Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[pbrower2a]

Indiana Family Institution is a right-wing, Christian fundamentalist group. As such its polling could be suspect. I notice that its headlines include:


Iowa Small Business Owners Sued for not Promoting Homosexuality...Is Indiana Next?
October 11, 2013
Author: Ryan.McCann
Poll Shows Strong Support for Marriage Amendment among Hoosier Voters
October 10, 2013
Author: Ryan.McCann
The Social Costs of Abandoning the Meaning of Marriage
September 13, 2013
Author: Ryan.McCann
Leading Academics Can't Make the Case for Evolution
- See more at: http://www.hoosierfamily.org/#sthash.FyH5d3qA.dpuf

[pbrower2a]

Montana (MSU Billings):

47% legal
43% illegal

http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/education/new-msub-poll-reveals-montanans-opposed-shutdown-disapprove-of-obama/article_00d85a5e-ae77-5b8d-958b-3d41052cc71e.html

It would be acceptable if the results are normed so that the different populations fit the general distribution. Thus if one calls 500 people who have landlines and get a 40-60 result (for/against)  among them and 100 with cell phones only and  get a 60-40 result , and know that the split in land-line users and cell-phone users is 80-20 landlines, then one gets a 44-56 result.
I hate to be a downer, but I notice the article says they surveyed equal numbers of landline and cell phone users.  Wouldn't that mean that the cell phone users are overweighted and thus the poll skews young and thus would overstate SSM support?

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin, Marquette Law School. A regional anomaly vanishes.

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https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2013/10/29/marquette-law-school-poll-shows-walker-in-tight-race-with-burke-for-wisconsin-governor-in-2014/

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

I did clip and paste from an obsolete map. Mea culpa.

[pbrower2a]

There's no way Georgia supports Same-Sex Marriage. It shouldn't even be close too.

If black attitudes on SSM were to change to conform to Democratic orthodoxy, then yes the South could become supportive of SSM.  However, given the racial polarization of politics down here, I don't expect any change in the law down here by the GOP dominated legislatures, so the change in the law will have to wait for the Supreme Court ruling in a few years time.

Three words:

Atlanta Metropolitan Area.

The conservatives in surrounding counties, even if they are dyed-in-the-wool racists, find themselves having to deal with gays and lesbians in certain settings of business.   

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/clout/chi-gay-marriage-illinois-20131105,0,7759837.story

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Here's how I predict SSM laws will go:


Colorado, Nevada, and Oregon will likely be next. Approval over 50% implies that legislation gets passed if the relevant legislatures bring it up.

But that is as far as it goes until at least 2015. As things are, same-sex marriage will take more time. 

Several states (notably WI, MI, and VA) will legalize same-sex marriage as soon as Democrats win majorities in both Houses of the state legislature. Such will absolutely not happen until 2015, at the least. The Republican Party will continue to pay off the Fundamentalists with suppression of gay rights because those Fundamentalists don't give a d@mn about economics. Obviously. Michigan will have to dump Rick Snyder as Governor and Wisconsin will have to dump Scott Walker. Ohio and Pennsylvania are more iffy -- because support for same-sex marriage is still under 50% even if it is positive.

Count on Republicans to exploit gutter fears about same-sex marriage in 2014. Republicans will have the predictable ads that associate same-sex marriage with all sorts of horrors.

Arizona, Florida, Indiana, and Montana are more problematic. The trend has been toward support for the legalization of same-sex marriage.  The Republican Party is stronger in three of the states, but in Florida support is still underwater. That can change quickly.

New Mexico is an oddity. The state law has no ban on same-sex marriage, but no permission. New Mexico would have to enact a ban on same-sex marriage to stop it, which remains possible. Short of that New Mexico is ambiguous because support for same-sex marriage is still underwater.   

Some states are going to enact same-sex marriage with economics as a pretext. Want jobs? Then vote for same-sex marriage.  Short of an oil boom I can't think of anything more likely to create jobs -- not tax breaks, not Right to Work (for starvation wages), and not lax environmental laws.     

My estimates based on polling:

Predicted date of same-sex marriage legalization:

white -- already legal
light blue -- 2013 or 2014 -- 20% saturation     
light-medium blue 2015 or 2016 if things go right -- 40% saturation
blue 2017 or 2018 -- 60% saturation
2019 or 2020 -- 80% saturation

New Mexico has an ambiguous law

ambiguous law -- yellow


Others? All bets are off, and and same-sex marriage is more likely to be established through some court ruling. Heck, Utah goes for same-sex marriage as soon as the Mormon hierarchy so says -- but probably not before then.


40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)Here's my prediction

[pbrower2a]

I wonder what will be the first Romney state to legalize SSM.  Arizona?

Indiana -- for economic reasons.

[pbrower2a]

Florida goes slightly positive, and in a poll involving a right-wing magazine (Human Events):

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

That map looks like something out of a sci-fi novel. I guess unless you live in the underdeveloped and uncultured parts of America that cling to "guns and religion", it is now verboten to express homophobic sentiments.

Indiana is very conservative, and you can trust that people cling to 'guns and religion'.

People are catching on to the idea that homosexuality is no threat to people who have no predisposition to homosexuality.

If Republicans try to use homosexuality as a wedge issue it will backfire worse than a car whose catalytic converter has been removed. 

[pbrower2a]

The Dakotas and Nebraska could be interesting.

[pbrower2a]

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

By 2016 we could see direct initiatives legalize gay marriage in AZ, OR, NV, CO, MT, MI, OH, and FL.

OH will likely have one in 2014

In 2004 the Republicans put a "gay marriage" proposition on the ballot to bring out the fundamentalist voters, and such may have well served R politicians. In 2014 such could backfire.

[pbrower2a]

Mississippi (PPP)

Mississippi will not be among the next batch of states to legalize same-sex marriage. The most likely way in which same-sex marriage becomes lawful in Mississippi is a Supreme Court ruling analogous to Loving v. Virginia (the ruling that legalized interracial marriage in states in which it was still unlawful).

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/mississippi-miscellany.html#more

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
[

[pbrower2a]

-Colorado legalized civil unions earlier this year but voters in the state are ready to take the next step and make gay marriage legal too. 53% think it should be allowed to just 39% that think it should continue to be illegal. Among voters under the age of 45 it's a 60/32 spread in support of legalizing it. 80% of voters in the state at least support civil unions, compared to only 18% who think there shouldn't be any legal recognition at all for same sex couples. Even with Republicans there's 66% support for civil unions.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/12/colorado-miscellany.html#more

[pbrower2a]

UTAH

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http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/news/57291925-78/marriage-utah-laws-shelby.html.csp

Who'd a thunk it? It's not April Fool's day.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

You'll probably be reverting that back to dark red within hours of a few days though, tbh.

Reverting to dark red? Utah was never polled. Technically it was gray.

I make no distinctions in a state in which SSM has been legalized either through legislative process, referendum, or a court decision. If it is legal it is legal. Of course if specific legislation adjudged Constitutional should be enacted before the state is polled, then Utah goes back to gray. It's all nit-picking for now.



 

[pbrower2a]

earliest -- Oregon. Nothing in the way.

Republicans have right-wing governors and dominant state legislatures in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  The question is either

(1) when those go down, or
(2) if the Republicans (I think rashly) offer a 'gay-marriage' initiative to get right-wing voters out to vote. Such would backfire in any of the three states.

Virginia probably recognizes SSM before Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Florida, Indiana, and Ohio are really in the category with Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.   

[pbrower2a]

Eventually SSM will be seen as good for business. It is telling that in neighboring Indiana both Eli Lilly (the huge pharmaceutical company) and Cummins Diesel (diesel engine manufacturer)  both endorse a marriage-equity bill.

Right-wing Republicans still have the Religious Right to pay off for votes that aided the consolidation of right-wing legislatures, which explains why SSM is not going to pass in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.

[pbrower2a]

We went for Obama and Sherrod Brown, one of the most liberal, pro-marriage equality Senators, twice, yet a majority of Ohioans can't even their social justice changes in tact? Come on Ohio! It could be interesting to see what Kasich's approval will be going into November to see which way this amendment could go. I just wouldn't see the state voting for this amendment while re-electing Kasich or voting against the amendment while voting in FitzGerald. It will be both or neither.

I personally will be voting for the amendment, but I won't necessarily be thrilled about it. I can't emphasize enough how there needs to be a separation of church and state when it comes to marriage, yet here Kilroy comes giving churches the power to decide whether they marry same-sex couples in the state or not. She obviously did it in the best interest of having a better chance of passing, but it's still freedom restricting and gives into the Repubs. in the state.

I don't really see how it's freedom restricting. Churches should have freedom of association and all that. I mean, is there any state where churches are required to perform same-sex marriages?

I know of a preacher who refuses to marry any couple who has been cohabitating within a year. There are surely churches in which the preacher invariably refuses to solemnize an interracial marriage.

County judges or justices-of-the-peace may be obliged... but that is part of the job. 

[pbrower2a]

Ohio (PPP):

Do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to get married?

Strongly support.............................................. 28%
Somewhat support.......................................... 19% =====> 47%

Somewhat oppose .......................................... 12%
Strongly oppose.............................................. 36% =====> 48%

Q6 Thinking again about the November 2014 election, a proposal to amend the Ohio Constitution may appear on the ballot. This constitutional amendment would allow two consenting adults to be married, so long as they are not nearer of kin than second cousins, are not currently married to someone, and no religious institutions will be required to perform or recognize a marriage. If the election were held today, would you vote in favor of this amendment to the Ohio Constitution, or would you vote against it?

Strongly for ..................................................... 34%
Not so strongly for........................................... 18% =====> 52%

Strongly against .............................................. 33%
Not so strongly against ................................... 5%  =====> 38%

https://freedomohio.com/poll

So Ohians oppose SSM 48-47, but would vote to allow it 52-38?

They might not like SSM, but they would be willing to vote to legalize it. It is law and not public opinion that determines whether SSM is legal. An initiative that would legalize SSM  would legalize the marriage of two men or two women.  Plenty of behavior is lawful that many people dislike -- let us say interracial marriage. 

I'm going for support of a law trumping 'like' or 'dislike'. One can be for SSM in principle but not like the idea of one's son marrying a man or one's daughter marrying a woman.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSN

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

As a rule I do not predict the outcome of trials or court decisions because courts can act capriciously. With that caveat

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/25/gay-marriage-state-courts_n_4501577.html

[pbrower2a]

Utah -- SSM suspended during an appeal. Back to gray. 

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSN

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisgeidner/oklahoma-ban-on-same-sex-marriages-is-unconstitutional-judge

It could be that only certain parts of the ban are unconstitutional. Don't white out Oklahoma -- yet.

[pbrower2a]

A new Indiana poll (conducted for Republicans) came out today showing a majority in favor of the anti-gay amendment, but like most polls out of Indiana it's unreliable because it completely left out Bloomington and has heavy bias caused to calling landlines (80%) over cell phones (20%).  One user in the comments section details the flaws well.

Take it as you will, but I'd keep Indiana green at this point.

Does it also miss Lafayette?

Polls intended to serve a partisan entity or a special interest aren't worth consideration except for explaining why they must be rejected.

[pbrower2a]

Going with the Deseret poll on whether SSM should be done in Utah. It is mainstream media. It's about even for SSM performed elsewhere.

Now for Florida (PPP):

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No change in Florida.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

(Edit: Changed Utah from blue to red)