IN - WTHR/Howey Politics: Trump and Cruz lead Clinton

[pbrower2a]

The Obama win of Indiana in 2008 increasingly looks like a fluke.  That year the Republicans got hit by a triple-whammy upon the RV industry: high gasoline prices, an overall recession, and a credit crunch at the same time. Once those were gone Indiana could go back to voting Republican as the swing constituency of relatively-conservative people who work in the RV industry (heavily Mennonites who disapprove of big government) went back to voting R in almost all elections.  Obama was going to lose those voters one way or the other -- either through failure of economic stewardship or by taking away their disdain for Republicans with successful stewardship of the American economy.

President Obama still won nationwide while losing Indiana by about 10%. Indiana is about E+12.  if you ignore 2008. But Ohio is about R+2, so if the Republican nominee is winning Indiana by about 10% he is losing Ohio by about 2% and is losing nationwide.     

[pbrower2a]

GOP should win IN somewhere around 53-45% (third party candidates may get 1-2%).

McCain lost it in '08 simply because the economy really collapsed at the wrong time, late in that campaign and many abandoned his shape.

Also, he had to gamble at other states he needed to win and could not waste time in IN.  He had to assume he would win there, which of course didn't happen

A Republican nominee really needs to win the state almost 60-40 show evidence of an impending win nationwide. A 53-48 split of the Indiana vote means that the Democrat is winning Ohio about 51-48. A Republican nominee who loses Ohio is not going to be elected President.
 
I can't imagine Hillary Clinton making many appearances in Indiana unless it is to help Indiana Democrats.