Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Phony Moderate]

Chuka Umunna is a strange guy, isn't he?

[Phony Moderate]

Once again, Blair expresses regret over an actual achievement of his government's.

[Phony Moderate]

Big move to Cooper in the betting markets in the past few hours and away from Corbyn and Burnham, though Corbyn is still firm favourite. A new poll out in the near future?

[Phony Moderate]

Poll of 250 Labour councillors in marginal seats by the Labour History Research Unit:

Corbyn - 30.3% (+5.13%)
Cooper - 28.7% (-1.23%)
Burnham - 28.3% (-2.65%)
Kendall - 12.7% (-1.25%)

Changes are on the previous poll. Full details here: http://ww2.anglia.ac.uk/ruskin/en/home/microsites/labour_history_research/useful_links.Maincontent.0003.file.tmp/LHRU%20September%202015%20polling.pdf

[Phony Moderate]

Corbyn's odds seem to have tightened again today.

[Phony Moderate]

Our biggest concern was that poll that had us at 8% in the Scottish elections next year

What poll was that? I haven't seen Labour below 20%, tbh.

The poll has disappeared, Ruth Davidson and several blairites re-tweeted it-basically laughing at the fact that we're doing worse than the tories for probably the first time since well ages

Probably figures from a crosstab of a UK-wide poll.

[Phony Moderate]

The timetable for the special conference can be found at the bottom of this article: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/05/corbyn-supporters-mps-party-members-labour-election

[Phony Moderate]

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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/05/labour-liz-kendall-vote-for-yvette-cooper-get-jeremy-corbyn

Is it a case of former Corbyn supporters switching their first preferences to Burnham or a case of Burnham supporters viewing Corbyn as being more acceptable now? Or both?

[Phony Moderate]

Even if Burnham wasn't having a shocking campaign, he clearly isn't seen as an acceptable compromise for the right of the party.

That seems rather silly of them.

Especially given that he is, you know, on the right of the party (though on the left of this leadership campaign).

[Phony Moderate]

are Labour peers voting as part of the PLP?

Well there's no PLP bloc anymore but if there were then no.

[Phony Moderate]

Further fun fact; we got a lower share of the vote in the last two elections than the Tories did in 1997.

And the Tories in both 2015 and 2010 won fewer total votes than Callaghan in 1979 and Kinnock in 1992.

[Phony Moderate]

Corbyn's odds seem to be tightening again.

[Phony Moderate]

The Daily Mail is saying that one of the campaigns is about to call for the count to be delayed/the contest extended by three days.

[Phony Moderate]

The Mayoral race result is announced on Friday morning - the day before the leadership and deputy leadership.

[Phony Moderate]

[Phony Moderate]

From the New Statesman:

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[Phony Moderate]

Watch Shirley Williams in this clip from 0:38 (after losing her seat in 1979): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b20Td5fFoTs

Basically she is saying that the voters were mistaken and selfish in their decision; refreshingly honest and a far cry from many of today's modernisers.

[Phony Moderate]

Basically she is saying that the voters were mistaken and selfish in their decision; refreshingly honest and a far cry from many of today's modernisers.

I can not understand why Labour didn't get back in power until 18 years later with that attitude.

Interesting comment given that Shirley Williams was out of the Labour Party about eighteen months after that clip.

[Phony Moderate]

Watch Shirley Williams in this clip from 0:38 (after losing her seat in 1979): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b20Td5fFoTs

Basically she is saying that the voters were mistaken and selfish in their decision; refreshingly honest and a far cry from many of today's modernisers.

The presenter looks like he should be fronting an Open University programme

1979 was all about the Winter Of Discontent and Callaghan's mishandling of his 5% incomes policy coupled with a couple of weak and irresponsible union leaders such as Moss Evans. It was nothing to do with voters being selfish.

I more or less agree, but I admire the way she didn't mince words like most of today's politicians. Though those were the days before everything was put under a microscope by the 24/7 media.

[Phony Moderate]

Sneak preview of the next five years?

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov have actually just released a new poll on the London race. Amongst 2015 Labour voters it is (excluding undecideds): Jowell 37, Khan 26, Lammy 17, Abbott 14, rest 6. You would imagine that Khan and Abbott are doing better amongst the people who are voting in the contest.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/11zr3i9of3/InternalMerge_LondonMayor_150902_Website.pdf

[Phony Moderate]

Keir Hardie is currently trending on Twitter.

Also saw on Twitter that around 340,000 votes is likely to be the number cast - pointing to a turnout of around 60%.

[Phony Moderate]

I just found an interesting conversation on Twitter's search thing; it starts with someone stating that he will be preferencing Cooper first, then Kendall, then Corbyn, then Burnham. Someone responds by saying that he is unable to decide between Corbyn and Cooper for first and Burnham and Kendall for last. Someone else then states that he is putting 1. Cooper, 2. Corbyn, 3. Kendall, 4. Burnham.

Needless to say that the above doesn't exactly fit in with conventional wisdom.

[Phony Moderate]

Also from Twitter:

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[Phony Moderate]

Winning elections does not necessarily mean that one is a good leader; I remember watching an old Question Time in which it was stated to Blair that he was a good Prime Minister but not a good leader.

When (and how) will the result be published?

Between 11 and noon (our time) on Saturday the 12th at a special conference.