UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov/Sunday Times: Lab 35, Con 33, UKIP 14, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5

Also, Opinium has the Tories ahead by 3, while Survation has Labour ahead by 4.

[Phony Moderate]

It may be due to the YouGov daily tracker, but poll movements seem to have been relatively gradual in this parliament. In the last parliament we saw several speedy movements - Labour taking a handy lead after the Brown takeover, the Tory surge and Labour decline immediately after the Election That Never Was, a further Labour decline and Tory surge after the 10p tax fiasco and the 2008 locals, a sharp Labour recovery after the financial meltdown, a decline for both Labour and the Tories (but more so Labour) during the expenses scandal and then of course the Cleggmania surge after the first debate.

[Phony Moderate]

Can we presume there's been no budget bounce or what?

Probably. There does seem to be a swingback occuring, but it seems to be a swingback to both major parties.

[Phony Moderate]

Cameron says he won't seek a third term if he gets a second, which would mean five years of endless speculation as to who would succeed him.

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32029389

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Michael Gove evidently believes that Thatcher was neither sane nor decent. Nice to know.

[Phony Moderate]

As an aside, an amusing thought: Let's say the Tories remain in government after May 7th. Burnham succeeds Miliband. Johnson succeeds Cameron at some point during the next parliament. Tories fail to break 1% in any Liverpool constituency in 2020.

[Phony Moderate]

A coup attempt against Bercow is taking place...

[Phony Moderate]

A coup attempt against Bercow is taking place...

I'm confused. Why do Tories want to dump the Speaker from their party in favor of someone from Labour?

Prior to his election Bercow had been something of a thorn in the side of the Tory leadership and often voted with Labour. He was elected mostly on the back of Labour MPs - almost all Tory MPs voted for Sir George Young (another Tory MP) in the final round. During his time in the chair he has been seen as biased against the Tory benches.

[Phony Moderate]

A coup attempt against Bercow is taking place...

I'm confused. Why do Tories want to dump the Speaker from their party in favor of someone from Labour?

Prior to his election Bercow had been something of a thorn in the side of the Tory leadership and often voted with Labour. He was elected mostly on the back of Labour MPs - almost all Tory MPs voted for Sir George Young (another Tory MP) in the final round. During his time in the chair he has been seen as biased against the Tory benches.

Any obvious candidates to replace him?

I'm reading it's because the  LibDems are having a hissy fit over their botched 'budget' last week. Typical.

Lindsay Hoyle may be favorite, despite being a Labour MP (hey, so was Boothroyd).

[Phony Moderate]

Check out the look that Bercow gives towards the government benches at around 1:50: http://youtu.be/5-bTTeBdVe0

[Phony Moderate]

Miliband came off as more real, Cameron came off as more polished.

ICM gave it to Cameron by 54-46 btw.

[Phony Moderate]

Reminds one of that Spitting Image spoof of Andrew Lloyd Webber - Webber: "If Labour wins, I'll flee the country". Announcer: "That was a party election broadcast on behalf of the Labour Party."

[Phony Moderate]

UKIP now seen as the party of sleaze, according to YouGov. Amusing when you think back to the 2009 European election campaign.

[Phony Moderate]

Is Cameron going to bother doing the "I saw Her Majesty and asked for a dissolution of Parliament..." bit outside No. 10 on Monday? Or has the Fixed Terms bill killed that tradition?

[Phony Moderate]

Labour 4 points ahead with YouGov, Tories ahead 1 with Opinium. With YouGov, Miliband was seen as having come across the best in the interviews by a margin of 49-34 and his personal ratings have increased to a still rather poor -28 (up from -40something) and his 'better Prime Minister' rating is up to 23% while Cameron's is down to 35%.

[Phony Moderate]

As per usual in the run-up to an election, there is clearly some attention whoring and making-up-of-numbers going on. It's a shame ICM do not poll more frequently.

But going on the basis of the European elections it is clear which of YouGov and ComRes is the more reliable. ComRes had some geniunely hilariously numbers during that campaign (UKIP on 38% stands out).

[Phony Moderate]

Labour might be getting the vote of...wait for it...Peter Hitchens

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http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2015/03/is-slippery-salmond-secretly-trying-to-get-dave-elected.html

[Phony Moderate]

Cameron just returned from visiting the Queen and formally announced the dissolution of Parliament and the election date...then he followed up with an impressive collection of bland soundbites.

[Phony Moderate]

Ashcroft has the Tories ahead by 2 with both parties rising and the Lib Dems and UKIP slipping.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/ashcroft-national-poll-con-36-lab-34-lib-dem-6-ukip-10-green-7/#more-11140

[Phony Moderate]

Closing this thread and opening a new one as a. it is nearing the 'ceiling' of 2,000 posts and b. a new thread for the campaign proper seems appropriate. I'm sure our moderator will agree too.