Analogy: Climate change vs. impaired driving (user search)
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  Analogy: Climate change vs. impaired driving (search mode)
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Author Topic: Analogy: Climate change vs. impaired driving  (Read 2370 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: December 27, 2014, 03:27:55 PM »
« edited: December 27, 2014, 07:09:48 PM by pbrower2a »

In view of the upcoming Drunk Night (New years' Eve)....


AGW deniers can contemplate these two graphs:    



I look at that chart, and I see this: that below 320ppm the differences of temperature are cycles of weather. Above 320ppm it is carbon dioxide. That's where the inflection point lies.

I figure that a good analogy is blood alcohol content and vehicle accidents: below about .03 BAC, where one drives and at what time makes the difference. Above .03 it is the BAC. If you drive at 2AM when the bars close you have a higher-than-average chance of an accident because of all the drunks behind the wheel or staggering about as pedestrians. Between about .03 and .08 any anger, tiredness, confusion, or stupidity will add to the effect of alcohol. At .08 or higher you are the drunk.



We are in the driver's seat now, and we are undeniably impaired.

Oh, by the way -- drive sober -- or GET PULLED OVER!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: December 27, 2014, 03:58:07 PM »

There is so much wrong with that chart that its not even worth getting into.


Please stop.



Do you mean that impaired driving is not so bad as we have been told that it is?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2014, 11:31:58 PM »

What does "global temperature" refer to? Air temperature? Ocean temperature? Land surface temperature?

Surface temperatures, land, sea, and ice together .

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Wikipedia.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2014, 08:13:29 PM »

My rationale: the graphs have similar shape. It's hard to imagine anyone denying a connection between BAC and the relative likelihood of a vehicle crash beyond a certain point in BAC. People might argue that they might be better drivers after one drink, especially if the drink makes them more relaxed and less nervous. Beyond the first drink one has no question: the higher the BAC, the worse one's driving gets. Nobody responsibly denies the connection between the BAC and the impairment of driving beyond a certain point.

At any level of atmospheric carbon dioxide there will  be some statistical noise in the correlation of temperature to the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. There are volcanic eruptions and sunspot cycles. The big numbers that relate to commonplace vehicle collisions, very frequent events, make allowances for weather, time of day, and the quality of highways. We don't have as big numbers for world temperatures. 

The idea is less crazy than it seems.  The common thread, of course, being that global climate systems and the human body have a certain amount of resilience/"buffer" that can absorb small to moderate amounts of shock in terms of GHG or booze or whatever without ill effects, but at a certain point you hit an inflection where the natural feedback systems get overwhelmed and any further stress will lead to genuine impairment.

This isn't necessarily meant as a defense of that Wiki-sourced drunk driving chart, of course (which I can't vouch for); just an explanation/defense of the underlying idea.

Bingo!
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