UK 'Brexit' Referendum on the EU

[Phony Moderate]

Probably stay, judging by the latest polls. This will be UKIP's Waterloo.

The Scottish referendum result didn't kill off the SNP (to say the least) and most of UKIP's support rise in recent years is due to issues other than the EU.

[Phony Moderate]

Heard Ken Clarke say on the news today that those who are in favour in the UK leaving the EU don't know what they're doing.

Ken, that's pathetic, patronising and wrong

Yes to AV all over again?

[Phony Moderate]

Remain will win based on the notoriously cautious (some would say spineless) attitude of the British electorate. Both of the previous UK-wide referendums result in a two-to-one victory for the status quo; it took a world war to elect a majority socialist government, it took a Winter of Discontent to elect a firmly right-wing government etc.

[Phony Moderate]

I'd add a fourth group to the Brexit coalition:

Those on the radical left who see the EU as a neoliberal institution. George Galloway, Dave Nellist and Tommy Sheridan are in this group, as was the late Tony Benn (though his nationalist instincts played a role in it for him too). Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell may also, privately, be in this group too, along with Kate Hoey and Frank Field - who are not secret about their Euroscepticsm but may be secret radical lefties (Hoey has nominated McDonnell for the leadership and Field has nominated both McDonnell and Corbyn).

Also the 'anti-Johnny Foreigner' types would also include middle-aged Northeners who voted UKIP in 2015.

[Phony Moderate]

I'd add a fourth group to the Brexit coalition:

Those on the radical left who see the EU as a neoliberal institution. George Galloway, Dave Nellist and Tommy Sheridan are in this group, as was the late Tony Benn (though his nationalist instincts played a role in it for him too). Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell may also, privately, be in this group too, along with Kate Hoey and Frank Field - who are not secret about their Euroscepticsm but may be secret radical lefties (Hoey has nominated McDonnell for the leadership and Field has nominated both McDonnell and Corbyn).

Also the 'anti-Johnny Foreigner' types would also include middle-aged Northeners who voted UKIP in 2015.

Yes ok fair enough

What do you make of Corbyn's positioning in this referendum and do you think had he followed his conscience and campaigned for the Brexit side would that have made the crucial difference in determining it's outcome?

Hard to say; Corbyn has sold out on this particular issue to a large extent but there are many on the left nowadays who are unaware of the traditional leftist opposition to Euro integration that was led by the likes of Benn, Foot and Castle; were to state his real viewpoint on the issue then those left-wing people accuse him of selling out to the right and would probably then go back to Caroline Lucas (who is a genuine Europhile from what I can tell) and the Greens. Some relatively apolitical Labour voters might be swayed by the Labour leader favouring Brexit and some right-wingers who hate Corbyn might be swayed in the other direction. Probably no overall net effect. And let's not even get into the....reaction...of the PLP if the leader declared support for Brexit.

It's obvious that Corbyn has been listening to the PR people more in recent times. Compare his performance on the Queen's birthday to the whole controversy early on in his leadership about the Privy Council.