What will the map look like if the country is....

[pbrower2a]

Here's mine, the barest of Obama wins that makes any sense (D+0):

Obama/Biden 272

Romney/???   266

Democrats have a razor-thin margin in the Senate, having lost two seats. The GOP majority in the House is shrunk significantly because wave elections as a rule are largely undone in even elections.

Barest loss (R+0):

2012:

Romney/???   272
Obama/Biden 266

Either way, Iowa is the last state to be decided. Rationale: without the ethanol subsidy (a likely GOP target), Iowa gets shakier than New Hampshire. As I see it, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico are more solid D now than Iowa; Iowa is more rural than New Hampshire, and Obama does less well to the extent that a state is rural.  Romney is the only GOP nominee who can get this result.  The Republicans probably have lost little in the House, but have won a bare majority in the Senate.

[pbrower2a]

D+3

Obama/Biden 332

Romney/???   206

This is similar to 2008, although I figure that President Obama has made his biggest gains (none enough to win) in the South. More states are closer, but even with a higher percentage of the total vote he still loses Indiana and NE-02.

R+3

Romney/???   285
Obama/Biden 253

Structural weaknesses of the GOP keep it from winning as many electoral votes with a 53-47 split of the vote as does Obama with 53% of the vote. There are just too few states close to being pick-ups for the GOP from the barest of wins. Obama wins every state that he won by 10%  or more in 2008, but by narrower margins -- but nothing else. America's political culture has not changed.

The GOP has a clear majority in the Senate and may have kept most of its 2008 gains in the House.    Democrats are looking forward to 2016.

[pbrower2a]

You didn't ask for D+5 or D-5, but here is D+5 (which I think is easy) are instead of D+7 and R+7, which is fairly easy.  R+5 looks much like R+3 anyway except that CO and NH definitely goes to the Republican and maybe one or two of Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and I wouldn't have any idea of which to pick.

D+5 (beyond which things get speculative)

Obama/Biden 381

Whoever?      157

At this point, Obama wins everything that he won in 2008 and picks up Georgia (military success in Afghanistan makes this national margin (55-45) possible. To the surprise of many, President Obama now has a majority in the House and has picked up a couple of Senate seats.    

R+7

Romney/???   330
Obama/Biden 228

Something has gone very wrong for the Obama Administration, and it won't be around to pick up the pieces. This shows a failed Administration or the success of the GOP in convincing Americans that a corporatist agenda is the best thing that could ever happen or that the Religious Right has had a national Revival that convinces people to vote for "God and GOP". Pennsylvania, Minnesota (which shows how things have gone -- the state hadn't voted for any Republican nominee since the Nixon blowout in 1972) go for the Republican nominee.
The GOP has won several Senate seats, including almost everything that the Democrats flipped in 2006. The GOP is close to a filibuster-proof Senate and has extended its lead in the House, if slightly.

The Democrats have some soul-searching to do if they are to ever have influence in America. America is almost a single-party state because the GOP is such a monolith. Olympia Snowe has been tea-bagged, and the GOP has won the seat.   Democrats are now almost completely unable to achieve anything except where they have machine control of communities.  Liberals begin to abandon just about everything but college towns and giant cities, where they (1) have no cause to fear state and local police, (2) where they won't be discriminated against in jobs, as it helps to be a 'conservative' Republican just to get a job as a checkout worker in a box store, and (3) where they have a chance to reshape some little part of the world.  

[pbrower2a]

OK -- I'm going to try D-10 and R-10.

Obama/Biden 504

Whoever?      34

At D+10 (Texas is on the margin at D+7) one sees an electoral disaster for Republicans. John Thune  wins his own state, but every other imaginable GOP nominee loses his own state. Mike Huckabee has too high a floor of electoral votes to lose this badly, so he isn't the sacrificial lamb in this scenario. It's hard to see President Obama doing appreciably better in the Democratic firewall, so his gains reflect that the states that Bill Clinton won and Obama lost are going for him. Enough white votes go for Obama because he has proved that even if he is black, he's not the sort of black man that they fear that he picks up Mississippi and comes close to winning Alabama.   The GOP is having trouble protecting its Senate incumbents in the South in the definitive realignment election.

The Republican nominee wins Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Oklahoma, Alabama, and the Third Congressional District of Nebraska. Thune wins South Dakota but loses North Dakota decisively.  

  

R+10

This is an electoral disaster for the Democrats in about every possible aspect. The Democrats have lost almost every Senate seat up for grabs, and the GOP has probably doubled its hold on the House. California. Illinois, and New York might almost vote for the President -- but "almost" means "not" in politics.  The Republicans probably maxed out in a bunch of states in 2008, so their gains will be in states that voted for Obama by wide margins.

Dictator  or his stooge        303
Obama/Biden                        35

The GOP is not a democratic party; it is a near-monolith. People not associated with the core elites of the GOP are going to get burned until either a revolution, a military coup,  or a military debacle.  A flurry of Constitutional amendments might ensue with all sorts of mischief.      

The one good result will be that intelligent Americans will redevelop interest in learning foreign languages, which might be good for learning to appreciate Pushkin, Gogol, Chekhov, Dostoevsky, Tolstoy, Pasternak, and Solzhenitsyn in the original Russian. That might not be the sole purpose. Some might seek to read Lenin in the original Russian. America is about to have Gilded Age economics with teeth. Of you have loved San Francisco, then you might contemplate Lisbon.