Analogies for the 2012 presidential election

[pbrower2a]

Catastrophic Obama Presidency:  Hoover 1932 or Carter 1980. Does anyone see that?

Awful Obama Presidency: Bush 1992, Ford 1976.

"Marginally tolerable" Bush 2004, Truman 1948 maybe something out of the 19th Century.

There's really nothing in between Truman 1948 and Clinton 1996, so there are no good analogies. Even Truman 1948 would have been more like Clinton 1996 had it not been for the Dixiecrat secession.

"Convincing" Obama Presidency: Clinton 1996, Coolidge 1924. (not that Coolidge was much better than Bush 2004).

Strong Obama Presidency: Eisenhower 1956. That's the strongest that I can reasonably imagine.



 

[pbrower2a]

I'm betting on Carter in 1980.

It could be. The man doesn't know how to govern and it looks like his administration is in a mess right now.

Clinton got that rap early, and it is questionable that he ever learned to govern. He won decisively in 1996 -- most likely because he was lucky. That's not to say that he was by any means a great President. He well played the center.

The current conservative base of the GOP is absolutely not enough to win in 2012.  The base must expand to win, and must convince people not in the base that the GOP has better ideas. A repackaging of the George W. Bush agenda ensures an Obama landslide.