Republicans know they need to win over some Obama voters, right?
(either that or a vast majority of the 18-22 vote)
If the Obama-phobic haters were outnumbered in 2008 and 2012, there's no way that more of them will show up in 2016, when he's no longer even running.
They need just enough Obama voters to win.
How in the world are they setting themselves up to do that??
Nah, they're just hoping enough Obama voters don't vote in 2016.
Same effect. But the first one makes more sense.
Barack Obama won majorities of the vote in 2008 and 2012. In general, voter participation increases with age until people get very old, and there is little sign of any shift of voters from 2012 to 2016.
The youngest voters of 2008 and 2012 have yet to show that the GOP has much to offer them. The cohort of voters associated so strongly with voting for Barack Obama (born 1982 and later) is not getting smaller. In 2008, people born as late as 1990 voted. In 2012 people born as late as 1994 voted. In 2016 people born as late as 1998 will vote.
If anything, older and more conservative voters born largely from 1925 to 1945 will be dying off. Republicans could conceivably do better with voters born in the 1960s and 1970s -- but they would have to ditch the xenophobia and the support of crony capitalism.
