Can backlash after Yes victory give SNP a great victory in GE2015 enough to make them 3rd party in Commons and king-maker? Or Scottish still vote for Labour after all?

Hard to tell, but I'd expect a big swing to the SNP because voters would see them as those best able to get Scotland a good deal in negotiations.

Also, if they're the kingmakers, they can basically demand whatever they want and pull the plug if the government tries to say no.

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What happens if we see a result along these lines?

Lab - 290 seats
Con - 290 seats
SNP - 35 seats
Lib Dems - 20 seats

The SNP would get literally anything they'd ask for a few months, but probably minority Lab, although the Tories wouldve been ahead in the popular vote, so there'd be plenty of Tory politicians lining up to call the election a sham.

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Can't wait for the TV debates. Will the Greens be invited I wonder? 

Cameron's trying to dodge them, apparently. But the Tories are apparently pumping for an Ed-Dave debate, then a Lab-Con-Lib-UKIP-Green debate.

I don't see the point in inviting the Greens personally (although, it'd do the Tories well if they were). Where's the line? They gonna invite George Galloway for Respect as well?

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Yeah, I mean, if you invite the Greens but not the other parties who have at least 1 MP in the commons, it's going to get sticky.

As would inviting Clegg, but not Farage.

Personally, I'd just like an Ed-Dave debate. They're the only real contenders to be PM.

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Can't wait for the TV debates. Will the Greens be invited I wonder? 

Cameron's trying to dodge them, apparently. But the Tories are apparently pumping for an Ed-Dave debate, then a Lab-Con-Lib-UKIP-Green debate.

I don't see the point in inviting the Greens personally (although, it'd do the Tories well if they were). Where's the line? They gonna invite George Galloway for Respect as well?

They do that in Canada and it doesn't create good debates. Lots of leaders squabbling and the public is forced to watch small leaders blather on about things they don't care about  (e.g. The Bloc Quebecois always got invited to the English debates).

I think Ed-David or Ed-David-Nigel-Nick are the only reasonable ways to go.

They do the two main PM candidates in Australia and NZ right?

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Though never forget that every other election is proclaimed to be the least predictable in recent memory.

Not many things since election 2010 have been 'normal' though. The Lib collapse, Coalition, referendum, UKIP, Ed Miliband being the Miliband who became leader, all three leaders being about as popular as ebola. The only weird political manoeuvrings 2005-2010 really had was a constant Labour leadership crisis.

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I don't see why Plaid and the SNP should be involved. Scotland and Wales had separate debates last time which makes a lot more sense.

Also, I seem to remember Sky genuinely promising to empty chair Gordon Brown last time when he was dragging his feet. Don't see them doing that to Cameron now he seems to have cold feet.

A Cam-Ed-Clegg debate following a Cam-Ed debate would be hilarious though because it'd just become 'rip Nick Clegg to pieces for 2 hours'.

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The fact that the Conservatives are still hovering at 30% while UKIP is in the mid-teens is amazing.  They're doing what the Canadian PC's couldn't - lose their crazy uncles and still remain the primary center-right party.

For now.

But must insert usual statements of 'oldest political party on Earth', 'they've survived worse', etc.

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The fact that the Conservatives are still hovering at 30% while UKIP is in the mid-teens is amazing.  They're doing what the Canadian PC's couldn't - lose their crazy uncles and still remain the primary center-right party.

The PCs started the 1993 campaign level pegging with the Liberals...

Indeed, here's the first poll of the '93 campaign

37-35-10-8-8

Not all that different from the UK today when you consider that Mulroney's coalition included Quebec nationalists. Of course, I doubt Cameron will poop the bed like Kim Campbell.

And Canada-sized swings are a rarity in the UK.

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Jeremy Browne stepping down in Taunton Deane. Don't think many saw this coming and it's one less candidate in a LD leadership election next year.

I'll be shocked if this isn't a Tory gain.

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I imagine any form of 5+ leader debate would remove any air available to build another Clegg-style surge.

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If the rise of the UKIP will result in the House of Commons finally being elected by some form of proportional representation, then they will have been a net force for good.

Wow, gross.

The rise of a racist party that makes many feel like unwanted guests in their own country, a party which has trashed even further our political discourse, but HEY, but our votes might be counted in a different way. Great.

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If the rise of the UKIP will result in the House of Commons finally being elected by some form of proportional representation, then they will have been a net force for good.

Wow, gross.

The rise of a racist party that makes many feel like unwanted guests in their own country, a party which has trashed even further our political discourse, but HEY, but our votes might be counted in a different way. Great.

You are trivializing this. PR could potentially change both the political process and landscape quite a bit. You could argue that FPTP simply isn't real democracy, because you are forced to either waste your vote or vote for the lesser evil.

"Forced" is the wrong word. No one is forced to vote for any party, but I understand what you mean, obviously.

But to cheer on UKIP because we might get PR because of it is bordering on offensive.

One thing I remember about the AV referendum is that those who are so obsessed with this issue often tend to fail to see the bigger picture. PR would be a god-send though, of course.

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A lot of negativity on here towards UKIP. However their central policy (withdrawal from the EU as the EU is on an irrevocable course towards a federal superstate which is not in the UK's interests to be a part of) has widespread support among the British public.

Your point being?

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If the polls are still displaying roughly the same picture on May 7th 2015 as they are now then will anyone really bother doing an exit poll?

In 2010 the final polls all had the Lib Dems significantly higher and Labour significantly lower than the exit poll and the final results.

yes,  I remember Election Night Special that year, they spent nearly an hour discussing what might have  caused the exit poll to be so far off until it emerged that it was spot on and the LibDems were actually losing seats.

Indeed. Listen to the instant disbelief about the LD number.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-G4_y_2K_E#t=4m50s