UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Phony Moderate]

Even with the Tory polling slump they can still net atleast 390 seats so I don't know what Labour is celebrating here...

No way would they gain 60 seats on a 1-2% swing. Plausible on a 4%+ swing though.

[Phony Moderate]

Callaghan had a 19-point lead over Thatcher as preferred PM on the eve of the 1979 election. I believe Howard had better net ratings than Blair in 2005.

[Phony Moderate]

most of these older voters will die & be replaced by Corbyn style raging liberal young voters.

Who will likely get more conservative as they grow up.

We're already pretty 'conservative' - we're f***ed with student debt, dead-end jobs (or no jobs at all), uncertainty with Brexit etc. Many of us voting Labour are doing so for quite conservative reasons. If anything we'll become more Labour-friendly as time goes on.

Similarly the Baby Boomers have trended towards the Tories in large part due to them being more pensioner-friendly (well, at least until recently), rather than out of support for Austrian economics (lol).

[Phony Moderate]

Sir David Butler, the most experienced psephologist of all, was interviewed on Newsnight last night:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPfK7LKvUr8

[Phony Moderate]

Great Tory attack ad that sums up much that is wrong with Jeremy Corbyn and renders him unfit to be PM

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/868217762027536384

So why did they call the election at all when they had another three years of the term left? It has to remind one of Cameron's insistence that Brexit would be a disaster, to which a similar question was often posed.

Have the IRA hot take artists considered that the shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer has the surname "McDonnell"? There's a very substantial number of people in Britain who have Irish ancestry or who are Catholic and they tend to be Labour voters. With this in mind, the idea that this issue is going to destroy Labour in its heartlands is very strange to me.

Whatever people's memories of the IRA are, it seems that a substantial majority agree with Corbyn's premise.

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/88c1aff0-41f4-11e7-94a8-2ab0a50a8b9c/question/a76fff10-41f4-11e7-aa59-c62e889b3830/toplines

They may have weighted that, but it's still a self-selecting poll. Ergo, absolute junk.

Yeah, I'm surprised the agree percentage is as low as 53%. Possibly some right-wingers and older people not wishing to agree with Corbyn.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov/Sunday Times
Labour has dropped 2 points since last YG poll for Times but gap 2 less than last weekend.
Tory majority of 50

Other questions from that poll: http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fpwbs2u7v8/SundayTimesResults_170526_VI_W.pdf

Leaders' ratings:

May 49/40 (previous was 52/37)
Corbyn 30/58 (previous was 25/62)
Farron 20/46 (same as previous)

Responses to Manchester terrorist attack (well/badly):

May - 63/17
Corbyn - 52/19
Burnham - 46/10
Rudd - 34/18
Broadcast media - 67/17
Newspapers - 45/24

Trust more to handle security:

Tories - 44
Labour - 24
Not sure - 32

May - 49
Corbyn - 24
Not sure - 27

[Phony Moderate]

to be totally fair...isn't corbyn at the point at which nothing his voters hear is going to change their opinion anymore?

Well I don't know those 30,000 or so people in Islington North so I couldn't answer that question.

Also, it's worth noting that we don't have US-style television attack ads. The closest thing we have is party election broadcasts, but those tend to be little more than five minute chats about how great the party in question is. None of the ads above will be seen on television, only by a small minority of people on social media most likely.

[Phony Moderate]

Aren't Jews also overwhelmingly anti-Brexit?

Well not on the basis of those figures.

[Phony Moderate]

Jeremy Corbyn Said to Take Part in U.K. TV Debate Tonight

Amber Rudd is standing in for Theresa May.

[Phony Moderate]

As David Butler has pointed out this election has seen the biggest ever in-campaign Lab/Con polling shift; there is simply no way that this has been caused purely by more young people telling pollsters that they will vote.

He was on Newsnight the other day; seemed in pretty good nick.

[Phony Moderate]

Sigh this is a load of drivel. They have Labour getting 30% in Bridgwater and West Somerset for example. For a bit of context they didn't even get that in 1997 even when the boundaries were better for them (boundary changes in 2010 took in the monolithically Tory Exmoor).

Labour might get some surprisingly high percentages in some Southern Tory seats but yeah that seems high.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov poll of London:

Lab - 50% (+9)
Con - 33% (-3)
Lib Dems - 11% (-3)
UKIP - 3% (-3)
Greens - 2% (-1)

Would would make the better Prime Minister?:

Corbyn - 37%
May - 34%

[Phony Moderate]

The Ipsos poll has no breakup, age wise, area wise, gender wise & it is very difficult to say if it is credible.

It does, but it's in a difficult format; it requested WinRAR when I tried to open it.

Ipsos-MORI (well, it was just the latter until a few years ago when it merged with Ipsos) is, btw, the oldest player in town when it comes to British polling. 

[Phony Moderate]

The Ipsos poll has no breakup, age wise, area wise, gender wise & it is very difficult to say if it is credible.

It does, but it's in a difficult format; it requested WinRAR when I tried to open it.

Ipsos-MORI (well, it was just the latter until a few years ago when it merged with Ipsos) is, btw, the oldest player in town when it comes to British polling. 

Can you type the age, gender, area wise voting for different parties etc break-up when you get some time as well as the Voting % considered for Young people, so that we can see if there are some shifts happening !

It wouldn't let me open it even after unWINRARing it, sorry.

[Phony Moderate]

Calls for the suspension of the election seem to be increasing. It's being pointed out though that the Guildford Pub Bombings took place five days prior to the October 1974 election.

[Phony Moderate]

Former Cameron advisor Steve Hilton: May responsible for security failures, calls on her to resign: http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/steve-hilton-david-camerons-former-strategy-chief-tells-theresa-may-to-quit-over-terrorism-failures-a3556811.html

[Phony Moderate]

He is what he is.

If he was to come to power, it would potentially create a world crisis. I think that'll weigh heavily on voters' minds when they vote. As well as potential coalition partners'.

Who's in the White House again?

[Phony Moderate]

The choice for UK voters on Thursday is clear: steady May or a terrorist-cuddling traitor.

The same 'steady May' whose government throws money at the Saudi Arabian regime? The same 'steady May' who has overseen huge cuts to the police? The same 'steady May' who gave a state visit offer to Trump just days after he took office? The same 'steady May' who has made the only major U-turn during a general election campaign that the veteran psephologist Sir David Butler (who has been writing about elections since 1945) can recall? The term 'steady' no longer applies to May and this is reflected in her personal ratings now.

If the Tories win on Thursday it'll be because of backpocket issues anyway, not matters of foreign policy.

[Phony Moderate]

Indeed again very funny (and totally surprising of course) that Left-Wingers cry about "racism" because Diane Abbott, who is the only person in the world who lets Maxine-Waters and Nancy Pelosi look smart, is called what she is: The most incompetent and dumb politician ever, unfit to run an ice cream store and a threat to every British citizen.

Thank god, the nightmare will be over tomorrow and for the next 5 years, Britain will prosper and get their freedom with Brexit.

I voted Leave and I don't think we'll get anything approaching prosperity; the dear people in Brussels are too smart (in a malicious kind of way) to let that happen.

[Phony Moderate]

Tories are pulling away post terrorism.

Huh what? I've seen all sorts of movements in either direction (and none at all).

In terms of today's polls, Lab up by 5 in one, Lab down by 3 in another, Tories down by 3 in another.

[Phony Moderate]

And Labour will end this campaign without a single poll lead.

Rumours about an upcoming Survation poll suggest otherwise, but we'll see.

[Phony Moderate]

Kerry ahead wasn't exactly ASB (to use an acronym of another forum) - Bush only won by 2.4% and flipping 60,000 votes in Ohio would have won it for Kerry.

[Phony Moderate]

But I'm sure that after tomorrow, when the Tories predictably win a majority of 50 or so, people will start rewriting history and act like Labour was about to win in a landslide until the attack happened and people suddenly shifted back.

Labour was surging in every poll and now they're dropping in some. YouGov they dropped 3. Not to mention Corbyn's been knocked totally off message since he wanted to talk economic policy.

NO THEY WEREN'T, the polls haven't shown any clear movement since the past two weeks at least.

The Manchester attacks was around then.

YouGov were the first to show anything approaching hung parliament territory - and the poll in question was conducted after Manchester.