Indiana isn't a particularly union state. IIRC, they benefitted from largely non-union Japanese car manufacturers setting up shop there, as opposed to the surrounding union-friendly states. IN is not WI and certainly not MI or OH. (I do think SB 5 did a good job of killing OH for the GOP in 2012.)
The tip-off is Ohio. Ohio has been decided by less than 5% of the last five Presidential elections. It goes wider than that only in electoral blowouts.
In 2008 Ohio went for Obama by about 4.5% and Indiana went for Obama by 1% in an election that verged on a blowout. President Obama was up by 6% (against Santorum), 7% (against Romney), and 10% (against Gingrich and Paul).
Indiana of course went unusually well for President Obama in 2008 for any Democrat because (1) he was from a neighboring state, (2) he got much media attention in Indiana, (3) he campaigned extensively in Indiana, and (4) the economic meltdown hit Indiana with a triple whammy in the RV industry with the evaporation of consumer credit, the sudden meltdown of consumer demand for big-ticket items (RVs), and of course the disintegration of consumer confidence. Kerry lost Indiana by 20% while losing Ohio by 3%; Gore lost the state by 15% in the closest election in American history; Clinton lost the state twice by about 6% in decisive wins nationwide, both times winning all states surrounding Indiana; Carter lost it by 7% in a bare national win in 1976; JFK lost it by 10%.
It's hard to predict whether a state will go back to old ways or whether something is changing. Nothing except its past suggests that Indiana is a solid R state. The same can be said about Virginia, and Virginia is understood to be a swing state.
Unions are much of the core support of the Democratic Party in Indiana, and they will be going after any state legislator who voted for the Right-to-Work (for much less) legislation. The state legislature so gerrymandered the state's legislative districts that the Democrats could win statewide yet hold only two Congressional seats in the Indiana delegation. In the event that the Republicans tea-bag Dick Lugar into political retirement, a US Senate seat goes up for grabs.
Question: will Indiana Democrats do what it takes to have any modicum of political success in Indiana?
If Obama wins IN, he will when it on Election Night, not 10 monts out.
True. And President Obama could still win the state's eleven electoral votes and lose all else.
