UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

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I hold the view that Diane James would be a more successful leader; she comes across as a Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond.

The Marine Le Pen to Farage's Jean-Marie Le Pen?

Nah. Farage isn't quite JMLP yet and Diane James is probably way more moderate and level headed than MLP.

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If the Libs honestly think they've got a chance in Hornsey and Dunbarton, then... well, I think they'll be more than shell shocked on election night.

To fall from 24% to 7-10%, then votes need to be being lost somewhere. I mean, how do they explain adding votes on last time and still losing seats?

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If the Libs honestly think they've got a chance in Hornsey and Dunbarton, then... well, I think they'll be more than shell shocked on election night.

To fall from 24% to 7-10%, then votes need to be being lost somewhere. I mean, how do they explain adding votes on last time and still losing seats?

And while I'm on the topic, ComRes released a poll of the SW Con-LD marginals (ahem, stay with me) showing them down 22%. Not sure what seats they polled though.

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Another YouGov Wales poll: Labour 40, Con 23, UKIP 13, Plaid 12, LDem 6, Greens 4

Insert the usual remarks.

If this is to be believed:

Labour, Lib Dems and UKIP are level on the YouGov March poll; Conservatives and Greens down one; Plaid up three.

What does everyone think of the YouGov nowcast - is it actually worth anything, or is it just a bit of fun?

Just a bit've fun, but then most forecasts usually are.

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Drinking game: shot every time someone says 'too-close-to-call' between now and about 3-4am on May 8th.

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Stinks of more Crosby Australian tactics. I'm not 100% this'll work as well in the UK.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E01-LvLOBLA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HfRyjfsw8Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4v5QxX8rHPk

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The upcoming YouGov poll is being hyped up.

Tories on 38% apparently.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/590622405162315776

The woozle that wasn't.

Hyped up because it's the first Tory lead with them in a good while.

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Most of the people who will be voting Green this time will have voted for the LibDems (not Labour) in 2010. I'm still not sure how they'll do in actual percentage terms, and it is worth noting that if they poll a solid thousand votes in a lot of places but no more, that could still be a lot of money they'll be shelling out in lost deposits.

I think from the LibDem experience in 2010 and the general demographic of Green voters, there's some chance they're overpolling. A lot won't turn up on the day.

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LMFAO a Young Tory in his twenties tried to start a Cameronettes fandom claiming to be a  thirteen year old girl. You can't just beat that grassroots Milifandom Tories,

Tory Future are an interesting bunch.

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I almost don't know why I'm posting this as it's a) by ComRes and b) is a marginals poll (urgh). But because I'm good to you...

This is apparently a poll of UKIP target seats.* Results and changes on 2010 are:

Conservatives 39% (-7.3)
Labour 28% (+1.7)
UK Independence Party 21% (+15.4)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-10.2)
Green Party 4% (+3.6)
Others 3% (-0.8)

As all of these are coastal (well... estuarial in a couple of cases but that's close enough...) there's plenty of salt around to help those numbers go down!

_{*South Thanet, Boston and Skegness, Thurrock, Forest of Dean, Great Yarmouth, North Thanet, East Worthing and Shoreham, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, South Basildon and East Thurrock, and Castle Point.}

This does not look very good for the purple peril at first sight, but surely those constituencies are too heterogeneous for this to be a sensible poll, even if the sampling is competent?

http://news.sky.com/story/1324855/ukip-poll-reveals-12-most-wanted-seats

They're all the Tory seats that UKIP named as targets last year.

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Monster Raving Loony is running in 16 constituencies.

FF

Who're they backing in a hung parliament?

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With the election being so close in the PV this time, the selective polling from people on social media has been taken to a new level.

Labourites love YouGov, Tories love ICM.

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some insanity from the Express

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If every party based their targets off 'the kind've conversations activists have on the doorstep', they'd all think UKIP'd sweep 400 seats.

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To put a new spin on an old cliche, the only poll that really matters for the pollsters is the one they do 2-3 days before May 7th anyway.

Find me a company that's never published an outlier.

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A company that has never done that is one that is committing fraud on a daily basis. As has been seen in America.

Nevertheless, Survation is a very sketchy/incompetent (no idea which, don't care either) outfit who's findings should not be trusted and that all psephology nerds should fervently hope goes out of business after this election...

Yeah, they've been one of the sillier companies to emerge since last time. Still say you can't go wrong with Yougov/ICM/Ipsos.

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Angus Reid was a mess. Made PB.com go from a joke to a farce. 'CAMERON STILL ON FOR 50+ MAJORITY'.

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The LibDems are going to dropkick Clegg after the election, right? I can't imagine why they would keep him around.

If he wants to go with any dignity, he'd resign as leader on the Friday morning, before Labour has the chance to call for his head.

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More Ashcroft polls.

Bristol West: Labour 13 points ahead of Green, 18 ahead of incumbent Lib Dem
Bristol NW: Tories 9 points ahead of Labour
Rochester & Strood: Tories 3 points ahead of UKIP
Thurrock: UKIP 4 points ahead of Lab, 5 ahead of Con
High Peak: Con 2 ahead of Lab
Colne Valley: Con 2 ahead of Lab

All margin of error stuff except the two Bristol seats, where West is horrible for the Lib Dems (that's a 19% swing from LD to Lab) and NW disappointing for Labour.

Caveats as usual.

The Bristol poll will give heart to other Labour Student Ghetto candidates.

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The Bristol 'West' figures are striking, but then that can't be an easy seat to poll so... mind you, that goes for most of the set chosen this time; e.g. Thurrock, High Peak and Colne Valley are all made up of quite distinct areas with differing temperaments.

Labour's Bristol West candidate has a rather interesting name.

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I do hope the BBC's election night coverage will focus on, you know, the results this time. Last time it was awful - mostly a combination of Andrew Neil on a boat (interviewing people even more obxious than he) and empty speculation about post-election deals. Oh yeah, and no end of talk about voting problems in Sheffield.

But I feel that it could actually be worse this time.

I do think the narrative of the night will be the SNP. Last time it was the LibDem failure to live up to the polls. As soon as the exit poll came out, I remember Dimbleby being like "well with that LD result, take that with a pinch of salt", and it turned out to be mostly correct and we got to see Clegg on the verge of tears at his count (imagine him this time, ay).

The election deal chatter may be less speculative this time, since we basically know who's gonna go with who, so it's a bit more about parties hitting their targets. If Labour's at about 265 or more, they're in, if the Tories are anywhere north of 280-285, they can just about squeeze back in. Clegg saying he won't touch the SNP with a barge poll basically implies he'll go with the Tories, surely (although, he's not a man averse to breaking his word, as we know).

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Galloway will be reelected.

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Galloway will be reelected.

And if he is, Labour will probably take it to court over 'false statements' made about that the arranged marriage.

Don't feed the troll.

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In its manifesto the SNP calls for Proportional Representation.  I wonder if the huge SNP delegation about to come in will still be in favor of PR with many of the new MP's only elected because of FPTP.  Also, would they insist on some type of Labour move toward it as a price for their support? 

Well, since they've already said they definitely won't back the Tories, Labour don't have to give them anything.

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Surely, lets look at the Ascroft poll. No-one expects labour to get 30%, I mean that's a 1% improvement on 2010, it can't be that bad,

I don't like this argument. You can't base your opinion of an opinion poll on a 'feeling' that Labour has to be above a certain %.

I could easily say that the SNP surely can't be above 50%, but I'm not the one with a big polling firm at my disposal to ask.

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SNP

As a lapsed Tory, how do you think you'll feel if they put Ed into No10?