The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

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Christie now refuses to say whether he supports amnesty, even though he's been quite vocally pro since becoming governor. I doubt this matters too much in the primary, given his much heavier baggage and the fact that there isn't a rival who strongly disagrees with him on it.

And so the slow slog to the right begins already for Christie. I really didn't think he'd start so publicly less than a week after his re-election.

[Badger]

Cillizza's ranking: Christie, Rand, Cruz, Walker. Says that he's hearing conflicting things about Ryan, who's apparently considerably dialed back his interest from September, so is now ranked at #9.

The most telling thing about this list? Who there other than Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan--neither of whom I suspect will run, and in Ryan's case it probably wouldn't make much difference anyway--has much chance to syphon support from Christie as opposed to Cruz or Paul? Maybe Walker, though I suspect his confrontational take no prisoners style will appeal to the stauch conservatives than Christie. Ergo it seems more likely the right will again have the difficult task of not splitting itself so much it can't stop the Eastern Establishment guy with money from winning.

Also, Christie has been more consistantly conservative on social issues and has far less a liberal governing history than Romney ever did, but Mitt still wound up the nominee. He's about one Obama hug during Sandy away from having more right wing cred than Romney ever did.

[Badger]

H

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/jeb-bush-2016-election-99798.html

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Sounds like some folks are working hard beind the scenes to keep Christie from becoming the de facto establishment choice early on.

Still doubt Jeb runs, but it's got to weigh on his ming that 2016 is surely his last chance to run (unless he gets tapped for Veep).

[Badger]

What does Bush bring to the table that Romney didn't?

Electability. He doesn't have nearly the same aura of "out of touch billionaire patrician" that Romney did. Notwithstanding "Jeb's"--that is "John Bush's"--being born to one of the most influential and connected New England old wealth families.

[Badger]

Paul will meet top Romney donors in Boston next week.

That seems a very "odd" combination. How does Paul find common ground with these types, or at least moreso than his competitors? Why would Romney-types donate to Paul rather than....well, almost any other serious contender?

Rubio's K Street donor base grows.

So, not dead yet after all?

[Badger]

Contrary to the prevailing narrative, Real Clear Politics' Tom Bevan argues that there are five reasons Hillary won't run for president in 2016 (these are all direct quotes from Bevan):

1. "She's just not that good at campaigning."
2. "The “fire in the belly question."
3. "It ain’t gonna be a coronation."
4. "Obama is leaving a mess."
5. "The country wants real change."

As noted, this is a really weak argument. There is only one true factor governing whether Hillary will run, get the nomination in a cakewalk, and (baring serious economic slowdown or the similar national crisis) have about even odds to win in November: At her age, does she want to go through all that and serve potentially 8 years at the toughest job in the world?

(Before anyone accuses me of sexism for referencing her age, I'd say the same about any male candidate who'd be pushing 70 at the 2016 election. I'd say the same about Biden if I thought he was a viable candidate).