Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Phony Moderate]

Tbh I'm beginning to respect Kendall for being so consistent in her awfulness. She's still getting last preference from me though.

[Phony Moderate]

When did Benn and Skinner form a breakaway party?

[Phony Moderate]

There's a difference between being on the Labour Right and being a Blairite. Many journalists don't seem to grasp this.

[Phony Moderate]

There's a difference between being on the Labour Right and being a Blairite. Many journalists don't seem to grasp this.

What is this difference?

The main factions within the party are:

Traditional right - accepted most of the 'New Labour' stuff but more open to social conservatism and Euroscepticism.
Modernising right - advocates of the 'centre ground' approach to economic policy, firmly New Labour, socially liberal and Europhile. Blairites if you like.
Technocrats - Gordon Brown loyalists, many of whom served in his cabinet.
Soft left - The left of the party that isn't the Socialist Campaign Group.
Hard left - The Socialist Campaign Group MPs and a good chunk of the membership.

[Phony Moderate]

Ken Livingstone is backing Eagle for Deputy. Not sure if that was already known.

[Phony Moderate]

You know, there is the possibility that we haven't seen the last of Ed. John Howard's first spell as Liberal leader (1985-1989) was widely seen as a disaster and the man himself as inept, unpopular and awkward.

[Phony Moderate]

You know, there is the possibility that we haven't seen the last of Ed. John Howard's first spell as Liberal leader (1985-1989) was widely seen as a disaster and the man himself as inept, unpopular and awkward.

The difference being that Howard was an experienced and highly capable politician whose first attempt to become Prime Minister was derailed by a combination of the deranged 'Joh for Canberra' campaign and by Andrew Peacock. Ed Miliband may be a nice man, but he was hardly an experienced politician, and he certainly wasn't very capable.

I read a biography of Hawke recently and it notes that Howard began the 1987 campaign by making a major error: hopping on a plane and visiting Joh, even though that whole idea had faded away. It allowed the ALP to tie Howard to the discredited Joh. This could be compared to, say, Miliband's Russell Brand visit. Howard was experienced but he wasn't the politician he became in mid 90s. Anyway, it (a Miliband return) almost certainly won't happen, though Labour probably wouldn't do any worse if he had another term than it will do under, well, any of the four on offer, frankly.

[Phony Moderate]

Oh yeah and Barry Sheerman (Huddersfield MP) has called for this whole thing to be paused. I doubt he's supporting Corbyn.

[Phony Moderate]

New YouGov poll:

Corbyn - 53%
Burnham - 21%
Cooper - 18%
Kendall - 8%

[Phony Moderate]

If that's how things are then that's how things are, but I dunno.

There were some issues with the internals of the last one they did; might be interesting to see if they are repeated with this one as well.

Internals: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/14x8p1al7n/TimesResults150810LabourMembers.pdf

New YouGov poll:

Corbyn - 53%
Burnham - 21%
Cooper - 18%
Kendall - 8%

Am I right in thinking there wouldn't be a second round if Corbyn got over 50% in the first round?

Silly question I know but just making sure

Yes, that's right. Though according to YouGov if other preferences were counted Corbyn would beat Burnham 60-40 and Cooper 62-38.

[Phony Moderate]

Peter Kellner's analysis. He says that he'd be 'astonished' if Corbyn doesn't win.

[Phony Moderate]

Clive Lewis will be the next Labour Prime Minister. There.

[Phony Moderate]

Over 600,000 are eligible to vote, apparently. A hefty number (a majority?) of those are not members but registered supporters. Hard to envision many registering to vote for Burnham, Cooper or Kendall. Corbyn also of course won the highest number of CLP nominations (in which only members can vote) by a decent margin and a lot of those meetings were held before his surge really got going.

You'd have to say that he's the firm favorite, wouldn't you?

[Phony Moderate]

Thatcher effectively handpicked Major and Hague, don't forget.

[Phony Moderate]

Cooper made a speech today in which she criticised Corbyn's views. Few specifics of course, just bland and vague statements like "he has old ideas for old times" and "we need to face the 21st century" etc, but then she isn't a politician who gives the impression of holding sincere opinions on anything. I imagine that she will gain some support but whether it will be enough is another matter.

[Phony Moderate]

Latest ICM poll has Tories on 40 and Labour on 31. That's a bigger gap than the general election.

It would be unusual for the winning party of the previous GE not to be performing as well or better in the polls than at the previous GE at this stage in a parliament.

[Phony Moderate]

Did anyone mention Corbyn as even a possible candidate (let alone leader) prior to his announcement? The likes of Cameron, Ed, IDS etc were all at least known in political circles as possible/probable contenders. This would be the dark horse victory of all dark horse victories.

[Phony Moderate]

There is the fact of population growth too. And if those half a million had come from places like Nuneaton and so on then we'd be looking at a different story.

[Phony Moderate]

And the Mirror has endorsed Burnham.

[Phony Moderate]

An 'updated' (presumably to account for the late surge in registration) YouGov poll:

Corbyn - 57% (+4)
Burnham - 20% (-1)
Cooper - 16% (-2)
Kendall - 7% (-1)

[Phony Moderate]

If he were playing that game he'd have surely put Corbyn on 47 rather than 57.

[Phony Moderate]

On the day the ballot papers go out, this is the main story on BBC News: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33921047

Giving that she is clearly one of the most unpopular members of the PLP amongst Labour members at present...

[Phony Moderate]

Here is the Telegraph's...questionable...prediction on a Corbyn Shadow Cabinet:

Chancellor - Michael Meacher
Foreign - Tom Watson
Home - Andy Burnham
Education - Ian Mearns
Chief Whip - Dennis Skinner
Health - Clive Efford
Justice - Kate Osamor
Defence - Gordon Marsden
Communities - John McDonnell
Business - Richard Burgon
Work and Pensions - Diane Abbott
Environment - Dawn Butler
Transport - Rupa Huq
Cabinet Office - Cat Smith
Energy and Climate Change - Jon Trickett

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11796735/Jeremy-Corbyns-shadow-cabinet-who-could-serve.html

[Phony Moderate]

Kezia has won with Alex Rowley elected Deputy.

Leader: Dugdale - 72.1%, Macintosh 27.9%
Deputy first round: Rowley 37.4%, Matheson 32.2%, Baker 30.4%. Second round: Rowley 55.5%, Matheson 44.5%

[Phony Moderate]

Just received an impressive booklet from Watson.