Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Phony Moderate]

A Corbyn-led Labour Party would make the EU referendum far more interesting of course.

[Phony Moderate]

And Polly Toynbee herself was an SDP candidate in 1983.

[Phony Moderate]

Lol Kendall

[Phony Moderate]

Seems about right. Maybe if he achieves some sort of miracle and keeps the right flank bolted on, he can grab a minority or something in a neutral year; but yeah the odds would be stacked against him.

i wonder if Corbyn gets a Shadow Cabinet position out of this?

Assuming he even gets to 2020. Corbyn will be a year older than Michael Foot was then and Foot had a difficult time keeping with the pace of 1983. The chances of Corbyn, who has never held a high-profile office in his life, suffering some major health event before then are significant enough that they have to be taken into consideration.

Which is strange as few said that about Churchill, who a. was the same age in 1940 as Corbyn is now, b. liked his drink and wasn't exactly a picture of fitness and c. had far more stressful circumstances to deal with than Corbyn would almostly certainly ever have to

Of course if he had the appearance of Mitt Romney (who was in his mid 60s in 2012 and hasn't aged much since) then no one would give the slightest about his age.

[Phony Moderate]

Churchill suffered major health problems during the war

Point, but a 40-something may well have done so too under such circumstances, and again his age wasn't of concern to many.

[Phony Moderate]

John Cryer (the youngest member of the SCG) would be a strong contender in that scenario.

[Phony Moderate]

But what counts as a defeat/victory next time exactly? Labour only need to gain 30-40 seats to potentially have the numbers to form some kind of government. If the Tories lose even 20-25 then it might be a challenge for them to stay, especially given that the (presumably Farron-led) Lib Dems will be reluctant at best to enter into any agreement with them.

[Phony Moderate]

A 'New Labour' revolt in the event of Corbyn victory (assuming it would be based upon the fact that Corbyn won) would surely show to the party and to the public their hatred of democracy. The same would be true of the Left if they were to react that way to Kendall victory, though it is worth noting that the likes of Benn, Corbyn and Skinner didn't choose to form their own party in 1994, or even whine that much, frankly. Blair was brought down not by the Left but by the Brownite Right. 

[Phony Moderate]

I don't think there is much doubt that Corbyn's chances are greater than Kendall's (which isn't saying saying much but whatever).

[Phony Moderate]

1 Corbyn
2 Burnham
3 Lady Balls
4 Blank

Not ranked: Kendall

Same except I will rank Kendall for the sake of completion.

Undecided for Deputy; probably Creasy or Watson as first preference.

[Phony Moderate]

Oh, btw, if I were in Progress I'd have advocated Flint rather than Kendall/Umunna/Hunt for leader.

[Phony Moderate]

Take with the Earth's load of salt, but rumours are circulating that the Progress lot are already drawing up plans for a breakaway party. At the very least they must believe (given the Umunna and Hunt remarks) that Corbyn could really win.

[Phony Moderate]

And now she's going all libertarian on us! http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/7831446?1437396433

[Phony Moderate]

Well Corbyn's prospects now look brighter...

[Phony Moderate]

Now heading into self-parody territory

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov have conducted a poll...

Corbyn - 43%
Burnham - 26%
Cooper - 20%
Kendall - 11%

Corbyn ahead of Burnham 53%-47% in the final round.

Watson has big lead in the Deputy contest.

[Phony Moderate]

They weren't too bad last time.

[Phony Moderate]

More good news for Corbyn Corbyn supporters?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/tony-blair/11754589/Tony-Blair-to-warn-Labour-against-lurching-to-left.html

[Phony Moderate]

Abbott probably has more personal charisma than Corbyn but she lacks credibility. Sent her kid to private school, various racial comment gaffes, poor when she is challenged in interviews. Even Dennis Skinner didn't vote her (David Miliband, believe it or not). Incidentally the YouGov internals (yeah yeah) show Corbyn winning about one in five D Miliband 2010 voters.

Kind of a shame that Dennis Skinner isn't twenty years younger, actually. Imagine him at the dispatch box.

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33625612

In summary: "I hate a large proportion of the membership and I hate democracy on general!" The female Labour ex-Leftists do tend to be among the most obxious people in the party. Beckett, Harman, Hewitt, Hodge.

Needless to say, it has begun.

[Phony Moderate]

Talking of Brown, when are the Right going to wheel him out? He's a far more liked figure in the party the Blair and is capable of a very impressive and convincing speech on his day (Citizens UK in 2010 and the "Vote No" one last year). In fact the Citizens UK one contains a lot of stuff that Corbyn is campaigning on now. http://youtu.be/6BA2Jz7xIXw

[Phony Moderate]

Talking of Brown, when are the Right going to wheel him out? He's a far more liked figure in the party the Blair and is capable of a very impressive and convincing speech on his day (Citizens UK in 2010 and the "Vote No" one last year). In fact the Citizens UK one contains a lot of stuff that Corbyn is campaigning on now. http://youtu.be/6BA2Jz7xIXw

I've seen him floated as a 'centre left' figure who could stop Corbyn. Problem is that all the well know Labour ministers are 'hated Blairites' apart from Alan Johnson. 

I was talking of the possibility of him intervening; him actually getting back into the ring would be a disaster.

[Phony Moderate]

In terms of Labour leaders and their factions, would the following
be accurate?

Miliband - Technocratic/Brownite
Brown - Right/Moderniser but more 'traditional' use of language and policy emphasis
Blair - Right/Moderniser
Smith - Traditional Right
Kinnock - Soft Left
Foot - Left ('Hard Left' doesn't quite seem to fit)
Callaghan - Traditional Right
Wilson - Soft Left/Bevanite
Gaitskell - Traditional Right

The Soft Left is the only major faction not represented in the field of leadership candidates. Such a candidate would surely be heading for a big victory right now.

[Phony Moderate]

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/07/23/just-one-in-20-corbyn-supporters-tell-yougov-lab-poll-that-the-chances-of-him-winning-ge20-was-a-key-factor/

Very interesting chart. It suggests that it will be difficult for the others to chip away at the 43% (if Corbyn is indeed doing that well). In fact at this point Corbyn probably has more potential for gains from the others than they do from him.

[Phony Moderate]

Also - Corbyn, Paxman, Clarkson and Kyle...what is it with British Jeremies and being controversial?