How would the non-contenders be doing against Obama right about now?

[pbrower2a]

Sarah Palin would be losing in the popular vote about as badly as Barry Goldwater, if for a very different reason. When she was running for President she was doing badly enough in Obama states to have no chance -- but in any state with a large number of non-native speakers of English she did catastrophically.

Anyone who talks with non-native speakers of English, whether those people were raised learning German or Vietnamese, is well advised to stay close to the formal register -- to not use slang or any non-standard English irrespective of how proficient the other speaker is. She violates that rule. In 2010 when pollsters were contrasting her with someone like Mike Huckabee (who gets his point across very clearly) she did about as well in a state like New Hampshire as did Mike Huckabee, but in New Mexico (which has many people who first learned Spanish) she did far worse than did Huckabee. She is not a religious, racial, or ethnic bigot; it's not that she insulted the Catholic Church. Her atrocious diction offends people who expect better English by people who have no excuse.

She would have the same problem with Cuban-Americans in Florida; she could conceivably lose Florida by a bigger margin than by which she would lose Minnesota. (She would lose Minnesota). She would lose the Old Order Amish (German-speaking) vote in Indiana and Missouri and lose both states. She would lose the Cajun vote in Louisiana... and Louisiana. She would lose Arizona... and Texas.

She would lose California about 75-25, but on Election Night President Obama would be shown to have won 270 electoral votes as Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, and Missouri are called for President Obama. 

She would win those Southern, Western, and Plains states with small numbers of non-native speakers of English. But that is it.   

Mike Huckabee would get results similar to those of McCain in 2008, perhaps trading Indiana for Missouri or Arizona.