UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Phony Moderate]

My ratings:

Clegg: Style - 6, Substance - 6
Miliband: Style - 6, Substance - 7
Bennett: Style - 3 (too bland and forgettable), Substance - 7
Cameron: Style - 7, Substance - 5
Farage: Style - 7, Substance - 6
Sturgeon: Style - 9, Substance - 9
Wood: Style - 6, Substance - 6

[Phony Moderate]

You Gov Debate Result: Sturgeon wins

 Cameron: 18% Miliband: 15% Clegg: 10% Farage: 20% Bennett: 5% Sturgeon: 28% Wood: 4% 1117 GB adults

So, the 'winner' isn't standing in over 90% of the seats...

I wonder what the figures are among Scots alone. Sturgeon on 97%?

[Phony Moderate]

So can we write off Cleggmania 2.0?

[Phony Moderate]

Last night's YouGov poll has made the Tories happy...happy that it shows them matching Jim Callaghan.

[Phony Moderate]

Last night's YouGov poll has made the Tories happy...happy that it shows them matching Jim Callaghan.

?

Just a snide remark on my part; on their VI figure last night.

[Phony Moderate]

Dan Hodges was interviewed this morning on the debate and managed to go two minutes without uttering the words 'Ed Miliband'. New record?

[Phony Moderate]

Whatever happened to those really obscure (and awful) ones who were around at this time five years ago? BPIX and One Poll may have been their names. Also, what about Harris (one of the better pollsters in days gone by) and the hilarious Angus Reid?

[Phony Moderate]

What is the Torygraph playing at exactly? What's the goal they're aiming for?

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Con 34, Labour 33, UKIP 13, LDem 10, Nats 5, Greens 4

Now, I'm a YouGov member myself, but their daily tracker is all over the map!

Not to sound like Anthony Wells, but with daily trackers you have to look at the trend rather than at the individual polls.

Anyway, leaders' 'well/badly' ratings from YouGov:

Cameron - 47/46
Miliband - 33/59 (the good news for him here is that he's in line with his party's VI for the first time since...maybe ever?)
Clegg - 29/62
Farage - 53/35

So bounces for all of the first three, probably on the basis of their bases (mouthful there!) uniting around them + some of their non-supporters thinking 'Oh, maybe I don't agree with them but look how hard they are working right how." Farage is down...but he was last polled in October of last year so that should be no surprise.

'Better Prime Minister' numbers are Cameron 36, Miliband 24, Farage 8, Clegg 6

[Phony Moderate]

ICM Wisdom Index (asking for an estimate of the party shares on May 7th) has Labour and the Tories both on 32 with the Lib Dems on 14 and UKIP on 12.

A private poll of Thanet South has Con 31, UKIP 30, Labour 29.

[Phony Moderate]

Not entirely on topic, but scroll down to the bottom of this page to the vote breakdowns by class: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemID=101&view=wide

If these are accurate, then the Tories' failure to win an overall majority last time was based almost entirely on their failure to get anywhere near their 1992 levels of support amongst the middle class (in fact they matched their 1997 (!) share in that demographic); they did amongst both C2s and DEs. Will we see a return to more traditional patterns this time, with the Tories losing ground amongst the working-class and Labour amongst the middle-class?

[Phony Moderate]

Question:  Does today's Conservative Party still like to talk about the days of Thatcher with misty eyes, a la the Republicans with Reagan?

No; Thatcher is a much more controversial figure here than Reagan is over there. Cameron has described himself as "a fan of Thatcher, but not a Thatcherite."

[Phony Moderate]

Labour like nearly all 'socialist' parties in Europe are actually liberal parties in that I believe they have all repudiated their support of nationalizing key sectors of the economy.

For instance, here in Canada, the right leaning MacLean's Magazine as well as Andrew Coyne has said they can see no difference between 'Red' Liberals and the NDP. Obviously there are differences between 'blue' Liberals and New Democrats, however the 'Red' Liberals likely make up a fairly substantial majority of all Liberals, except perhaps for when they're in government.

Even in Australia and, I believe, New Zealand as well, the Labor Party has both a separate left wing and a right wing.

I wouldn't call it 'liberal' but they have adopted a modern, reformed socialism that is more compatible with the technology age.

Of course our Labour Party has more or less conceded that there needs to be some form of austerity. That is the depressing thing (for me) about this election; the Tories have set the narrative and it is being fought on that - heartless austerity vs. austerity with compassion is the choice that is being presented here. Still, Labour set the narrative from 1997 until the recession so it is inevitable that it will swing from time to time. Isn't it amazing now to think that as recently as 2005 the Tory leadership was in the midst of a witchhunt against PPCs who disagreed with the pledge to match Labour's levels of spending?

[Phony Moderate]

Good news for both the Greens and the Lib Dems today, I'd say.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32198938

[Phony Moderate]

Not worth much, but the YouGov Scottish internals show a huge gender gap - SNP ahead 52-24 amongst men, 40-34 amongst women.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 35, Con 33, UKIP 14, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov 'absolutely certain to vote' figure is 69%. At this point in the 2010 campaign it was 63%. Which would point to a turnout of 71% or so.

[Phony Moderate]

Ashcroft's national poll is notorious for its zig zagging, so maybe his constituency polls do the same thing (or would do if they were as regular as his national poll).

Interestingly, Political Betting isn't spinning these as good news for the Tories as you might expect.

[Phony Moderate]

Several of those seats were also polled as far back as May of last year and there's virtually no change (at least in the Lab-Con difference) despite the national polls back then showing a consistent Labour lead.

[Phony Moderate]

If you take them all, then on average the Tory vote is only down 0.3% on 2010, with Labour up 3.6. That's a swing of less than 2%.

Exactly the same as the national share changes in 1992 compared to 1987...

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 35, Con 34, UKIP 13, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5

[Phony Moderate]

I was going to say that it's based entirely on GB-wide polls...but in that case the Lib Dems wouldn't be as high as 38.

[Phony Moderate]

Panelbase: Lab 37, Con 31, UKIP 15, Lib Dems 8, Greens 4
TNS: Lab 33, Con 30, UKIP 19, Lib Dems 8, Greens 4
Survation: Lab 35, Con 31, UKIP 15, Lib Dems 9, Greens 4

Salt, etc.

[Phony Moderate]

Panelbase (heaps of salt probably a necessity): Lab 37, Con 31, UKIP 15, Lib Dems 8, Greens 4

That's got the looks of an outlier, without even looking at the datatables...

Edited in a couple of other polls released today that make it look less so. All three are not exactly highly regarded, it should be noted.

[Phony Moderate]

ComRes: Con 34, Lab 33, Lib Dems 12, UKIP 12, Greens 4
YouGov: Con 35, Lab 34, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 8, Greens 4

For what it's worth, four out of the five UK polls today have shown a shift to Labour. Also, the highest Lib Dem number in a while with ComRes.