Governors' statewide popularity

[pbrower2a]

For a Republican Governor of a very Democratic state, Susana Martinez is doing very well.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_705.pdf

For a Democratic Governor of a marginally-D state (or really in any state), Governor Lynch is doing very well

Gov. Lynch (NH):

65% Approve
23% Disapprove

http://www.wmur.com/r/28490625/detail.html

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  14%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         294
GOP advantage                                             158      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 70


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 14
Modest 44
Huge 226

[pbrower2a]

There was a joke poll on the President in Florida... and this pollster has an unusually sunny view of Governor Rick Scott, at least if one looks at the prose in the analysis. But I can't see how even Doctor Pangloss (Candide by Voltaire is essential reading if you don't get the reference) could see any sunny side of this poll:

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(Snide comment: an alligator bite isn't always lethal, but it often has bad effects. Amputation of a bitten arm or leg is a common treatment of an alligator bite)  

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Yeah, sure... win a bare plurality and then pull a bait-and-switch on the electorate. After you get the Zonk on Let's Make a Deal, you usually get to move on. But such is not so with a Governor, a four-year mistake. Florida voters got the Zonk, and instead of a barnyard animal that one can still return for a little bit of cash one gets a firm supporter of crony capitalism that degrades the state.

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If you want to see more of this incredible writing, then look here:

http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/gov-rick-scott-tough-road-reform

Reform? Florida will be interested in some big reform in 2014 unless it has a recall mechanism like that in California that unseated Gray Davis and might depose Scott Walker in Wisconsin. Florida voters would probably amputate this Governor out of politics if they got the chance.

The gap is so large that nobody can spin it.

Another "Zonk", this one you-know-who in Wisconsin:

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Bad formatting... but 37% approve, 59% disapprove.

http://www.uwsc.wisc.edu/BP32PressRelease1_WIpols_FINAL.pdf

Badger Poll, from the University of Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania again, PPP, and back underwater:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_714.pdf



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 14
Modest 44
Huge 246

[pbrower2a]

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Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 14
Modest 44
Huge 246

[pbrower2a]

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Abrasive personalities disappoint the electorate when things go badly.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 44
Huge 260

[pbrower2a]

No, I meant (like I said before) that he flipped blue and red here:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow. 

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Chris Christie’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 43%
Disapprove...................................................... 53%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Corzine?
Favorable........................................................ 39%
Unfavorable .................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q3 If you could do the 2009 election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Republican
Chris Christie or Democrat Jon Corzine?
Chris Christie .................................................. 48%
Jon Corzine..................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Abrasive personalities disappoint the electorate when things go badly.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 44
Huge 260


Fixed! Thank you.

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1625

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 44
Huge 260


Fixed! Thank you.

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Utah, PPP, Governor. The great mystery of the ages is resolved!

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_UT_0722.pdf

Uh, no.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             144      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 21
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 44
Huge 260

[pbrower2a]

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Governor McDonnell is either acting as a moderate or leaving the dirty work to others. Nothing has changed. Virginia is NOT a right-wing state anymore:

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This is very poor for someone who wields much power in Congress John Boehner has much the same problem in Ohio.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_7291118.pdf

MN: Mark Dayton (D)

Gov. Mark Dayton has come out of the state government shutdown with Minnesotans evenly split on his job performance.

40 percent approve of his work, 40 percent disapprove and 20 percent have no opinion, according to a poll done for MinnPost.com by Daves & Associates Research.

http://www.minnpost.com/stories/2011/07/29/30417/minnpost_poll_minnesotans_evenly_split_on_daytons_job_performance

Budgetary squabbles in rough times are not good for gubernatorial popularity.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MI_728.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         304
GOP advantage                                             144      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 21
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 44
Huge 250

[pbrower2a]

We now have a picture of gubernatorial approval of all partisan Governors  east of the Mississippi but two, one of those states now being polled:

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(Anticlimactic drum-roll!)

It's Vermont. Were you expecting Indiana, which might really be interesting? Or even Alabama?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VT_0803513.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         307
GOP advantage                                             144      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 21
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 47
Huge 250

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1631

Seems unlikely -- but the end of the budgetary process may have led to less polarizing results than poison state politics in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, or Wisconsin. Governors gain politically by acting like adults.


pdmurray@monmouth.edu

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Is there any question that the budgeting process creates trouble for a Governor in a state politically polarized or a Governor facing a hostile state legislature, and that if the budgetary process turns out well the Governor is in good shape?

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1634

Comment: Andrew Cuomo seems like Presidential material already.

Now for a real turkey, and I doubt that anyone can see him as Presidential material --

August 5, 2011 - Florida Gov's Approval Goes From Terrible To Bad, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Caylee's Law 6-1

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1633


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Seems unlikely -- but the end of the budgetary process may have led to less polarizing results than poison state politics in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, or Wisconsin.

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         273
GOP advantage                                             137      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 55
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 47
Huge 216

[pbrower2a]

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Funny name, good results.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_0811925.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Seems unlikely -- but the end of the budgetary process may have led to less polarizing results than poison state politics in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, or Wisconsin.

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         273
GOP advantage                                             137      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 55
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 47
Huge 216
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

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Gigantic improvement in his position after the recall vote.  Winning -- sort of -- helps.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_0816925.pdf

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Very poor, but unambiguous improvement for an embattled Governor.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_0812.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Seems unlikely -- but the end of the budgetary process may have led to less polarizing results than poison state politics in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, or Wisconsin.

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         273
GOP advantage                                             137      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 55
Slight 50


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 57
Huge 206

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_0818.pdf

Still horrid.

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On the margin, but Branstad would now win again:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_0826.pdf

The Republican Governor of Iowa has gained some credibility.

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The right Democrat can win Kentucky's eight electoral votes, as shown by the popularity of the Democratic Governor. I doubt that it is President Obama, though.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         267
GOP advantage                                             143      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 55
Slight 56


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 51
Huge 206

A prediction: we will soon see how some of the governors from North Carolina northward fare in the aftermath of Hurricane Irene.  All of the states that got more than a glancing blow from Hurricane Irene (that excludes Florida and South Carolina) voted for President Obama in 2008. Including DC (which isn't going to vote for any Republican in 2012), the thirteen states and DC comprise 140 electoral votes.     

[pbrower2a]

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Not too bad. No change, really. At least she is not this:

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Happy "trails" to you... and don't meet us again!

Don't cry for me, Argentina! the truth is, I never left you!

The "right" Democrat could win in South Carolina:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_0902925.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             152      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 55
Slight 47


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 9
Modest 51
Huge 206

A prediction: we will soon see how some of the governors from North Carolina northward fare in the aftermath of Hurricane Irene.  All of the states that got more than a glancing blow from Hurricane Irene (that excludes Florida and South Carolina) voted for President Obama in 2008. Including DC (which isn't going to vote for any Republican in 2012), the thirteen states and DC comprise 140 electoral votes.    

[pbrower2a]

PPP, WV

The "right" Democrat could win in West Virginia:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WV_0907925.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 55
Slight 47


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 9
Modest 51
Huge 206

[pbrower2a]

MAJOR improvement for Governor Bev Perdue in North Carolina (PPP)

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Why?

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_0908424.pdf

Such is the acid test of a Governor as an administrator. I would expect the same all the way up the East Coast irrespective of partisan affiliation.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 40
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 9
Modest 51
Huge 206

[pbrower2a]

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I see no indication that Governor McDonnell handled the hurricane threat and damage any less well than Governor Bev Perdue in neighboring North Carolina. He might rescue the GOP in 2016 should 2012 prove a debacle for the Republican nominee for President.  So far he is a good administrator who doesn't shoot his mouth off.

Democratic Senators are doing fine there, and Quinnipiac releases a poll on approval for the President on September 15 at 6:30 EST. 

Now for Missouri, usually a good indicator of America as a whole:

Missouri Survey Results

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_0914513.pdf

Nothing really changes for either state.

New poll for Oregon Governor.

http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2011/09/in_surveys_oregon_government_d.html

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Direct link to poll: http://news.opb.org/media/uploads/pdf/2011/091211_mediapartners_annot.pdf

Very good!
 

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 40
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 9
Modest 51
Huge 206

[pbrower2a]

Assuming that President Obama has two full terms as President, this fellow could be next:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1647

This may be more relevant to 2016 than to 2012 (New York is a slam dunk for President Obama or else he is through). Now for someone running against President Obama in 2012:

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--------------------------


Quinnipiac, Florida: Rick Scott remains in "execrable" territory:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1649

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 40
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 206

[pbrower2a]

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Awful! That's almost the realm of Rick Scott, Scott Walker, and John Kasich. Don't expect him to be a featured speaker at the Democratic National Convention next year or to appear on the same stage as President Obama.  

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Fading in significance.  

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CT_0929424.pdf

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 94
Modest 33
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 206

[pbrower2a]

I'm new to this, so why isn't RI white?

The governor Lincoln Chaffee is an independent, so he cannot offer partisan advantage for any nominee. DC has no Governor, so it is also in white.

white -- no governor,  Independent governor, or an exact  tie.

[pbrower2a]

I'm new to this, so why isn't RI white?

RI is white.

Anyways, Iowa is inconsistent. On the first map it is 20 or 30% green, so on the second map it should be 20 or 30% red, not blue.

Corrected in the latest map. Thank you.

[pbrower2a]

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From the atrocious to the execrable. Wow!

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It's possible to warm up a bit to a lemon as you try to pretend that what you thought was an astute purchase wasn't so bad after all. But not much. Oh, the car was flooded and the dealer didn't tell you about that? It still has nice leg room and a good trunk.  

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Maybe he can do much good as the titular head of "Republicans for Obama". Think of Jeane Kirkpatrick or  Zell Miller at a Republican National Convention in recent years, and you get the general idea.

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Nostalgia for moderation and integrity. What a concept!

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Not far off from 2008 results. 2010 was very different.  

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 94
Modest 33
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 206
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

West Virginia

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/west-virginia-race-looking-too-close-to-call.html

Not "too close to call" anymore! Governor Tomblin won.

http://wvgazette.com/News/201110042458

Because the re-election of a Governor suggests that people already know him there is no need to restart the  map for a state. Note that I accepted the continuation of the approval ratings of re-elected Governors earlier and still do.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 94
Modest 33
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 206

[pbrower2a]

Not "too close to call" anymore! Governor Tomblin won.

http://wvgazette.com/News/201110042458

Because the re-election of a Governor suggests that people already know him there is no need to restart the  map for a state. Note that I accepted the continuation of the approval ratings of re-elected Governors earlier and still do.

This one is straightforward (Maryland):

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.

http://www.gonzalesresearch.com/polls/Maryland%20Poll%20October%202011.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         286
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 94
Modest 33
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 216

[pbrower2a]

New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie would have won, Garden State voters say, but they back his decision not to run for president 8-1. They seem glad to be stuck with him and give him a 58 - 38 percent job approval rating, his best score ever, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. A big swing from women lifts him from a 47 - 46 percent score August 17.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1660

Currently, Governor Christie earns a 54% approve to 38% disapprove job rating among all
Garden State residents. Among registered voters, his rating stands at 55% approve to 37% disapprove.
This is the highest rating he has ever received in the Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll, topping
the 50% he received among registered voters in early August.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP41_1.pdf

All above 15%, so it is all a matter of taste -- and the applicable rule would give the same result on the map.


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         286
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 94
Modest 33
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 216

[/quote]