Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[pbrower2a]

June 26-29, 2014
Survey of 664 Louisiana voters

information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Q13
Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Louisiana, or not?
32%
Think it should be allowed
...............................
55%
Think it should not be
......................................
13%
Not sure
.......................................................

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

Red -- opposition to SSM stronger than support.

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Utah is going directly to the nation's highest court to challenge an appellate ruling that gay couples have a constitutional right to marry, the state attorney general's office announced Wednesday.

If the U.S. Supreme court decides to take the case, it will be the first time the top court considers gay marriage since justices last year struck down part of the federal Defense of Marriage Act.

"It is a milestone that when the Supreme Court reconvenes in October, there will be at least one (gay marriage) petition pending," said Jon Davidson, director of Lambda Legal, which pursues litigation on LGBT issues nationwide.

The high court is under no obligation to the take the case, and it could wait for rulings from one or more of the five other appellate courts with gay marriage cases pending, legal scholars say.

But legal experts predict the nation's top court will consider a gay marriage case sometime in 2015 or later.

.....

The 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals heard arguments about Virginia's ban in early May, and a ruling is expected soon. Arguments are scheduled for August and September in two different courts for cases out of Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Nevada and Idaho.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/09/utah-gay-marriage_n_5571647.html

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_26118709/adams-judge-tosses-colorado-gay-marriage-ban-but

[pbrower2a]

Colorado.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Tan -- a state's appeal vacated at the Federal District Court, next step the US Supreme Court

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM


65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

Red -- opposition to SSM stronger than support.

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

"Saturation" means intensity or darkness of color."1" is practically white; "2" and "3" are pastel shades; "4", "5", and "6" are middling shades; "7", "8", and "9" are dark to nearly-black.

For "no color" (gray) no distinction is possible.     

[pbrower2a]

Pbrower, I genuinely appriciate the work you do on these maps, but they're completely unintelligible.

1. Legality of SSM is white.  No further distinction in approval or disapproval of SSM is shown. Local officials are required to accept applications for SSM for adults unless there is some obvious bar as insanity or incestuousness.

This does not mean solely that places under federal jurisdiction within a state (such as military bases or Indian reservations) recognize SSM. If Arizona state law prohibits SSM but Indian reservations or military bases allow SSM in accordance with federal law, then the polling applies to the state.

A state could go to some other color from white if the state outlaws SSM through legislation or initiative/referendum -- but that is highly unlikely.

2. If SSM is not legal, then a green shade applies to that state should there be plurality support of SSM. More intense shades imply stronger approval. A red shade applies to any state in which extant polling shows that SSM has greater disapproval than approval, more intense shades indicating stronger disapproval. Yellow is for a tie.

The rationale of the distinction  is that states in green could approve same-sex marriage either through legislation or initiative/referendum -- which would not happen in a state in which SSM has stronger disapproval than approval. We may see 'evolution' in the process, which is possible.

3. Blue and orange are for legal limbo. The decision is likely to be made in state or federal courts. Blue (Colorado) indicates that there is an appeal, but it is presumed that SSM could be approved by legislation or referendum before an appeal is completed. Orange indicates that legalization is unlikely based upon the most recent polls (Arkansas) or what I reasonably assume (Idaho). Tan indicates that the appeal is going to the US Supreme Court, whose decision is definitive no matter what polls indicate.

4. It all goes white if some ruling analogous to Loving v. Virginia is made by the US Supreme Court. The Supreme Court does not heed polls.       

[pbrower2a]

Might I humbly suggest just tracking popularity/approval of same-sex marriage by state?

Legality of same-sex marriage, or court rulings that might reflect this legality, could be considered a separate issue and included on a map of "legal status of same-sex marriage." This would really simplify the map. Plus it would be interesting to know, say, whether Iowans have come around to the policies their state supreme court imposed on them, or whether they continue to resist.

You are welcome to start your 'rival' map.

[pbrower2a]

The Conch (Republic) speaks!

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/17/florida-gay-marriage-ban_n_5596032.html?utm_hp_ref=gay-voices&ir=Gay%20Voices

(It applies only to Monroe County, and not statewide).

[pbrower2a]

Keep your version of 'God's law' for your own denomination and congregation, thank yoy; the Crusades ended centuries ago.

''My version''? There's really only one way to interpret this:

''Thou shalt not lie with mankind, as with womankind: it is abomination.'' - Leviticus 18:22

This law may be from the Old Testament, but it still applies today because it is a moral law, as opposed to a ceremonial law (such as the prohibition on eating pork, for example).

Obsolete concern.

Male homosexuality was a threat to an adequate birthrate. It was assumed that male homosexuality would prove an attractive alternative to procreative sex with a wife that makes children possible. Add to that, much  of the homosexuality in non-Jewish cultures was associated with temple prostitution, a genuine abomination to Jews because such was typically a sacrifice to some God other than The One.  

Ancient societies needed high birthrates simply to offset the severe losses from plagues and famines -- and of course a very high death rate among children. That is over.

The people who should know, the Jews, seem relatively liberal on homosexuality... so long as it does not involve minors, rape, or temple prostitution. Christians who wish to interpret the Old Testament for their own ethical values might as well ask the experts -- contemporary Jews who know what the traditions are and which ones are still valid.

[pbrower2a]

Marquette University, Wisconsin

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https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Just because the U.S. is currently a secular society doesn't mean it should be.

Which sect other than yours would you prefer established the rules by which we are all to go?

We have a secular society because we could never decide upon a dominant religion.

[pbrower2a]

I know why you don't include data on states with SSM, but I think it would make the map more interesting to start including it. Just my opinion.

Here is how it started nearly three years ago (August 2011):

Here is a gay marriage map of recent state polling by PPP and others:

Note:

The NY polls are from Quinnipiac and Marist, both of them showed support for gay marriage above 50%.

The CT poll is from Quinnipiac.

The MD poll is from the Washington Post.

Red favors SSM and blue shows disfavor on the oldest map. Green shows a tie.

The map that I show shows states with legal SSM statewide in white. I would show  the status of polls if there were some legal effort to rescind a decision -- which in practice is shown where an appeal stays the legalization of SSM.

White on my maps means 'likely to stay' in practice. Show evidence to the contrary for any state and I will adjust. A poll after legalization might be interesting, but it is likely irrelevant. Entrenched law makes public opinion irrelevant.

[pbrower2a]

A judge in Miami-Dade County concurs with a judge in Monroe County.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/breakingnews/os-gay-marriage-ban-florida-dade-overturned-20140725,0,2555350.story

Florida may be next. The state will have to deal with the constitutionality of SSM.

[pbrower2a]

4th Circuit Court, MD/NC/VA/WV

Richmond Times-Dispatch

RICHMOND — A federal appeals court panel today struck down Virginia’s ban on same-sex marriage.

In a 2-1 decision, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals judges upheld U.S. Judge Arenda L. Wright Allen's ruling in February that the 2006 amendment to the state Constitution defining marriage as between a man and a woman violates the equal protection clause under the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.

The decision will not take effect immediately. It will go into effect in 21 days, unless the defendants file a motion to stay the ruling – which they are likely to do. The case will then head to the U.S. Supreme Court for review.  

Today’s decision is significant because it also renders unconstitutional similar marriage bans in North Carolina, South Carolina and West Virginia – states that are part of the 4th Circuit. Same-sex marriage is already legal in Maryland, which is also in the circuit.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/virginia-politics/appeals-court-strikes-down-va-same-sex-marriage-ban/article_0a448216-167c-11e4-8f75-0017a43b2370.html

[pbrower2a]

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

In view of the decisions of the 4th Federal Circuit Court, tan for states in which states have until August 18, 2014 in which to appeal the decision: 

[pbrower2a]

Another map for your convenience.

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district:

I do not know the status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, Guam, or the Northern Marianas.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit
7th circuit
8th circuit
9th circuit
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd circuit courts have legalized SSM.

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/28/north-carolina-gay-marriage_n_5628129.html

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

In view of the decisions of the 4th Federal Circuit Court, tan for states in which states have until August 18, 2014 in which to appeal the decision:  

[pbrower2a]

It sounded like a surrender.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/28/north-carolina-gay-marriage_n_5628129.html

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

In view of the decisions of the 4th Federal Circuit Court, tan for states in which states have until August 18, 2014 in which to appeal the decision:  

Not sure why you made NC white, Cooper has stated he will no longer defend the legal challenges to the law in court, but same-sex marriage is still not legal in N.C

Correction made. One surrender by one elected official may not be enough.

[pbrower2a]

The Boston Globe just had a poll of Massachusetts on acceptance of SSM.

77% favor
17% disfavor
5% don't know

http://c.o0bg.com/rw/Boston/2011-2020/2014/07/31/BostonGlobe.com/Metro/Graphics/Topline.pdf

It seems that the earthquakes, the tidal waves, and Boston being obliterated like Sodom and Gomorrah for acceptance of SSM never happened. SSM seems to be the sort of thing that people accept once it is entrenched.

[pbrower2a]

But why bring it up? You said SSM states would no longer count in your maps.

I brought it up as an illustration of why approval for SSM need not be shown in states that have legalized it.

It illustrates why approval of SSM in a State that already has it does not belong on the map, and why I did not show it on the map. It is enough that SSM is legal in Massachusetts.

Once entrenched in law, SSM is unlikely to go away.  Of course if there were some legislative attempt or a referendum to abolish SSM, then approval would become relevant again. I do not see that happening in any state with SSM.

Approval is relevant in states in which SSM is not yet fully legal. The map suggests that SSM has more ways in which it can be legalized in such a state as Colorado than in neighboring Wyoming. In Colorado, means of legalizing SSM would seem to include a referendum (it would likely pass), legislative action, refusal of the Governor to appeal, or a definitive decision of the court that denies all appeals. In Wyoming such would take a huge change in public opinion before any method other than a definitive decision beyond any appeal.

Of course the 10th Circuit can establish the law for Colorado and Wyoming simultaneously. Likewise, the legal status of SSM could be decided simultaneously in such disparate states as Michigan and Tennessee together.

As for a Governor refusing to make further appeals -- a Republican Governor can decide that resistance to SSM might be unwise. Governors of Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin might be in that position at some time.  

[pbrower2a]

If I got such a poll I would have no qualms about anyone showing it as a poll. Likewise for any state that has SSM.

SSM looks like an unqualified success where it is in effect. It's likely rare and it seems harmless. 

[pbrower2a]

All but over in Virginia. Virginia will soon be for lovers even if same sex.

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/13/virginia-gay-marriage_n_5675326.html?utm_hp_ref=gay-voices&ir=Gay%20Voices

Waiting until Wednesday (expiration of the appeal) to white-out Virginia on the map.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

In view of the decisions of the 4th Federal Circuit Court, tan for states in which states have until August 18, 2014 in which to appeal the decision:  

[pbrower2a]

National poll, for what it is worth:

51% believe that legalization of same-sex marriage (SSM)  is rightly the purview of the federal government; 44% believe that it is a state issue.

50% of those who oppose legalization of SSM believe that the issue is best decided by States.

64% of Democrats and 52% of independents favor settling SSM at the federal level. 59% or Republicans favor leaving it to the States.

54% of Americans favor the legalization of SSM. 62% of Democrats favor legalization of SSM;  63% of Republicans oppose doing so. 65% of Americans under 45 years of age support legalization of SSM;  only 44% of Americans 45 or older support legalizing SSM.

12% of Americans have changed their attitudes toward SSM -- but it is a lopsided 11-1 gap between those who have come to support legalization after having opposed it and those who used to support it who now oppose it.

71% of Americans now know someone homosexual. 83% would not reject voting for a Congressional candidates who admit being homosexual. 62% of Americans would not be strongly upset to find that a son or daughter is homosexual.   

 

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/815-views-on-same-sex-marriage-supporters-look-to-feds-opponents-more-to-states/

[pbrower2a]

62% of Americans would not be strongly upset to find that a son or daughter is homosexual.  

Only 62% would not be strongly upset? That's horrible numbers. Disgusting actually. And if anything these are underestimations as most respondents want to appear as desirable and politically correct as possible. Perhaps the real world is closer to 50/50. With 50% only being moderately upset (or not at all) and 50% being either strongly or extremely strongly upset. Like those who cut off all contact with their child after learning such. Unfortunately that happens with a lot more people than we like to think about. That's what religion does with people... Only religion can make people cut contact with their own child(ren).

Religion? No -- it is a primal concern about passing down genes, something deep in the irrational subconscious. Religion often manipulates the subconscious, and not always for the best. Cutting off relatives for something so lacking in culpability as homosexuality is irrational, as is cutting off relatives for abandoning the religious fold or marrying out of the group. Homophobia is not strictly a religious decision, although some religious bodies are undeniably intolerant of homosexuality. There's a huge difference between the Anglican communion and (at worst) the infamous Westboro Baptist Church, best known for godh@tesf@gs.

Most who wouldn't be strongly upset would probably sympathize with homosexual offspring after learning that everything other than homosexuality is normal. Homosexuality is not a choice; it is a fact. Nobody knows a cause.

Other things could be far more troubling. Consider:

1. General delinquency, including gang activity.
2. Drug use.
3. Alcoholism.
4. Pathological gambling
5. Involvement in extremist causes (including godh@tesf@gs)
6. Elder abuse
7. Spouse or child abuse
8. Mental illness
9. Financial recklessness