Trump: 4 years or 8 years?

[pbrower2a]

If Barack Obama had the perception of a left-wing extremist to the Tea Party types, Donald Trump will have the reality of right-wing extremism to people on the Center-Left to Far Left. For that Donald Trump will lose about as much of a share of the popular vote between 2016 and 2020 as Obama did between 2008 and 2012.

Obama 2008 52.86
Obama 2012 51.01

down 1.85

Trump 2016 45.98

down 1.85

Trump 2020 44.13

That will be enough to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida.

I suspect that it will be far worse for Trump. 

[pbrower2a]

Four. He offends too many people too early. He can stick to his reactionary agenda and lose from 2016 (and he would not have to lose much in the popular vote to have absolutely no chance of winning re-election, or if his reactionary agenda fails and he changes course, he gets primaried. 

Liberals are going to do to him what the Tea Party did to Barack Obama -- only it will be more effective because it will be on issues instead of on personality.

[pbrower2a]

i think Pence becomes president before the end of the first term

Yup. I also think Pence has good odds of winning in 2020

Mike Pence is the ideology of Donald Trump with an air of fundamentalist Christian piety. He is Gerald Ford without the geniality and capacity for compromise.

Donald Trump is definitely not JFK except for womanizing and Mike Pence is not LBJ... unless America undergoes mass conversion to right-wing Christian Protestant fundamentalism, Mike Pence will offend the sensibilities of too many Americans to win a free and fair election.

We have an even bigger question to ask: will the 2020 elections be free and fair? Or will they be like those of Commie states in which people get to vote but have no meaningful choice?