Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Phony Moderate]

It's hardly less realistic given that we have more choices of party.

[Phony Moderate]

Corbyn will not be the next Labour leader.

Doing a Keystone Phil are we?

Anyway, the bookies are going to take a hammering whoever has won. Corbyn is now as short as 1/16 having been as long as 200/1 just a few months ago. Presumably a fair few have placed bets on Burnham and Cooper on the basis that "it can't possibly happen, can it?".

[Phony Moderate]

So, there is a fair chance that Jeremy Corbyn will be leader of the Labour Party and of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition this time tomorrow. Still surreal.

[Phony Moderate]

Still certain Corbyn is not winning this

Not the view of most Labour MPs and journalists.

I'm still not certain but I'd rate it as an 80% probability that Corbyn wins; before the London announcement today it was more like 70%.

[Phony Moderate]

He won (as you probably know) the most CLP nominations (by a fair distance) though, with varying numbers of members; it wasn't just the odd freak occurance. It is harder to 'scare' people in internal elections anyway; the future of the country isn't at stake, merely the party.

[Phony Moderate]

To add to that, despite this being a big selectorate, much or most of it is still likely to be comprised of political junkies; political junkies are more likely to have firm beliefs and allegiances than the general population and are less likely to be swayed. This forum is a good example of that actually; Hillary Clinton has been receiving very negative coverage recently over the email scandal and yet her hardcore supporters on this forum are still fully behind her; if anything, they are more supportive of her (a 'rally around the flag' effect if you like). Sure, it is quite likely that some of Corbyn's softer supporters have switched to Burnham or Cooper in recent weeks, but enough to prevent him from winning? Unlikely imo.

[Phony Moderate]

I honestly think that many in the party's establishment view a Corbyn victory as the least-worst outcome now, hoping that he will eff up to the extent that he can be replaced with Dan Jarvis or whoever a couple of years down the line.

[Phony Moderate]

We have a turnout figure: 76.3%/around 423,000. London's was about that IIRC.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov underestimated Corbyn....

[Phony Moderate]

Also, so much for the Cooper surge.

[Phony Moderate]

Gillian Duffy (the "bigoted" woman from the 2010 campaign) has said she won't be voting for Labour again.

She said this now? Why?

Attention?

[Phony Moderate]

Miliband is actually the only former leader who has said anything thus far.

[Phony Moderate]

Adam Boulton is losing it with protesters on Sky News right now...

[Phony Moderate]

Can someone get Tony Blair a strong drink, and perhaps a Conservative membership card?

Well he seemed pretty pissed with how far Brown moved the party to the left...

[Phony Moderate]

Email just sent:

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[Phony Moderate]

Hilary Benn is said to be likely to remain as Shadow Foreign Secretary.

[Phony Moderate]

Shame about Reeves ruling herself out, I like her. I do think a lot of Labourite frontbenchers are shooting themselves in the foot here. It's like they want a "stabbed in the back" mythos to emerge.

Yeah, that's really dumb and petty. It seems they're already at work to undermine him, instead of actually giving him a chance.

They're likely still bitter about the events of 2005-2007.

[Phony Moderate]

Lord Falconer has had a meeting with Corbyn today, it would seem.

[Phony Moderate]

Burnham gets Home Secretary, Benn stays at Foreign as expected, Heidi Alexander gets Health, Falconer gets Justice. Still no announcement on Chancellor.

Coaker at Northern Ireland, Murray at Scotland (shock!).

Most of the people above are on the Right, are they not?

[Phony Moderate]

McDonnell is Shadow Chancellor.

[Phony Moderate]

Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Seema Malhotra, Shadow Business Secretary Angela Eagle (who was the other contender for Chancellor).

[Phony Moderate]

FFS we have a racist as our community secretary

Abbott - surprised she didn't get a slightly more senior role tbh.

[Phony Moderate]

As someone on Twitter pointed out, in the 1950s the media would have merely said "The new leader of the Labour Party is Mr. Corbyn" and then shut up.

[Phony Moderate]

Given Labour's history it is probably better for Corbyn to have a Chancellor that is both personally and politically close to him.

[Phony Moderate]

Dennis Skinner on top form: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6MeMmozV1o